SEC Game Projections For 11/12/11

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Here’s our weekly round of SEC picks and predictions.  From the Vegas line to the TV start times, here’s a one-line at a time look at all the SEC’s weekend action:


Florida at South Carolina
12:00pm on CBS

Why It Matters:  If Carolina wins (and Georgia loses to Auburn), the Gamecocks can clinch the SEC East.

What Vegas Says:  South Carolina by 3 (opened at -3.5)

What We Say:  Carolina’s offense — as we predicted — has gone belly-up without Marcus Lattimore and we see no reason to expect that to change.  Even Arkansas’ defense held the Cocks to 207 yards last week.

Prediction:  Florida 23, South Carolina 20


Kentucky at Vanderbilt
12:21pm on SEC Network

Why It Matters:  The loser will likely be home for the holidays.

What Vegas Says:  Vanderbilt by 13.5 (opened at -11.5)

What We Say:  It looks like both teams have found quarterbacks, but the guys surrounding Vandy’s starter are playing better.

Prediction:  Vanderbilt 28, Kentucky 21


Auburn at Georgia
3:30pm on CBS

Why It Matters:  If Georgia wins and South Carolina loses tomorrow, the Bulldogs will have gone from 0-2 to East Division champs.

What Vegas Says:  Georgia by 12 (opened at -12.5)

What We Say:  Auburn’s offense is warming up, but it’s run defense is still ice cold.

Prediction:  Georgia 31, Auburn 24


Tennessee at Arkansas
6:00pm on ESPN2

Why It Matters:  Arkansas is trying to keep its slim SEC title hopes alive.

What Vegas Says:  Arkansas by 14.5 (opened at -14)

What We Say:  Tennessee’s defense hasn’t shown that it can shut down a solid offense for 60 minutes.

Prediction:  Arkansas 38, Tennessee 14


Western Kentucky at LSU
7:00pm on ESPNU

Why It Matters:  LSU wants to avoid injuries.

What Vegas Says:  LSU by 42 (opened at -42)

What We Say:  Even if the Tigers have a post-Bama letdown, they’ll still suffocate the Hilltoppers easily.

Prediction:  LSU 41, Western Kentucky 6


Louisiana Tech at Ole Miss
7:30pm on CSS

Why It Matters:  Ole Miss will try to win one for its lame duck coaching staff.

What Vegas Says:  Louisiana Tech by 2 (opened at Ole Miss -1)

What We Say:  When Tennessee fired Phillip Fulmer midseason in 2008, the Vols fell 13-7 to Wyoming in their next game.  Sonny Dykes has Louisiana Tech playing a lot better than Wyoming.

Prediction:  Louisiana Tech 28, Ole Miss 27


Alabama at Mississippi State
7:45pm on ESPN

Why It Matters:  The Crimson Tide needs to put last week’s loss in the rearview mirror, while the Bulldogs are still angling for a bowl bid.

What Vegas Says:  Alabama by 18 (opened at -17)

What We Say:  Bama usually starts slow, so if the Tide’s still struggling with MSU into the second half, you’ll know it’s still got a hangover. 

Prediction:  Alabama 34, Mississippi State 9