Expansion And The SEC: The Danger Of Playing It Safe

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It’s unusual to see the words “The Danger Of Playing It Safe” strung together.  Playing it safe is supposed to result in — wait for it — safety.

At least that’s what people in the newspaper industry thought. 

In the mid-90s, most publishers told themselves the following: “We’ve been THE choice for news for more than a century.  We make huge profits.  Nothing is going to change.  No one one is going to start getting their written news from a little plastic box.”

Newspapers played it safe.  “Internet?  To heck with the internet.  We’re focused on our newspaper operations.” 

Only people did start to get their news from computers… and then laptops… and then cell phones… and who knows what next?  The newspaper industry has gone from a rich, dominant leader to a business model on life support in less than two decades.

So everytime I read a columnist who says the SEC “doesn’t need to expand,” I cringe.  The SEC might not want to expand.  Personally, I don’t want the SEC to expand.  But want and need are two different things.

I want to live on pizza.  I need to eat a few vegetables.  I want to blow my money on good times and fun.  I need to save my cash for retirement.

The SEC might not want to expand, but if everyone else expands, it will indeed need to expand.  And expand wisely.  Or else it will run the same risk that newspaper publishers ran when they tried to play it safe.

“We’ve been THE choice for sports for decades.  We make huge profits.  Nothing is going to change.  No one is going to start watching Big Ten or Pac-16 football over SEC football.”

There’s danger in them thar words, folks.

The SEC has raised the bar when it comes to college sports and, more importantly, college sports profits.  The league’s championship game is a financial windfall that most leagues want to copy.  The SEC’s dual television contracts from Summer 2008 gave the conference’s schools big cash advantages over most other schools in the country.

Not surprisingly, the other leagues are working to catch up, pass by, and set a new benchmark for success.  That happens in business everyday. 

The Big Ten — with its own television network — believes it can secure its cash leadership position for generations if it can bring in the right mix of schools.

The Pac-10 feels that it can zip to the top of the sporting world with mega-expansion, too.  That league is even taking a proactive approach when it comes to marketing itself.  Commissioner Larry Scott has his eyes set on making cash in Asian markets.

But the SEC is good to just stand pat?

The Big Ten already has bigger schools with bigger alumni bases in bigger television markets.  It already makes a tad more in network television money than the SEC.  Let it grab some brand names like Nebraska and Notre Dame and some more television markets (like St. Louis, Kansas City and New York) and that league will have an even bigger lead on the SEC in terms of revenue.

I keep reading and hearing that the SEC currently will make $3 billion in television revenue over the next 15 years, therefore, all’s well. 

All things being equal, I would agree with that.  But it doesn’t look like all things will be staying equal.

Suppose that with expansion the Big Ten puts itself in a position to make $4 billion over 15 years.  How’s the SEC’s $3 billion look now?  And don’t think it can’t happen.  Two years ago, people (including myself) would have laughed at the idea of the ACC cutting a bigger per-year deal with ESPN than the one the SEC had just cut.  I hear no laughter now.

As big as the Big Ten might become, a potential Pac-16 is the big monster to fear.  Divided along old Pac-10 / Big 12 lines (old Pac-8 teams in one division, six Big 12 teams plus Arizona and Arizona State in the other), that league has a chance to grow dynamically while still allowing teams to continue to play the vast majority of their games close to home.  For all the talk of Texas A&M having to travel to Washington State, that would be a rare occurrence.  The Aggies would play most of their games against their five old Big 12 rivals and the not-so-far-away Arizona schools. 

A Pac-16 would grab eyeballs from the Mississippi river to the Pacific Ocean.  Enormous television markets would be inside the league’s giant boundaries.  And a Pac-16 would include some of the most highly-respected and well-funded universities in the nation.

Do you really think a league with Arkansas, Mississippi State, Tennessee and a newcomer like Clemson could stack up?

I’m guessing some of you just said to yourselves, “The SEC will always be the king of football.  That’s where the money is.  That’s where the TVs are.  So the money will always be rolling in and the SEC will remain king.”

But there’s an iceberg-size hole in that Titanic of a thought.  If other leagues set themselves up to make more money than the SEC — not only possible, but likely — then those league’s schools will make more money over time than the SEC’s schools.

That’s more money for coaching salaries, facility upgrades, recruiting trips, etc.  The SEC currently has the highest-paid coaches and the best football stadiums in America.  If other schools pay their coaches more and build bigger, nicer stadiums, doesn’t it stand to reason that they would move to the top of the football world?

Of course it does.  Unless you have your head in the sand.



The SEC raised the bar on college sports revenue with bold moves and bright ideas.  Now the Big Ten and Pac-10 are trying to raise it again.  The SEC can either let them raise it and do nothing… or it can do what it’s always done and raise the darn thing again.

All things being equal, I would like to see the SEC remain a 12-team league.  But if major changes occur, the SEC will have to attempt to keep pace. 

So please, please stop writing and saying that the SEC should stand still even if other leagues expand.  That’s exactly what newspaper publishers said in mid-90s.

Sure there would be a risk involved in expanding.  But the risk of trying to fight the tide and play things safe would be even greater.

Kevin Bacon knows what I’m talking about.