Alabama-Texas: By The Numbers

 Send This Story To A Friend

As Alabama and Texas gear up for the BCS Championship Game — and SEC fans count down to a possible fourth national title in a row — we thought we’d provide you with a by-the-numbers look at the game that you won’t find anywhere else.

For you math geeks and stat freaks out there, here’s a long list of interesting tidbits to make note of heading into tonight’s game:



1.  Alabama and Texas both come into the game 13-0, but we wanted to weed out some of the bad teams both have played.  On the whole, the Crimson Tide faced 9 teams with winning records this year (not counting Chattanooga of the FCS).  Texas faced just 7 opponents who finished with winning seasons.  But when we look at opponents who finished with at least 8 wins, both Texas and Bama faced 6 such teams.

Sure, Central Florida skews things a bit, but the overall results are very similar between the two teams.

Alabama went 6-0 against the 8+ win teams on its schedule.  Average score = 28.8-13.8.

Texas went 6-0 against the 8+ win teams on it schedule.  Average score = 30.0-12.1.

Can’t get much closer than that.



2.  Below you can see just how well Alabama and Texas did against their best competition.  First, a comparison of the two offenses:

What stands out?  Alabama rolled up more yardage against their top opponents than Texas did — which is a bit of a surprise since Texas is considered by most to have the better offense.  UA tallied 2510 yards of offense against their 6 winningest opponents.  Texas recorded just 2023 yards of offense against their 6 winningest foes. 

While the Longhorns were still able to put plenty of points on the board, their yardage dropped against the best teams they played.  Just something to think about as they gear up for Bama’s stingy defense. 

The two teams were within a touchdown of each other in points scored (Texas 180, Alabama 173) and their 3rd down conversion rates were quite similar, too (Texas 41 of 94, Alabama 36 of 95). 

But there WAS a difference in turnovers.  While Texas coughed up the football 11 times against their 6 best foes, the Tide gave away the ball just 4 times.  Again, you might want to file that one way for tonight.



3.  Now, let’s take a look at how the squads fared defensively against the 6 winningest teams they played.

The two teams defensive performances against 8+ win teams were very similar.  Yardage allowed (Texas 1432, Alabama 1541), points allowed (Texas 73, Alabama 83), and 3rd down conversions allowed (Texas 19 of 83, Alabama 17 of 72) were darn near neck-and-neck.

The difference appears once again to be in the turnover category.  But this time the advantage goes to Texas.  The Longhorns forced 18 turnovers against their toughest foes, the Crimson Tide recorded 12.

Something will have to give in the turnover battle.  While Texas forces ‘em, Alabama doesn’t commit them.  So can the Longhorns force UA into mistakes it hasn’t been making all year?



4.  Here are just some straight comparisons for you:

5.  Here’s one to highlight.  Below you’ll see how Alabama and Texas performed offensively against teams that ranked in the Top 40 nationally in defense:

Two pretty clear observations come to mind: Alabama’s offense shows very little drop off against good defenses… while Texas’ offense does decline. 

The Longhorns faced just three teams with Top 40 defenses and not once did they tally more than 275 yards of total offense.  Also, of the 41 points Texas put up against Oklahoma State, 14 came off of interception returns for touchdowns.

Clear advantage: Alabama.



6.  Okay, now let’s flip-flop things.  Below you’ll see how the Texas and Alabama defenses performed against those opponents who ranked in the Top 40 nationally on offense:

First, it’s obvious that the Big 12 is the league of offense while the SEC is the defensive standard-bearer, no?  Second, toss out North Texas and UTEP and the results are similar.  The Longhorns did give up big numbers to Texas Tech and Texas A&M, but Alabama’s overall offensive numbers don’t compare to those of the Red Raiders and Aggies.

Slight advantage: Texas.



7.  Finally, we’ll provide you some side-by-side comparisons on statistics that we feel might make a difference in tonight’s game:

Final Observations:

Games aren’t played on paper, but if they were, we would give a sizeable advantage to Alabama.

Against the winningest teams on their schedules, Alabama outperformed Texas in total offense yardage and in ball security.

Texas does force more turnovers than Alabama, but we have a hard time believing they’ll force the much more sure-handed Tide into mistakes tonight.

Also, while Alabama’s offense did well against Top 40 defenses, Texas had its three worst performances of the year against Top 40 defenses.  That doesn’t bode well for their chances of moving the ball against Rolando McClain, Terrence Cody, et al.

On the whole it appears that Texas is the more mistake-prone of the two teams.  Texas gives away more penalty yardage (nearly 14 yards per game more than UA) and more turnovers (23 on the season compared to Alabama’s 10).

Going into the game, most would assume that Texas would hold the advantage in the passing game, but a quick look at the numbers shows that that’s not so.  Alabama’s offensive pass efficiency rating is very close to UT’s, but the Tide holds a big advantage in defensive pass efficiency.

Also, the Longhorns give up more sacks than Alabama.

If there is a weak link for the Tide, it’s the same bugaboo that haunted Nick Saban’s boys for most of the year — red zone production.

The Tide made 55 trips to the red zone this year and scored touchdowns on just 25 of those chances.  Texas, meanwhile, logged an amazing 40 touchdowns in 56 trips inside their opponents’ 20.

The problem for the Horns is this: they allow more trips to the red zone on defense than Bama does… and they’re also more likely to give up TDs once they’re backed inside their own 20.

We at MrSEC might have to eat these words later tonight… but the numbers sure seem to point to an Alabama victory in Pasadena.

And to a fourth straight national championship for the SEC.

Join the forum discussion on this post - (1) Posts