A 13-Team SEC Schedule Is Not At All Ideal

September 27th, 2011 12:48 AM║ Posted By: John Pennington ║ Permalink ║ Schools: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Tags: AUB, LSU, SEC, UK

With Texas A&M officially in the fold, the Southeastern Conference is preparing for a 13-team football season next fall. Someone, somewhere, is working on schedules for basketball, baseball, and all the lower-profile sports, too. We don’t envy any of those folks.

Below you’ll find a complicated breakdown of what a 13-team football schedule might look like. It’s a complicated read because it’s a complicated issue. It’s a terrible situation, to be honest with you.

We at MrSEC.com did not anticipate the SEC actually stopping at 13 and frankly we do not believe that the league expected to get stuck on unlucky 13 either. We were told by SEC sources from the get-go that 13 would automatically mean 14.

Sure, Mike Slive planned to be patient. Yes, the SEC wanted to avoid being the league that pulled the plug on the current conference set-up. And yes, the SEC also knew that if it raided — we’ll say — the ACC it could have led that league to grow to 16 teams in response… which would have set off a chain reaction… that could have then forced the SEC to expand to 16… something the league wants to avoid. Follow?

But just looking at how awkward a 13-team season might be, you can be certain this was not the SEC’s dream scenario.

Some will say that the Big Ten existed for two decades as an 11-school league and that the SEC can easily follow suit. Only that league did not have a championship game, a two-division set-up, or 13 paranoid fanbases who were just sure that their teams were somehow getting the short end of the stick from the league office on every issue.

No matter what the SEC does, there will be complaints. There will be outrage. There will be cries of favoritism. There will be conspiracy theories. Long-term, the SEC office might not care. But in the short-term, it figures to a be a very noisy year (or longer) at SEC Headquarters.
For an example of how a 13-team football schedule might work we turned our eyes to the Mid-American Conference. In 2007, Temple joined that league and pushed it into its current 13-school set-up. Next year — while the SEC is shifting to 13 teams — the MAC will add UMass and expand to 14 schools, ending its unbalanced system.

In the MAC, there are currently seven teams in the East Division and six in the West. More than likely, the SEC would feature seven teams in the West and six in the East.

As is the case in the SEC, MAC teams play an eight-game conference schedule. Obviously, the perfect scenario is for each school to play five division opponents and three games against foes from the other division. But in a 13-team league, three teams in the larger division must play six division games (and just two non-division contests) for the sake of math. There’s no way around that fact. It’s simple arithmetic.

So Job One for the SEC will be determining which four West Division foes would not play next year. That will also be Point Of Contention #1. Imagine the moans and groans that will arise if a school gets to avoid an Alabama, an LSU or an Arkansas in 2012.

Cecil Hurt of TideSports.com broke down a schedule using this format last week. In his scenario the Alabama-Ole Miss and the Auburn-Mississippi State games would be nuked from next year’s docket.

Naturally, all currently protected East-West rivalries would be kept on the schedule: Alabama-Tennessee, Arkansas-South Carolina, Auburn-Georgia, Florida-LSU, Kentucky-Mississippi State, Ole Miss-Vanderbilt.

(Sidenote — For those pulling their hair out over the possible end of the Alabama-Tennessee rivalry, don’t fret. Even if the SEC adds a 14th school at some point and Auburn moves to the East Division, the SEC would likely go to a nine-game conference schedule — over coaches’ objections — just like the Big Ten and Pac-12. That would allow each school to protect an extra cross-divisional rivalry each year. Georgia AD Greg McGarity spoke on that subject with The Macon Telegraph last weekend: “It’s critical that the Georgia-Auburn series stay intact in football. I can’t imagine that being displaced or being discontinued. I think your traditional rivalries are always going to be there. Tennessee-Alabama, count on that.”)

In Hurt’s plan, Arkansas, LSU and Texas A&M would all play six division games and just two cross-divisional games. Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State — as well as all of the teams in the East Division — would play the usual five-three schedule.

This is where another issue arises. The NCAA rulebook states that in order to hold a championship game, a league must have two divisions of at least six teams each and each school must play a round-robin divisional schedule. The NCAA has allowed the MAC to skirt that bylaw and hold its title game despite the fact that four teams in one seven-team division do not actually play a full round-robin schedule. It’s likely the SEC would be given the same pass.

Ready for another issue? We reached out to the Mid-American Conference last week and spoke to a senior member of that conference’s management team. We were told that the issue of tie-breakers also becomes a trouble spot because not all MAC East Division teams (West Division teams in the SEC) play each other in a year.

Got a headache yet? You should try writing this.
Below is an example of how next season’s SEC schedule might look using Hurt’s plan — Arkansas, LSU, Texas A&M playing six-game divisional schedules — as well as the cross-divisional rotation the SEC has employed the past 10 years. The table shows only the foes for each school. We do not even attempt to work all of this out on a week-to-week calendar. So don’t read it as Week One, Week Two, Week Three. We’ll leave that to some other poor stooge.

(Sidenote — The SEC has told some media members that the SEC’s cross-divisional rotation is spelled out in this year’s media guide, but the league chose to show what the cross-divisional rotation has been from 2002 through 2011. It did not include any hint of what the rotation would be moving forward, which would be a lot more useful in a conference media guide. Also, only two SEC schools — Georgia and Ole Miss — have posted their full future schedules online which is very much out of the ordinary. Perhaps it’s a coincidence that 90% of the league’s sources went quiet with regards to future SEC schedule rotation in the very same summer that the league added a new team… but there are likely a few X-Files-watchers out there who’ll find that to be a bit too coincidental.)

SEC West	Cross-Div	Cross-Div	???	Div	Div	Div	Div	Div
Alabama	UT	VU	UGA	ARK	AUB	LSU	MSU	TAM
Arkansas	USC	UK	ALA	AUB	LSU	MSU	MISS	TAM
Auburn	UGA	UF	VU	ARK	AUB	LSU	MISS	TAM
LSU	UF	USC	ALA	ARK	AUB	MSU	MISS	TAM
Miss. State	UK	USC	UT	ALA	ARK	LSU	MISS	TAM
Ole Miss	VU	UGA	UF	ARK	AUB	LSU	MSU	TAM
Texas A&M	UK	UT	ALA	ARK	AUB	LSU	MSU	MISS

SEC East	Cross-Div	Cross-Div	Cross-Div	Div	Div	Div	Div	Div
Florida	LSU	AUB	MISS	UGA	UK	USC	UT	VU
Georgia	AUB	ALA	MISS	UF	UK	USC	UT	VU
Kentucky	MSU	TAM	ARK	UF	UGA	USC	UT	VU
S. Carolina	ARK	MSU	LSU	UF	UGA	UK	UT	VU
Tennessee	ALA	MSU	TAM	UF	UGA	UK	USC	VU
Vanderbilt	MISS	ALA	AUB	UF	UGA	UK	USC	UT

In case you’re wondering, the games coming off of next year’s anticipated 12-team schedule would be:

Alabama-Ole Miss
Auburn-MSU
Arkansas-Tennessee
LSU-Kentucky

Overall that whole thing is a red and blue mess. And though we’ve triple-checked our typing, it’s possible we’ve typo’d somewhere in that table because it’s late, we’re tired, and it’s taken us three days to lay out all these complexities in what we hope is a format that a non PhD can follow.

Oh, and there’s one other issue we’ve yet to mention: Arkansas and Texas A&M will have to rush out and find one more non-conference opponent for themselves. Their annual battle in Arlington, Texas will become a conference game next year, opening up a non-conference slot on each team’s schedule. (For the record, we hope the Aggie-Razorback game remains in Arlington as a neutral site game for years to come. And with Jerry Jones kicking out major bucks to both schools, we expect that will be the case.)

The SEC continues to say that a 13-team schedule won’t be a problem. Former Mississippi State athletic director and current SEC consultant Larry Templeton says the league’s athletic directors will meet soon to hammer out these scheduling details.

“We’ll wait until we visit with athletic directors to talk about process and how they envision us handling the schedule,” Templeton told The Jackson Clarion-Ledger. “We’ve got some basic concepts and decisions to make that we haven’t been able to make until now. And now we need to do that.”

So throwing out fan discord, how should we all expect a 13-team schedule to work out? Here’s what our source in the MAC front office said:

“How well has the format worked for our league? It’s worked so well that we went out and added another football member beginning next year. This extends our footprint, however, (and) also balances our divisions!”

The exclamation point was his.

Suffice to say, a 13-school league is not ideal. For that reason, we expect the SEC hopes it can quickly find a 14th school just as the MAC has. In fact — as we’ve noted many times before — we believe the SEC had hoped a good 14th school would have presented itself already.

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38 comments

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DancingBobcat

You show Auburn as their own opponent in its 2nd division game. I think you meant to have ALA there instead.

deltaboy

Although I am not a fan of conference expansion mainly because of the impact on established rivalries, what's done is done & the SEC obviously can't stop at thirteen. My order of preference for #14 would be Florida State, Clemson, Va. Tech & Missouri. The obvious scheduling remedy at that point would be to require 9 conference games instead of 8. That would compel most schools to substitute one of their 3 or 4 annual cupcake games for another real game without disrupting existing rivalries. That's a win for everyone except perhaps the coaches & they're compensated well enough to bear that burden.

Rob

My preference would have been for teams in the Western division to play 1 more game then teams in the East. I can only guess that future non-conference engagements prevent that from being a reality right now, but should we be stuck with 13 teams for a while, I hope we eventually do it that way. I can't think of any reason why each division must play the same number of games.

Joe Davis

A 14 team conference is where the SEC is headed. The conference will manage with 13 until the right team comes on board. Something that is not being addressed on this board (and elsewhere) is what exactly is the conference looking for? Besides the obvious market expansion. Texas A&M is perfect for the SEC because of the unique qualities of the institution; academics, athletics, fan base and location. Missouri is also a great fit in the new SEC for the same reasons. Texas would be another option, though maybe not the best choice, all things considered. Maryland, UNC, and Georgia Tech have the same qualities, though GT would not bring the new market the conference is looking for. Who does this leave? Virginia, Duke, Rice, Tulane. They are all members of the Association of American Universities, located in the south with solid athletic programs, although adding one of these schools would be on par with adding another Vanderbilt, no offense intended to the students of these fine institutions. When you consider everything the SEC is looking for in expanding the conference, Missouri makes the most sense.

Dave Eason

A 9 game conference schedule is NOT going to happen.......ever. It creates an unbalanced schedule as far as home and away games are concerned and the coaches are all against it. Get that out of your head.

rmft

so you play 5 home games 1 year and 4 the next- its not that hard. it rotates, like a home and home schedule does, every other year

rmft

------------

So glad to hear you say that. As I'm sure many of you noticed, I've been one of the guys literally pulling my hair out at the possibility of this. Hopefully now, I can get a little more sleep tonight. I always assumed they would take care of the important rivalries, but the more rumors and bs you read, the more you realize just about ANYTHING is possible

johnmrsec

rmft...

I would be shocked if a rivalry that was once the SEC's biggest was knocked from the schedule. Anything can happen, but I think the SEC realizes -- better than other leagues -- that its oldest rivalries are part of what makes the league special.

I don't THINK the SEC would nuke an Alabama-Tennessee or Auburn-Georgia, for example, as the Big 12 once blew up Oklahoma-Nebraska. (Personally I think the bad karma from that move has played a role in the Big 12's turmoil ever since!)

John

rmft

John

Regarding the ARKANSAS v A&M game next year:

I could be mistaken, but I swear I remember two weeks ago either Colorado or Utah playing one of the Arizonas or UCLA or someone... (sorry I can't remember the details any better than this)

But anyway, they game was a previously schedule OOC game, and even though both teams were now in the Pac 12 Conference, that game was not counted as a conference game

So they played an Out of Conference game... between 2 Pac 12 members

My question is am I correct on this? and if so do you think the SEC would take a similar approach to the Arkansas/A&M game. The only difference may be that the 2 Pac 12 schools may have been in different divisions, and I think all division teams have to play a round robin with all other teams

johnmrsec

rmft...

It was Colorado vs California and that game was deemed a non-conference game.

To be honest, I don't know what the SEC is going to do schedule-wise. From the folks I've talked to... they don't know exactly what they want to do at this point.

John

Cory

I like the idea of having Texas A&M play four east and four west teams... Counts as SEC Conference games for A&M, but not for the other SEC teams. If they have a better record than an East or West team, then let them go. The games can be home/away with a split revenue or work tham at neutral sites somewhere in the middle and split the revenue.

I am also for Texas A&M playing all 12 teams next year.... If they have enough bodies at the end of the year they can play in the SEC championship game... Welcome to the SEC Baby!

Another idea... If you get to a 16 team league are you allowed to have four divisions with a four team tournament for the SEC championship?

how about...

Let's just play everyone in the conference. 12 SEC games. Top two go to Atlanta. Forget OCGs.

Snarlton

I like that a lot. But teams with a traditional non-conference rivalry won't like it.

GP for Bama

This is the best idea yet. Then just scrap the Championship game ...we would already have a true champion.

theNetSmith

"Arkansas and Texas A&M will have to rush out and find one more non-conference opponent for themselves."

Hopefully, the Ags will keep t.u. on the schedule going forward, maintaining both our historic rivalry AND A&M's tradition of cream-puff OOC games.

rmft

I posted something below on the same subject,

but I remember either Utah or Colorado, playing a game against a Pac 12 opponent (maybe arizona or ucla or something)

and because it was a previously scheduled out of conference game, that it wasn't counted as a Pac 12 conference game and has no bearing on their conference record

pretty weird... 2 conferences teams playing an Out Of Conference game. But unless I had just had way too much to drink that night (entirely possible) It happened

Adam

You're wrong about one thing: the MAC does not only count divisional games in the standings. It counts the full league schedule. In 2007, that's what they did, but that's because in 2007 teams played different numbers of league games. That year (the first with Temple in the league), the East Division teams all played a full 6-game round robin, and then there was an inconsistent number of games that were available for East Division teams to play against West Division teams, so only the divisional games counted in the standings.

johnmrsec

Adam...

You are correct. Thanks for catching that. Rather than spend more time breaking down when those games were counted and when they weren't, we've simply removed that paragraph.

Again, thanks for the catch,
John

Adam

I would also note: I have yet to get an explanation for how the MAC is skirting the rule that requires round robin, regular season competition. I sent an e-mail to the NCAA and they said they could not comment on specific circumstances and that I'd have to contact the MAC. I tried to send an e-mail to the MAC, but all of the e-mail addresses I could find on their website bounced back (I assume they have an e-mail whitelist or something on their server that blocks messages from unknown addresses). I have been left wondering since whether they're getting by because they toil in relative obscurity, but that if a major league (like the SEC) tried this, it would not be allowed by the NCAA and the MAC would have to return to the 2007 format of actually following the rules.

HoustonVol

I think as long as the SEC can present plans to the NCAA that it does intend on expanding to 14 teams, but wants to go about it in a systematic way to prevent a collapse of a conference. In this scenario, the NCAA would grant a waiver. As for the MAC, the NCAA really does not care. They know the MAC is providing homes to way ward schools and having unbalanced schedules is better than having a school wondering the streets at night without a home.

johnmrsec

Adam...

They were given clearance by the NCAA and the SEC anticipates getting the same clearance.

John

johnmrsec

First, we don't allow outside links in the comment boxes -- too many people put ads and free plugs on our site with those links.

Second, we'll go by what Roy Kramer has stated publicly, the SEC called the NCAA about a title game -- based on the rule in question -- and the NCAA supposedly responded that that rule -- for smaller sports and smaller schools -- was not written for big leagues to create football title games.

If you disagree with that, great. We get it. The MAC title game is the scourge of our time and you demand answers as to why they're not being forced to play a true round-robin schedule. More power to ya. We invite you to raise a ruckus and stamp it and the SEC title game out because they violate the letter of the NCAA's rule. Heck, call Kenneth Starr and file suit against the NCAA.

But we're moving on to other things.
John

johnmrsec

Adam...

That rule was set up for smaller sports and had never been connected to football until someone in the SEC office noticed it. I continue to say this isn't worth losing sleep over, but that's just me.

Best of luck in your quest.

And thanks for reading,
John

Adam

You make it sound like it had been around for decades in a dusty corner of the rulebook when the SEC "discovered" it in 1992. But the rule was new then; it had been enacted in 1987.

What disturbs me is that a rule which is plain on its face is not being scrupulously adhered to and we don't have a solid explanation for why. What next? A waiver for the 12-game limit? If the NCAA wants to drop the "round-robin schedule" part of the rule, that's fine, because that would be through the actual legislative process, as opposed to modifying the rule in a totally sub rosa way without any legislative oversight. If the schools want to overtly modify the rule, that's their prerogative, but I find it very troubling that it can be modified without legislative oversight and nobody explains who made that decision. A bureaucrat in Indianapolis? (If so, who? From where do they derive their authority? Did anybody vote on this?)

johnmrsec

Adam...

That's hardly an important rule. It's been on the books for years and the SEC discovered it while expanding in 1992. According to ex-commissioner Roy Kramer, the NCAA was't thrilled that the SEC was planning to take advantage of the rule to create a football title game.

If I were you, I'd take the Sheriff Taylor view and drop the Deputy Fife view. In the grand scheme of things, that rule is hardly worth getting "very disturbed." There are no victims here.

If anything, the NCAA should just drop the "round-robin schedule" part of the rule and replace it with a "must play eight conference games" clause.

Thanks for reading,
John

Adam

What form did that "clearance" take? Was it a waiver? What NCAA body took action on that waiver? What are the terms of said waiver? I find it very disturbing that a rule which is plain on its face is not being obeyed and we don't have a clear indication of EXACTLY how permission was obtained to ignore the rule.

Gil

Actually, A&M needs three new non conference opponents next year. Arkansas is in conference now, they are going from nine conference games to eight, and if I'm not mistaken they already had an open slot to fill before they left the Big 12. Right now it's just SMU.

oksana

If Texas A&M played four in the east and four in the west they would, presumably, have to take the place of an out-of-conference game on each conference opponent's schedule. Most of those games would be home games on the conference opponent's schedule.

Obviously, A&M will not play 8 road conference games

The four conference teams who go to College Station would have to forego the home game revenue and pay off the OOC team they are ditching at the last moment. This is going to get expensive in the short term. For scheduling purposes, the Ark./A&M game should be considered a home game for A&M. The other 3 A&M homegames will be very problematic for the conference scheduling gurus

Bill

Jonhn,

Why not temporarily leave the divisions as they are, and have Texas A&M play four SEC West teams and four SEC East teams out of conference for those eight teams, but they would count as in conference games for A&M--and if A&M finishes with a better record than the either division champion, they will replace that team in the championship game? Seems like the best scenario temporarily.

AllTideUp

You still have to account for the extra games that the current members would be playing. Would the original 12 go to 9 games with A&M only playing 8? Well, you definitely can't do that.

No matter how you slice it there will be issues.

Gatormoss

John

Assuming we do not get an aggreable and best fit addition like VT or NC this year how long do you think the SEC should wait before it settles?

One would think that the WV pause may indicate the SEC is willing to wait, but some consider flirting with Missouri an indication we are ready to settle.

Thanks

Gatormoss

johnmrsec

Gatormoss..

I think it's clear the SEC isn't ready to settle. Missouri makes business sense so if the Tigers join -- while it might not make a big splash -- it can't be called settling.

If the SEC is still at 13 next summer and no one is knocking on the league's door, then you have to wonder if WVU gets accepted. But we'll have to see what the Big East does to survive first.

John

gatormoss

Thanks John!

I'll wait till summer for your new list ranking possibilities. I really think there is a semi gentleman agreement. I do not think Florida, Georgia or South Carolina would not absolutely rule out GT, Clemson, FSU, but I bet there are number of schools that could be better or slightly less attractive that Florida, Georgia and South Carolina would like to see given time and opportunity and still not come to the SEC before they would be willing to take GT, Clemson and FSU. Everyone like your list.

gatormoss

kdiddy35

I am still a believer that the next member or SEC will be either Virginia Tech or Florida State. For obvious reasons, adding Va Tech gives the SEC another television market as well as a n educational platform. With FSU its very simple. The conference would gain an very consistent football team that is back on the rise. Although the Tallahassee market is small as an immediate tv market, plenty of people follow FSU football nationally. Adding a premier team to the east division would also allow Auburn to play in the west. I don't know if this will all come to fruition, but I surely do hope so.

Lainey Cothran

Have patience. Put A&M in the West one year, the East the next, and by 2014, an ACC or Big East or Big XII team will be begging to join ...

johnmrsec

Lainey Cothran...

No one's against patience. We're just pointing out that a 13-team schedule is not ideal. And that fact is supported by the words of a high-ranking official in a conference that's been using a 13-team schedule.

Thanks for reading,
John

johnmrsec

John,

I think the SEC wanted to avoid raiding leagues. It's been suggested to me by SEC sources that they threw open their doors expecting ACC schools to beg in -- as A&M did from the Big 12 -- but that did not occur. In fact, the ACC went out and added teams. That's what I've been told.

And I can promise you that sticking at #13 was not the goal... regardless of what Mike Slive says. The league will have to add a team at some point. If no one comes forward next summer, then what?

Is that overplaying his hand? I don't think so because he just added about 8 million cable households to the SEC footprint with A&M. But the whole thing is clunky right now.

If Missouri turns out to be #14, that's a solid get. But you can be sure it's not the splashy "get" that the SEC initially had hoped for.

Thanks for reading,
John

B. Roberts

John,
do you think Slive may have overplayed his hand regarding #14? Is it possible VT and FSU simply want no part of cut-throat alley as far as a football schedule?

Trackbacks

Alabama | MrSEC.com says:

September 27, 2011 at 2:16 am

[...] league is waiting to see what other leagues do before expanding to 16 teams.14. Don’t miss our breakdown of how a 13-team SEC schedule might look next year. (It ain’t real pretty.)15. And finally, former West Virginia coach Don Nehlen [...]

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September 27, 2011 at 10:42 am

[...] MrSEC notes, you could easily get a headache trying to figure out how the SEC is going to make a 13-team [...]

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September 27, 2011 at 6:01 pm

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Conferencepocalypse II: Missouri compromising | Iowa Highway Ends (etc.) says:

September 27, 2011 at 8:33 pm

[...] everybody unbalanced. Until the SEC lands a 14th team — and the SEC has to find a 14th, because 13-team scheduling is a nightmare — this isn’t [...]

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October 1, 2011 at 11:03 am

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October 2, 2011 at 9:51 pm

[...] a 13 team football schedule. For better and more well thought out ideas, check out Mr. SECs plan (short version: use the MAC’s current 13 team scheduling as a guide) and Team Speed [...]

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October 8, 2011 at 10:02 am

[...] a 13 team football schedule. For better and more well thought out ideas, check out Mr. SECs plan (short version: use the MAC’s current 13 team scheduling as a guide) and Team Speed [...]

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Alabama | MrSEC.com says:

October 14, 2011 at 2:17 pm

[...] Templeton discussed with Solomon, were first mentioned on this site back on September 27th. You can read that piece here. For that post we spoke with a high-ranking MAC official off the record because the MAC has been [...]

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December 28, 2011 at 2:03 pm

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