Comments on: Expansion By The Numbers 3: Total State Population

By: chitownrolltide

chitownrolltide — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 00:46:09 +0000

I completely understand your accessment of population by state as a factor in your overall determination, too bad that isn't acknowledged in the replies. But as an accessment tool, its the least important determinent in the overall equasion. Since you identified major markets it might have been helpful to gather nielson data (as if that were readily available) to show number of viewers in that market that actually watched college football and specifically the ratings for a school in question. A recent article I read indicated that the viewership for Bama football games in B'ham was a whooping 85 share. Having lived in Jax, FL for 20 years I had determined that outside of UF, FSU & UGA (in that order) Bama had the largest alumni within the metro area. So, your attempts are to be commended but the research to be relied upon would need to be much more detailed and thorough.

By: Jack Edwards

Jack Edwards — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 15:01:41 +0000

Any chance you could include projected population?

By: Homepage | MrSEC.com

Homepage | MrSEC.com — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 17:47:48 +0000

[...] 3: Total State Population [...]

By: Homepage | MrSEC.com

Homepage | MrSEC.com — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 13:14:02 +0000

[...] Part 3: Total State Population provided an indication of the number of potential fans, cable households, and future students/alumni/donors living in a school’s home state. [...]

By: Jason

Jason — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 19:34:11 +0000

I currently live in Tallahassee and can confirm that. I lived in Greenville, SC about 20 years ago. At that time, Clemson fans were a lot more passionate than USC fans. Not sure if that has changed in the past 20 years or not.

I agree with the Miami assessment. Not sure about Georgia Tech versus Georgia. I am sure that UGA has a large fan base in Atlanta, but I certainly think that GT would add a lot more.

By: Stan Cardwell

Stan Cardwell — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 18:37:51 +0000

i would suggest counting alumni in some way rather than state population alone. a state that imports students then sends them back to their homes states still has tv sets pointed toward their alma mater – likewise parents of these students and spouses. likewise a state school could educate their own but have to send them to other states for work. so state population doesn't increase but footprint of the school does.

i think state population is a little to myopic – undergrads and alumni need to figure in the mix OR at the very least divide the state population by the number of Div 1 programs located in it? How many in Texas? How many in Florida.

Then there's the case of a school like Rutgers. Huge population base, alumni, but kids go to school there so they can buy Giants and Jets tickets when they graduate. The Northeast is basketball and pro football other than PSU and NotreDame

By: Ben

Ben — Sat, 01 Oct 2011 22:25:01 +0000

To go along with the other comments, You can not give Ole Miss and Miss State both the 2.9 million, Ut and Vandy splitting the state of Tennessee, or Auburn and Alabama the whole state of Alabama individually. This population post is completely biased numbers. If you wanted to do a true population analysis you would at the very least have to divide each states population by major college programs located in that state.

By: AllTideUp

AllTideUp — Sat, 01 Oct 2011 18:54:44 +0000

I'm not sure about some of those teams. Miami is more of a pro sports town than a college sports town and it's probably more of a beach/party town than it is a pro sports town. Miami can get decent attendance for a home game, but nothing special. There are several teams in Miami that attract the attention of the people than the Canes.

I've got a good friend who is an UGA grad and regularly attends games. He's told me multiple times that when UGA and GT hook up in Atlanta that half of the stadium is filled with UGA fans. Along with that, GT's stadium isn't that big in the first place. All of the people I've ever known from Georgia or the Atlanta area tell me that GT fans just aren't that passionate and there just aren't that many of them. There are probably more fans of other SEC schools(even excluding Georgia) in Atlanta than there are GT fans.

I'm not sure about the other schools. I think Clemson and FSU have pretty good fan bases though.

By: MikeTheTiger

MikeTheTiger — Sat, 01 Oct 2011 02:26:42 +0000

I appreciate that this is intended solely as a rough guide to the value that a school potentially brings in expansion. If I could, I'd like to add my own interpretation to some of the numbers. Let's take LSU as an example. The state's 4.5 million population is down the list, but LSU is the only top tier college football program in a college football mad state. That 4.5 million base is much stronger than schools from states with multiple BCS schools and schools from states like NJ, NY and Conn where college football is an after thought. Attendance, tradition and success on the football field speak to LSU having a much stronger population base than this measure and the previous would suggest. If LSU were not in the SEC and I were looking just at population base, I would put them ahead of all of the possible expansion candidates for the SEC including A&M and Missouri. Texas takes a greater share of the population in Texas and Missouri shares KC with KU and KSU along with KC and St Louis being pro sports towns first.

By: Jason

Jason — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 21:23:29 +0000

Football: 61% of football fans living in the metro area cheered for Louisville first. 21% of football fans living in the metro area cheered for Kentucky first. There are potentially 800,000 tv sets in the metro Louisville area that the SEC is not currently reaching. Restated, there is at least 20% of the state's population located in Louisville that UK is not reaching for SEC football.

Basketball: For basketball, the breakdown wsa 57% Louisville versus 33% for Kentucky. Closer, but not by much. The main point here is that UK gives you a foothold in the Louisville market, but falls far short of locking up that market for the SEC. (I personally hope that UofL goes to the Big XII, but that is another post.)

I am sure that if you ran the numbers for Miami, Clemson, Florida State, USF, and Georgia Tech, you would find similar results.

By: Jason

Jason — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 21:23:15 +0000

There is definitely a "Rutgers Fallacy" effect. I can use Louisville and Kentucky as a statistical example since I used to live in that state and know about the stats of the area. The author gives all of Kentucky's 4.3 million people to UK. However, the population of metro Lousiville is around 1.4 million. So 30% of the state of Kentucky lives in the Louisville metro area. Is UK pulling in that 30% of the state population? Bluegrass Polling conducted a scientific poll in 2005, and found the following results.

By: AllTideUp

AllTideUp — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 16:54:22 +0000

He was only giving credit in this area to schools that are currently outside the SEC footprint. Schools within the current footprint don't add to the cumulative population that could be reached.

By: Reality_check

Reality_check — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 16:15:52 +0000

Just because a state has more TVs and people, doesn't mean people are tuning in to watch those schools. Let's call it the fallacy of Rutgers – giving them "credit" for NY, Philly, Baltimore and the entire population of the state of NJ is a joke. Take a look at the percentage of graduating seniors within a state that would even consider going to the state school. NJ = VERY LOW. This is the value of schools in states like Kansas, West Virginia, and Iowa.

By: Rick

Rick — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 16:07:05 +0000

Interesting that you gave TCU credit for the entire state of Texas and none of the schools at the bottom, (Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, S. Florida ) were given equivalent treatment. Oversight or manipulation?

By: Jassy

Jassy — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 15:42:20 +0000

Exactly. Plus Baylor is in Texas, but very few Texans are Baylor fan.

By: MacMo

MacMo — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 15:32:09 +0000

SO if Missouri joins the SEC, they'd be the 5th largest state with the 7th most households within 200 miles. Columbia is right in the middle of Missouri, so I'd expect they'd have a following across the entire state. Plus, there isn't another division 1 football school in the state.

By: Scott

Scott — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 14:20:24 +0000

This comparison should be run against the size of the actual school. The larger schools would have a much greater alumni reach into the state than the smaller schools.