With SEC schools expected to finally release their 2012 football schedules today, there have been plenty of leaks, rumors and reports across the internet speculating on which teams will face one another next season.
Who are we not to get involved?
Before we start tossing out guesses willy-nilly, let’s look at a few facts:
1. Several schools have leaked information regarding which of the new teams — Missouri and Texas A&M — they’ll be facing in 2012.
2. While the SEC has said 2012′s schedule will be a stand-alone set-up and won’t necessarily reflect a new rotation of cross-division foes, it’s likely that the league will try to keep the home-road rotation within divisions intact. In other words, LSU shouldn’t have to travel to Alabama in two straight regular seasons.
3. It is believed that the SEC will try to preserve all of the current permanent cross-divisional rivalries for 2012. But we were told by one SEC employee last week that “it may be necessary to break up one pair of rivals for 2012 only.”
4. Moving forward, it’s likely the SEC will attempt to keep the schedule format for each team as follows: 3 home games inside the division, 3 road games inside the division, 1 home game outside the division, and 1 road game outside the division. (We expect that format to be used as long as the SEC sticks with an eight-game schedule. We’ve stated — and we still believe — that eventually the league will go to a nine-game schedule.)
Using the information above, we’ve put together a breakdown that we believe will be close to the official schedule.
This list is done in alphabetical order and does not reflect when teams will meet. We list the six divisional foes for each squad first, followed by the permanent cross-divisional opponent and then the 2012 rotating cross-divisional foe:
SEC EAST
Florida
|
Georgia
|
Kentucky
|
Missouri
|
S. Carolina
|
Tennessee
|
Vanderbilt
|
@Georgia (Jax)
|
Florida (Jax)
|
@Florida
|
@Florida
|
@Florida
|
Florida
|
Florida
|
Kentucky
|
@Kentucky
|
Georgia
|
Georgia
|
Georgia
|
@Georgia
|
@Georgia
|
Missouri
|
@Missouri
|
@Missouri
|
Kentucky
|
@Kentucky
|
Kentucky
|
@Kentucky
|
S. Carolina
|
@S. Carolina
|
S. Carolina
|
@S. Carolina
|
Missouri
|
Missouri
|
@Missouri
|
@Tennessee
|
Tennessee
|
@Tennessee
|
@Tennessee
|
Tennessee
|
@S. Carolina
|
S. Carolina
|
@Vanderbilt
|
Vanderbilt
|
Vanderbilt
|
Vanderbilt
|
@Vanderbilt
|
@Vanderbilt
|
Tennessee
|
LSU
|
@Auburn
|
Miss. St.
|
Texas A&M
|
Arkansas
|
Alabama
|
@Ole Miss
|
@Texas A&M
|
Ole Miss
|
@Arkansas
|
@Alabama
|
@LSU
|
@Miss. St.
|
Auburn
|
SEC WEST
Alabama
|
Arkansas
|
Auburn
|
LSU
|
Miss. St.
|
Ole Miss
|
Texas A&M
|
@Arkansas
|
Alabama
|
@Alabama
|
Alabama
|
Alabama
|
@Alabama
|
@Alabama
|
Auburn
|
@Auburn
|
Arkansas
|
@Arkansas
|
Arkansas
|
@Arkansas
|
Arkansas**
|
@LSU
|
LSU
|
LSU
|
@Auburn
|
Auburn
|
Auburn
|
@Auburn
|
@Miss. St.
|
@Miss. St.
|
@Miss. St.
|
Miss. St.
|
@LSU
|
@LSU
|
LSU
|
Ole Miss
|
Ole Miss
|
@Ole Miss
|
Ole Miss
|
@Ole Miss
|
Miss. St.
|
Miss. St.
|
Texas A&M
|
@Texas A&M**
|
Texas A&M
|
@Texas A&M
|
@Texas A&M
|
Texas A&M
|
@Ole miss
|
@Tennessee
|
@S. Carolina
|
Georgia
|
@Florida
|
@Kentucky
|
Vanderbilt
|
@Missouri
|
Missouri
|
Kentucky
|
@Vanderbilt
|
S. Carolina
|
Tennessee
|
@Georgia
|
Florida
|
** Arkansas and Texas A&M are currently scheduled to play in Arlington, Texas with A&M being designated as the home team in 2012. However, the payout for the game has dropped over the last two seasons and might not be the draw it once was. For that reason, there are rumors floating around today that next year’s game will move to College Station from Cowboys Stadium.
The schedule above truly is a set of dominoes. Knock this one over and dozens of others topple after it. For that reason, it looks as though Mississippi State will have to travel to Kentucky in back-to-back seasons. The permanent cross-divisional rivals played in Lexington last season and, for simplicity’s sake, many believe State will be sent back to the Bluegrass State in 2012. That’s easier than shifting several other games.
But there are a couple of caveats to keep in mind.
First, there are rumors circulating today that suggest the league has switched the venue of this year’s Alabama-Texas A&M game. Moving the Tide-Aggie game from College Station to Tuscaloosa would probably receive thumbs-up from both schools. If not for that switch, Bama would be set to face Arkansas, LSU and Texas A&M all on the road in every even year. And A&M would face Alabama, Arkansas and LSU on the road every odd year. Here’s guessing Mal Moore and Bill Byrne aren’t thrilled with those prospects.
So, if the A&M-Bama game shifts to Tuscaloosa in 2012, each school will also have to make another switch to maintain a 3-home, 3-road schedule inside its own division. Both schools’ games with Mississippi State make the most sense. MSU would travel to A&M — rather than host the Aggies — and they would host Alabama. The Tide traveled to nearby Starkville last year as well, but such a move would offset the Dogs’ back-to-back visits to Lexington. Getting Alabama at home in back-to-back years would help at MSU’s turnstiles. And Bama — as mentioned above — would likely be willing to agree to such a move if it meant breaking up the Arkansas/LSU/A&M trifecta.
One other possible fix would be to break up cross-divisional rivals Kentucky and MSU for 2012. For the sake of keeping the 3-3-1-1 format, UK could drop its home game with MSU and pick up Auburn instead. MSU could then replace Auburn on Vanderbilt’s schedule. (Instead of MSU at UK and AU at VU, we would have AU at UK and MSU at VU.)
As we noted earlier, an SEC official told us that at least one pair of permanent cross-divisional foes might need to be split up for the upcoming season. (The fact that the comment was tossed into our text message conversation at all stood out to us.) Kentucky and MSU would certainly make sense as the pair to split for a year, because the two schools have less history together than most other permanent rivals.
Overall, we believe the above lay-out will be close — very close — to the league’s official schedule when it’s released. And here’s hoping that official release comes sometime later today.
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