The Winners And Losers If The Big 12 Stays Together

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Just a few quick thoughts on who’ll stand to win and who’ll stand to lose IF the Big 12 stays together with 10 teams…


Biggest Winner:  Texas

The Longhorns can continue to rule over their very own backyard conference.  They can earn millions more from their own television network.  Plus they got rid of two of their most disgruntled neighbors.  If the Big 12 was a Texas-centric league before, it might as well be called the Longhorn League at this point.  It’s good to be the king.


Winner:  Oklahoma

The Sooners won’t cash in on California recruiting, but they’ll stay arm-and-arm with Texas.  OU’s apparent goal in all of this was to remain the Robin to Texas’ Batman.  Holy success, Batman.  And TV money on par or greater than that of SEC schools’ is a plus, too.


Loser:  Texas A&M

Oh sure the Aggies will make more money from a new television contract — if the rumored numbers are correct — but they will also go right on serving as Texas’ longtime punching bag.  A move to another league could have given A&M a chance to differentiate itself from UT in terms of recruiting — “We play in a better conference!”  Instead, Texas will be able to continue to tell recruits — “We beat them every year.”


Loser:  Colorado

The Buffaloes will benefit from California recruiting.  The fact that Southern Cal looks to be down for a while will also help.  But the Buffs likely jumped the gun in hopes of landing huge television dollars.  A Pac-16 with Texas and Oklahoma would have brought that.  A Pac-12 with Utah added?  Not so much.  It’s likely their old Big 12 mates will make more cash than they will.  Bitter irony.


Loser:  Oklahoma State

In the Pac-16, OSU would have likely gotten an equal split of television revenues.  That won’t happen — it appears — in a rebuilt Big 12.  And they won’t be able to recruit California, either.


Losers:  Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas State

Some will call these schools winners because if things work out with the Big 12, at least they’ll have a roof over their heads.  But the little guys were unhappy with the Big 12 to begin with because they didn’t receive as much money as the big boys.  That will continue.  Expect the gripes to continue to, only now they have ZERO leverage.  Don’t be surprised if we’re not hearing about some of these schools looking for the exit door five or 10 years down the road.


Winner:  Nebraska

So long, Texas.  The Cornhuskers are a northern fit with the Big Ten schools.  They’ll benefit financially and in reputation from their association with such an academically strong conference.  Don’t forget, Penn State added hundreds of millions of dollars in research grants when it joined the league.  The Huskers should benefit on the field and in the classroom.  You might not care about the classroom angle, but I can tell you that the president of Nebraska does.


Loser:  Boise State

The Broncos joined the Mountain West in hopes of getting closer to an automatic BCS bid.  If the Big 12 is saved, the Pac-10 will likely grab Utah.  That means the MWC will be no closer to an automatic bid than it was when BSU jumped.


Winner:  Dan Beebe

For now at least Beebe can call himself the man who saved the Big 12.  But he’s also likely to rule over a league where every school looks suspiciously at every other school.  While schools in the Big Ten and the SEC typically act in concert, the Big 12 (or whatever it will be called) is likely to see schools pout and point fingers at each other for years.  Will Baylor forget that it was about to be dumped?  Will Texas A&M be forgiven for looking at the SEC?  Will Missouri ever be forgiven for its open flirtations with the Big Ten?  Beebe will be the winner today if the Big 12 is saved.  But his job will only get tougher.


Winner:  The Big Ten

The league added one of the best brands in college football to its stable.  That will mean more money for the Big Ten Network.  It also added a school that fits athletically and academically.  Win and win.


Loser:  The SEC

Just a month ago, the SEC was viewed as the richest league in America.  But expansion coverage has shown that the league actually ranks a tad behind the Big Ten in terms of network television revenue.  With Nebraska’s name to sell, the Big Ten will probably bring in even more cash for its network in the future.  The ACC also signed a bigger per-year deal with ESPN than the huge package the SEC signed with the network two years ago.  Now the Big 12 is moving near or past SEC dollars, too.  Why care?  Because SEC schools would like to have a cash advantage on outside competitors.  Now schools in other leagues will be just as likely to spend big bucks on coaches and facilities.  Also, the SEC came within a whisker — it seems — of establishing a beachhead in Texas.  For recruiting and television that would have been huge.  But apparently it wasn’t to be.

(Update — I’ve been getting a lot of emails saying, “But this is what the SEC wanted!”  True.  The league did not want to expand.  But the league never expected other conferences to catch them and/or move past them in terms of revenue.  Also, the opportunity to break into Texas would have been worth a lot of dollars and a lot of recruits.  Even though it’s what they wanted, this is a bit of a loss for the SEC.  At this point.)


Winner:  ABC/ESPN or Fox

The Big 12 currently has a deal in place with ABC/ESPN.  It’s likely that that network or Fox (which lost out on the ACC’s package last month to ESPN) helped to keep the Big 12 together.  With television networks throwing such huge dollars around for college football, it shows just how much money television networks MAKE off of college football.  Some folks — either ABC/ESPN or Fox executives — are celebrating in a boardroom right now.


Winner:  Traditionalists

For those folks who didn’t want expansion to begin with, congratulations.  It appears that widespread paradigm-busting change has been averted.  For guys like me, that’s a good thing.


Winner:  Notre Dame

Credit the Irish.  They looked into the eyes of the Grim Reaper and never flinched.  Mass expansion and realignment might have forced Notre Dame into the Big Ten once and for all, but with things slowing down, it appears that they can maintain their independence for a few more years to come.


Winner:  The Media

A lot of folks will spend a few days jokingly asking if the Big Ten will become the Big 12 and the Big 12 the Big Ten.  You’ll see that everywhere.  See?  I just did it myself.