The Master Speaks: Sun Tzu Likes The Tide On Saturday

 Send This Story To A Friend

Twenty-five hundred years ago, a man named Sun Tzu rose to military fame in China.  His writings (“The Art of War”) and principles for warfare have become must reading for everyone from small business owners to Wall Street execs to football coaches to actual, you know, generals.  Google the words “Steve Spurrier” and “Sun Tzu” and you’re sure to find that the the latter is a favorite of the former.

Sun Tzu — if he actually existed, some historians doubt it — once wrote that by asking seven questions before a battle, he could forecast victory or defeat before that battle ever began.  Looking for a different angle to all the Alabama-Florida hype out there, I thought Sun Tzu’s areas of assessment might be a good starting point when it comes to “analysis” of this weekend’s midseason Super Bowl.

Without further ado, I give you Sun Tzu’s questions:


1.  Which of the two sovereigns commands the Moral Law? 

As Jerry Lundegaard might say, “What the heck d’ya mean?”  Well, in Sun Tzu’s writings, Moral Law is what causes people to be in complete accord with their leader.  Popularity is a simpler term.  Translated into football-ese, the question would read as follows:  “Which leader is most likely to have his men follow him into battle and trust in his decisions?”

Both teams — and fanbases — believe fully in their coaches.  No doubt, both teams would follow their coaches into battle against anyone, anytime, anywhere.  Which means we’re going to have to do some hair-splitting on this one.

Urban Meyer’s team has tasted defeat since Nick Saban’s has.  In fact, Meyer’s team had defeat served to it by Saban.  Therefore, if one group is going to have an inkling of doubt when faced with adversity on Saturday, you would have to say that it would be the Gators. 

In addition, Saban has been with his team non-stop from last season on.  There has been no quick retirement followed by a reversal, no leave of absence.  Again, if we’re talking about minute cracks in the overall armor of trust, it would seem that Florida would have more mental fissures than Bama.  (Armor of Trust, by the way, would make a great name for a band.  I’m just saying.)

Advantage:  Alabama (barely)


2.  Which of the two generals has the most ability?

This question is pretty straight forward but the answer is anything but.  Meyer has become one of the fastest coaches to ever reach 100 victories.  He has won two national championships with two different styles of offense (passing with Chris Leak, running with Tim Tebow) in a three-year span.  All while coaching in the nation’s toughest conference.

Saban, however, is the first coach since World War II to win two national titles with two different programs.  He won both after rebuilding projects.  He accomplished both in the span of less than a decade.  And he also did it while coaching in America’s top football conference.

Meyer took over a roster that boasted some solid talent left behind by Ron Zook.  Saban took over a roster that had been pared down by NCAA sanctions.

Advantage:  Alabama


3.  To whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth?

Heaven means the weather situation.  Night, day, cold, hot.  At 8pm ET Saturday in Tuscaloosa, the forecast calls for clear skies, little wind and a temperature of 69 degrees.  Hard to see the weather playing a factor in this one.

Earth means the terrain of the battleground.  While the playing surface itself will be similar to every other field in existence, the fact that it will be surrounded by a defeaning crowd of crimson-clad crazies puts this category in the home team’s pocket.

Advantage:  Alabama


4.  On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced?

I could take a cheapie and simply say, “Check the police blotter,” but off-field discipline hasn’t hurt Florida to date.  (Unless you count the distraction caused by Carlos Dunlap’s DUI arrest prior to last year’s SEC title game.)

Let’s talk about discipline in football terms.  When it comes to turnover margin, Florida is +8 on the season.  That’s tops in the SEC.  Yes, they’ve lost five fumbles and managed to bungle numerous shotgun snaps, but those 12 interceptions through four games more than make up for those self-inflicted wounds.

Meanwhile, Alabama is third in the SEC in turnover margin at +3.  Like Florida, the Tide offense has turned the ball over six times, but their defense hasn’t been as ballhawking as the Gators’.

When it comes to penalties, Florida gives up about five more yards per game than Alabama.  That doesn’t make up for the turnover category.  Discipline — on-field discipline at least — goes to the reptiles.

Advantage:  Florida



5.  Which army is stronger?

Great question, Sun Tzu, and we won’t truly know the answer until Saturday night.  (And even then we’ll need to wait until December to get our final answer.)  For now, let’s look at the record book.

Alabama has won 18 games in a row.  They have beaten eight straight ranked opponents.  Read that again.  Eight straight ranked opponents have fallen to the Tide.  One of those ranked opponents was Florida, 32-13, in last year’s SEC Championship Game.  As of right now, the numbers are tilting pretty clearly in one team’s direction.

Advantage:  Alabama



6.  Which side has the most highly trained officers and men?

When talking about the men (players), let’s give the final say to the SEC’s coaches.  In July, the league’s coaches named 10 Florida Gators to their preseason All-SEC team.  Only three, however, were listed as first-team.  Alabama had fewer players named overall (nine), but six of the Tide’s choices were first-stringers.  Sorry, but that’s just too close to call either way.

Let’s turn to the officers (assistant coaches).  Both Meyer and Saban like to surround themselves with lieutenants who know their systems.  Makes sense… their systems are highly successful.  So successful that we’ll answer this question by counting national championship rings.

Of Saban’s nine current assistant coaches, not one was on his 2003 national title-winning LSU staff.  No rings there.  But eight of the nine did serve as assistants on last year’s championship staff.  (Secondary coach Jeremy Pruitt was promoted into an full-fledged assistant’s role this offseason, but that doesn’t count in our book.)  Add ‘em up and that’s eight BCS title rings for Saban’s officers with Saban.

Of Meyer’s nine current assistant coaches, only three served on his 2006 national championship squad — Steve Addazio, Stan Drayton and Chuck Heater.  As for the 2008 staff, Addazio, Heater and Dan McCarney collected rings.  (Drayton left Florida after 2007 and returned this year, missing the ’08 championship.)  That’s a grand total of six rings for Meyer’s officers while they served with Meyer.

Both men have one protege serving as a head coach in the SEC (Meyer has Dan Mullen at Mississippi State and Saban has Derek Dooley at Tennessee), but that has no impact on Saturday’s game and I don’t really know why I chose to mention it.  Nevermind.

Advantage:  Alabama


7.  Which army serves rewards and punishments most consistently?

Sorry, Gator fans.  Looks like Sun Tzu wants to talk about Florida’s off-field issues after all.  Whose system of rewards and punishments is clearer and fairer?  You tell me: Is Chris Rainey still on Florida’s team or isn’t he?

Don’t blame me.  Blame Sun-Tzu.

Advantage:  Alabama


When you add it up, six of Sun Tzu’s areas of pre-battle assessment favor Alabama.  Come Saturday, we’ll find out if ol’ Sun Tzu knows as much about SEC football as he does military theory.


(By the way, this seems to be just the kind of thing that a CBS producer might take note of.  So if the fine squad of Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson and Tracy Wolfson decide to mention Sun Tzu’s prediction, well, a little name-dropping for MrSEC.com would be appreciated.  Yeah, it’s called begging.)