SEC Rookie Coaches Bat 50-50 In First Seasons
August 10th, 2009 ║ Posted By: John Pennington ║ Permalink ║ Tags: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
How will Gene Chizik, Lane Kiffin and Dan Mullen do this fall?
That’s the question I’ve been asked most often while doing radio shows across the SEC. It seems everyone is interested in the league’s class of rookie head coaches:
Gene Chizik, the surprise hire who shows little personality, but who used high-profile recruiting tactics to get Auburn noticed.
Lane Kiffin, the pot-stirring bad boy who hired the most expensive assistant coaching staff in the country.
And Dan Mullen, the upbeat salesman who’s got the pedigree of a champion, but who inherited the least amount of talent.
What can be expected from those three men? I went into the history books to see if I could get an idea of future success based on past performances.
From 1994 through 2008 (that’s 15 years, right on the button), there were 28 rookie coaches in the SEC. I tallied their first-year records and found the interesting numbers you’ll see below.
There were coaches who inherited good talent and good programs (Les Miles at LSU, Urban Meyer at Florida).
There were coaches who inherited bad programs with little talent (Bobby Johnson, Lou Holtz).
There were coaches who inherited NCAA penalties which made their first seasons more difficult (Mike Shula, Rich Brooks, Sylvester Croom).
And there were a few miracle-workers who turned in surprisingly good first-year results (David Cutcliffe, Houston Nutt twice).
Here’s the full list:
| 1994 |
B. Scott |
S. Carolina |
6-5-0 |
| 1995 |
G. DiNardo |
LSU |
7-4-1 |
| 1995 |
R. Dowhower |
Vanderbilt |
2-9-0 |
| 1995 |
T. Tuberville |
Ole Miss |
6-5-0 |
| 1996 |
J. Donnan |
Georgia |
5-6-0 |
| 1997 |
M. DuBose |
Alabama |
4-7-0 |
| 1997 |
H. Mumme |
Kentucky |
5-6-0 |
| 1997 |
W. Widenhofer |
Vanderbilt |
3-8-0 |
| 1998 |
H. Nutt |
Arkansas |
9-3-0 |
| 1999 |
D. Cutcliffe |
Ole Miss |
8-4-0 |
| 1999 |
L. Holtz |
S. Carolina |
0-11-0 |
| 1999 |
T. Tuberville |
Auburn |
5-6-0 |
| 2000 |
N. Saban |
LSU |
8-4-0 |
| 2001 |
D. Franchione |
Alabama |
7-5-0 |
| 2001 |
G. Morris |
Kentucky |
2-9-0 |
| 2001 |
M. Richt |
Georgia |
8-4-0 |
| 2002 |
B. Johnson |
Vanderbilt |
2-10-0 |
| 2002 |
R. Zook |
Florida |
8-5-0 |
| 2003 |
R. Brooks |
Kentucky |
4-8-0 |
| 2003 |
M. Shula |
Alabama |
4-9-0 |
| 2004 |
S. Croom |
Miss. State |
3-8-0 |
| 2005 |
U. Meyer |
Florida |
9-3-0 |
| 2005 |
L. Miles |
LSU |
11-2-0 |
| 2005 |
E. Orgeron |
Ole Miss |
3-8-0 |
| 2005 |
S. Spurrier |
S. Carolina |
7-5-0 |
| 2007 |
N. Saban |
Alabama |
7-6-0 |
| 2008 |
H. Nutt |
Ole Miss |
9-4-0 |
| 2008 |
B. Petrino |
Arkansas |
5-7-0 |
Add those totals up and you’ll find that rookie SEC coaches have gone 157-171-1 in the last 15 years.
That averages out to 6.1 wins and 5.6 losses per season.
Round those digits and you’re looking at a 6-6 average for first-year SEC coaches.
In fact, of those 28 first seasons, 14 have been winning and 14 have been losing.
So, if history is any guide, fans at Auburn, Mississippi State and Tennessee can expect mediocre inaugural campaigns under their new coaches this fall.
I don’t think fans of those three schools will be too upset with average first seasons. The odds are that at least one of the new coaches will eventually have some level of success at his new school.
But here’s the big question: Will the SEC’s trio of new coaches be better than the dreaded class of 1997? Hal Mumme, Mike DuBose and Woody Widenhofer are best known for probation, probation and losing, respectively.
Hopefully Chizik, Kiffin and Mullen can afford a similar fate.
