SEC Tournament Scenarios: The Race For The #2 Seeds

 Send This Story To A Friend

Alabama and Florida have already wrapped up the SEC’s division titles and the tournament byes that go with them.  But the races for the #2 seeds in each division — and those byes — are still hotly contested.  And about as clear as mud.

Below are the bye scenarios in the East and in the West.  We’ve been writing and re-writing this piece all day, and there’s just no easy way to lay things out.  That said, here’s our best effort…


SEC East Race For #2:

Vanderbilt (9-5) — remaining games at Kentucky, versus Florida
Kentucky (8-6) — remaining games versus Vanderbilt, at Tennessee
Georgia (8-6) — remaining games versus LSU, at Alabama
Tennessee (7-7) — remaining games at South Carolina, vs Kentucky


Scenario One (Vanderbilt) — If Vanderbilt wins both of its last two games, the Commodores land the #2 seed and the bye.  (Tough to do.)

Scenario Two (Vanderbilt) – If Vandy wins one of its last two games and Kentucky and Georgia also split their final two games, VU lands the bye.  (Probably the most likely scenario.)

Scenario Three (Kentucky) – If Vanderbilt and Kentucky finish tied for second place, a tie-breaker would be used.  The first tie-breaker in a two-team tie is head-to-head records and the two teams would have split their two contests.  The second tie-breaker is division record.  UK would hold that advantage by one game… and thus Kentucky would earn the bye.

Scenario Four (Vanderbilt) — If Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia all finish tied for second place, the best round-robin record between those three teams would survive.  Vandy would be 3-1, Kentucky would be 2-2, and Georgia would be 1-3.  Vandy would get the bye.

Scenario Five (Tennessee) — If Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia and Tennessee all finish tied for second place at 9-7, the best round-robin record between those four teams would survive.    Tennessee would be 4-2 versus the others while UK and VU would be 3-3 with UGA standing at 2-4.  Tennessee would get the bye.

Scenario Six (Tennessee) — If Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Tennessee finish tied for second-place at 9-7, the best round-robin record would survive.  Tennessee would be 3-1, Kentucky would be 2-2 and Vandy would be 1-3.  Tennessee would land the bye.

Scenario Seven (Vanderbilt) — If Vanderbilt and Georgia finish tied for second place at 10-6, Vanderbilt’s 2-0 record versus Georgia head-to-head would land Vandy the bye.

Scenario Eight (Kentucky) — If Kentucky and Georgia finish tied for second place at 10-6, the two teams would have split their season series.  The next tie-breaker is division record and UK would easily hold the advantage.  Kentucky would get the bye.

Scenario Nine (Kentucky) – If Kentucky wins its last two games while Vandy loses its last two (one would be head-to-head, of course) and Georgia splits its last two, Kentucky would grab the bye.

Scenario Ten (Georgia) — If Georgia wins its final two games while Vandy loses its last two and Kentucky splits its last two, Georgia would earn the bye.


SEC West Race For #2:

Arkansas (7-7) — remaining games vs MSU, at Ole Miss
Mississippi State (7-7) — remaining games at Arkansas, vs South Carolina
Ole Miss (6-8) — remaining games at Auburn, vs Arkansas


Scenario One (Arkansas) — If Arkansas wins its last two games to finish alone in second place, the Razorbacks would earn the bye

Scenario Two (MSU) – If Mississippi State wins its last two games to finish alone in second place, the Bulldogs would get the bye

Scenario Three (MSU) — If Arkansas beats MSU and loses to Ole Miss, MSU beats South Carolina and Ole Miss beats Auburn, all three teams would finish tied for second place at 8-8.  The tie-breaker would be the round-robin record of the three teams involved.  MSU would be 3-1, UM 2-2, and UA 1-3.  Mississippi State would earn the bye.

Scenario Four (Ole Miss) — If Arkansas beats MSU and loses to Ole Miss, MSU loses to South Carolina and Ole Miss beats Auburn, Arkansas and Ole Miss would finish tied for second place at 8-8.  Ole Miss would be 2-0 against Arkansas head-to-head and the Rebels would grab the bye.

Scenario Five (MSU) — If Arkansas loses to MSU and beats Ole Miss while MSU loses to South Carolina, UA and MSU would finish tied for second place at 8-8.  MSU would hold a 2-0 record head-to-head against Arkansas and would land the bye.

Scenario Six (MSU) – If MSU beats Arkansas and loses to South Carolina while Ole Miss wins its last two games (including a head-to-head battle with Arkansas), MSU and UM would finish tied for second-place at 8-8.  MSU would hold a 2-0 head-to-head record against Ole Miss and State would get the bye.


Overall, it’s obvious Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Arkansas control their own fates.  Everyone else needs a whole lot of help.