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Qustion: now that things have slowed down a bit with the Baylor Kamakazie manuever, what now? Any timetable projections? At the very least, is there any certainty left that TAMU will definitely be joining the SEC, just a matter of time?

Gig 'Em
Fightin Texas Aggie Class of 1989
Whoop!

The point is that sometimes what is gained can't replace what was lost. It doesn't mean the end to the sport, but little by little it might chip away at what makes the sport so important to its fans.

Also, as to those who say there was room for three. The Big 12 wasn't going to be the Big 14 – that would have meant one of the three northern schools, KSU, KU, or Mizzou, becoming a Big 12 south school and that was not going to happen as all three consider the others deep rivals like Texas and OU. The Big 12 worked because OU and Texas wanted to play each other every year and OU wanted to be in Texas as much as possible for recruiting purposes (sound familiar as to one of the reasons the SEC wants to be there).

Yes, as I stated the Aggies are gone from Big 12 that much is abundantly clear. The Aggies are just crazy enough to make all of their other sports sit out a year; they are that far down the line. However, this not about the Aggies – its about millions of dollars in revenue per year for Baylor, ISU, KU, and KSU and what OU wants. Once OU and UT get this figured out – the Big 12 will survive and hopefully will never have to talk about realignment ever again.

The math adds up if you accept the basic premise however, the starting assumptions are completely bogus making the premise dubious at best.

Thanks, and Gig 'Em.

Ultimately, the SEC, Big Ten and Pac will be the three top conferences, with 16 members each. The ACC and Big 12 will survive as second-tier leagues in reconstituted form, and Notre Dame will remain an independent. For political purposes, no current BCS member will be kicked out of the coalitiion.

The ONE good thing that could happen in this is…… the Super conferences COULD organize a NEW ruling body to replace the NCAA. This would eliminate the ’favorites’ that the NCAA has. That’s not enough though….. The Presidents of the FBS schools could do that NOW!

There are limits, and college football is going beyond one of the limits if they expand to 14 or 16 teams.. Either the teams within a conference will NOT play each other, or the number of games will have to be increased to accommodate the increase in the number of teams. The SEC has to rotate (2) teams every year just to play all the teams in the ’other’ division every (3) or (4) years. College players ARE STUDENT ATHELETES! They are NOT PROS. There are OTHER sports that college students play that are being crowded out now. A GOOD change would be to divide the 120 FBS (DIV-1A) teams into (10) 12 teams conferences and then devise a playoff that the fans were clamoring for earlier this year. This would be a good change That would give the BOWLS games to put on each year.

Please explain why Texas A&M is responsible for Baylor at all. Baylor has been feasting at the table of the A&M's, OU's and UT's and to a lesser degree, Tech and OSU for the entire existence in the Big XII that was forced by the Baylor alum Gov. Ann Richardson.

Secondly why threaten A&M? In reality A&M has nothing to do with conference instability and Baylor knows it as does the rest of the Big 12. It is the reason that everyone did originally sign off on A&Ms withdrawl from the Big XII and it's soliciting of the SEC. It wasn't until Baylor heard rumblings from OU and others about 'checking out options' that Baylor launhed it's attack and threat and at who. OU?, UT? KNOW A&M?!??!??! Really.

Thirdly, the TV contract is with the Big XII and the only reason it even happened is because A&M stepped up and said they did not want to go to the PAC. Thus giving the BIg XII a chance to renegotiate a contract with Fox. Furthermore do you really think contract would of been anywhere near what it is if A&M was not there? So Baylor once again is attempting to hold A&M hostage to continue to feed them when they have brought nothing to that table themselves. Even then there is no signed contract of commitment for this new Big 12-2. Dr. Loftin made it very clear that his commitment to the conference was bracketed with this very important statement, "as in it's present condition".. So when UT started pushing the envelope what did Baylor do? Nothing, nothing at all, nor did anyone else in the Big XII.

4. Finally it has been publicly stated that A&M's removal from the conference would not lead to it's dissolution. So now Baylor threatens to sue the SEC and A&M for that very thing? Really? What Baylor has done here is not only legally weak it is wicked. They have attacked the one party in this who not only held the conference together last year but has done everything above board and in the light all the way through. Why don't they threaten to sue tu, OU or the Pac if they go. What does A&M have anything to do with this at all!

Thanks to the Big East's successful "struggle for life", their being willing to exist as a platypus (an "east coast"conference with teams in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Texas) rather than gracefully accept being a dodo (as the national media "encouraged" them to do) they are going to outlive the Big 12. Which means that no matter what happens to the Big 12, Kansas basketball will have an AQ conference to go to. That is a good thing and not a bad thing, right?

teams out: Tulane, Sewanee, G Tech

teams in: Arkansas, South Carolina

So you could argue that the SEC teams that matter, the ones that make the SEC what it is have all been there since the beginning of the conference, That core of teams has been there since the beginning. Cant say that about a lot of other conferences

I think thats why there is more SEC pride than there is for other conferences, because for the most part its been the same 10 teams for 75 years, which is why the traditions and rivalries here are unlike anywhere else in college football

The Big East survived the struggle for life, no?

we all want to change the world

No problem. Wouldn't expect to write anything without someone quibbling.

We stated that these were major conference moves. When one conference loses a team, another conference gains a team. But let's cut the number in half — even though that's not completely accurate. That would still mean one team would move every 2 years (on average)… rather than every year.

Our point was that teams have been coming and going and traditions changing for years.

Thanks for reading the site,
John

Since you're going to defend Baylor under every post on this site, you might want to buy a sense of humor. That way you can do your spinning on the serious stuff and not on the funny stuff like the post above.

And for the record, I grew up the son of a Baptist minister.

John

10 of the 12 schools were founding members!! Thats actually not much change at all considering its been 75+ years

very interesting article

I appreciate you reading, but that wasn't the topic of the above piece. We're talking about the incredible overreaction to the process. Baylor's lawsuit wasn't really mentioned.

John

Best line I've read all day.

John

BTW, if Boren doesn’t shoot his mouth off last Friday about leaving for the Pac-12 – Baylor probably signs off. Once TAMU’s leaving starts the dominoes, Baylor is going to stop you in anyway it can.

So this about two things – athletic dollars and enrollment AQ vs non-AQ. The athletic dollars we know call it about $10MM. The real money though is in enrollment.

The key is the assumption of how much AQ vs non-AQ enrollment loss is for Baylor. My source tells me the scenarios used were between 15% and 33% for Baylor going to a non-AQ. Type in whatever you want but quite a few young people choose their school based partially on athletic conference.

Now the math:

Best Case Scenario
Baylor loses 5% of their new undergraduate population going forward 12,500 x 5% = 625.
Current tuition and fees are $38,279, assume Baylor students pay ~40% of that $16,000.

Enrollment Loss: -625 x $16000 = -$10,000,000
Athletics Loss: -$10,000,000
= -$20,000,000

Now let’s do worst case scenario:
Both Baylor grad and undergrad lost 25% of 15,000 = 15000 x 25% = 3750
Assume Baylor students pay ~50% of that $20,000.

Enrollment Loss: -3750 x $20000 = -$75,000,000
Athletics Loss: -$10,000,000
= -$85,000,000

This does not take into account future loss of alumni donations, research grants, rising price of tuition, etc., etc. Throw in your own numbers but that’s the equation Baylor is facing and the reason Baylor will not let TAMU go and are more then happy to take 100 years worth of Aggie hate.

Also, those numbers are probably what the SEC is most afraid of in terms of a lawsuit. Baylor may only have 5% chance of winning the lawsuit, but that lawsuit is going to start at roughly 1 billion. =PV(.10,100,100,000,000) x .05
Expected Value = -$50,000,000

Thus I come back too, if TAMU wants Baylor’s sign-off on its move to the SEC then its in A&Ms best interest to help find Baylor find a spot otherwise we are going to all be here for awhile.

From Jeff at FrankTheTank:
A Brokered Deal
I think all of this might lead to a brokered deal. The Iowa State’s and Baylor’s of the conference have no place to go. But they also realize the Big 12 is going to blow up. If I were them, I would work on a negotiated termination of the Big 12 Conference that lands all the leftovers in the Big East. It probably isn’t exactly what the Big East wants but they would probably take the bad with the good. In an ideal situation, the Big East ends up with KS, KS St. Mizzou, Iowa State & Baylor. That leaves them with 14 schools. It probably isn’t everything the BE wants but they might go for it given that their tv contract is up in November of 2012. Texas A&M, Texas, Tex Tech, OK, & OKie State might all have to pitch in and send a big check to the Big East, but that is probably the best outcome for everybody.

Their alma mater's should be checked into.

As an aside I will second the notion/motion that no matter how everything shapes up I wish that Baylor isquickly and irreversibly vanquished to the long dark and lonley road athletic perdition.