Comments on: Big Bang Theories: The Countdown To Super-Conferences (Part 1)

By: Your Sunday Chryco Auto News UPDATE: | Chryco Auto News Digest

Your Sunday Chryco Auto News UPDATE: | Chryco Auto News Digest — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 23:41:56 +0000

[...] will mean more cash. Gee’s “16 to 20″ comment didn’t catch us off guard (and if you read this, this, this, and this it didn’t catch you off guard either). So what’s all this hubbub mean for [...]

By: Your Saturday Chryco Auto News UPDATE | Chryco Auto News Digest

Your Saturday Chryco Auto News UPDATE | Chryco Auto News Digest — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 05:52:05 +0000

[...] is almost here. Last month, we began a series of breakdowns on realignment and expansion. In Part One we looked at which schools might be looking to switch conferences in order to bolster their bank [...]

By: Clemmer

Clemmer — Tue, 01 Jan 2013 03:26:02 +0000

Great article. One note: though you have probaby published the revenue numbers available – remember that some of these may be apples to oranges.

By: Big Bang Theories: The Countdown To Super-Conferences (Part 3)

Big Bang Theories: The Countdown To Super-Conferences (Part 3) — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 15:54:33 +0000

[...] In Part 1 of our Big Bang series, we looked at which schools we believe would be willing to move if a better offer came along from a new conference (based on athletic revenue and current conference stability). In our view, there are only about 25 schools that would have any hope of drawing the interest of one of the power leagues. [...]

By: DanielLaFrankie

DanielLaFrankie — Fri, 21 Dec 2012 15:36:55 +0000

@John at MrSEC @DanielLaFrankie Thanks for your answer, and everyone elses answers. I believe my main thought of this, is if everyone goes to the 16, I still believe the Texas, TT, Ok, Ok. St. to the PAC 12 could come around again. Maybe the Big 12 steals from the ACC to get to 16. If not, then those 4 to the PAC 12 could start up again. Thats what I was wondering about the “GOR”, in regards to that situation. Thanks for all the answers.

By: John Bragg

John Bragg — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 18:23:50 +0000

@John at MrSEC That’s true when schools leave the Big XII, whose bylaws were apparently written in crayon while drunk, and had contradictory clauses. Everyone leaving the Big East has paid list price(TCU) or a premium to leave early.

On the other hand, the Big East would have had a very easy time showing damages–look around.

The only school that a Grant of Rights wouldn’t bind is one of the only two schools it’s supposed to bind–Texas. Texas in the Big Ten would probably pay its way even without TV rights to home games. Texas @ Michigan adds to the Tier 1 package, Texas @ Minnesota is a valuable BTN game, etc. And 2-3 Longhorn football road games, together with UT basketball road games and the rest of the BTN content could be enough to get the BTN on basic cable in Texas.

I don’t see a consolidation of the top tier–that makes the four surviving superconferences equals. I see the Big Ten and SEC increasing the gap at the expense of the Big XII and ACC.

By: LifeLongGarnetGold

LifeLongGarnetGold — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 16:27:48 +0000

@John at MrSEC @LifeLongGarnetGold Roger that. Bring on the wave!

By: AGator

AGator — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 16:07:13 +0000

@John at MrSEC @DanielLaFrankie
Couldn’t a school still challenge the $200 million exit fee in court without the risk of paying a huge fee? If they were successful and got the fee reduced to the going rate of about $10 million they’d leave the conference. If they could only get it down to $100 million they’d stay in the Big 12 and not have to pay the exit fee.

Would a major conference actually take a school to court that didn’t want to be in their conference? It would be horrible publicity for the conference.

By: Quidam65

Quidam65 — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 15:59:47 +0000

@torris187 @Quidam65 The original argument was that someone should grab USF simply because it was in a major market, notwithstanding that its program is weak.

My argument was that if simply having a school in a large market is the only goal, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale market is much bigger (top 10 I believe) so on that basis FIU and FAU are just as credible (and just as weak).

By: John at MrSEC

John at MrSEC — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 15:27:27 +0000

@DanielLaFrankie

Typically, schools leaving leagues face a buyout clause or exit fee. In every case that we’re aware of — and we might have missed one — those fees have been negotiated down. Schools expected to pay $25-30 million typically pay between $10-20 million instead, for example.

A grant of rights agreement binds teams together in terms of most of their media rights. Just for the sake of looking at ballpark numbers, let’s say a school brings in $20 million per year in media value. Now let’s multiply that by an imaginary 10-year grant-of-rights agreement — again just to get a round number. (And we’re actually lowballing here.)

Even if the other schools in the league negotiated down a penalty for a school and did not attempt to hold that school’s media rights moving forward — as the agreement states it could — the starter’s point for negotiations would be $200 million rather than $25-30 million. Big difference. And that’s IF the schools agreed to let the other school go. If they didn’t, the exiting school could take it to court in hopes of the deal being struck down. But it’s one thing for a school to bluff a court battle over $25-30 million… it’s another to roll the dice over a $200 million (again, just a ballpark figure) deal. How many schools would be willing to risk wasting years in court only to possibly lose most of their media rights for a decade in the end?

That’s why grant-of-rights agreements are considered to be more effective than simple exit fees.

Thanks for reading the site,
John

By: John at MrSEC

John at MrSEC — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 15:14:33 +0000

@Mr_Travis_McGee

Agreed, but location helps the Bearcats in another way. Cincinnati is really all alone in Ohio — aside from Ohio State which is already in the Big Ten, of course — in terms of landing a power conference bid at some point. USF will be competing against Florida State, Miami and UCF. At best their the third option from Florida. Cincinnati is really the only option left in Ohio. Just depends on a conference’s geographic goals at that point.

Many thanks for reading the site,
John

By: John at MrSEC

John at MrSEC — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 15:03:09 +0000

@LifeLongGarnetGold

No. I’ve heard no talk of timelines. Could be tomorrow, could be next month, but everyone I’ve spoken to now seems to think the next big wave is coming. Everything was silent and I think most folks had their fingers crossed that things would slow… but then the Big Ten made its moves for Maryland and Rutgers and the mood around the SEC has changed.

Many thanks for reading,
John

By: Big Bang Theories: The Countdown To Super-Conferences (Part 2) – Vanderbilt – Commodores

Thu, 20 Dec 2012 14:56:29 +0000

[...] in the air once more, we’re taking a numbers-based look at how things might shake out. Yesterday, we showed you the total revenue numbers — gross not net — for each school currently scheduled to be playing FBS football by 2015. [...]

By: Big Bang Theories: The Countdown To Super-Conferences (Part 2) – Florida – Gators News

Thu, 20 Dec 2012 14:56:13 +0000

By: torris187

torris187 — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 21:35:18 +0000

@Quidam65 FIU & FAU have about half the athletic budget USF Does. Also, USF has upgraded athletic facilities and it plays in Raymond James Stadium. You can’t compare USF to FIU and FAU with any type of seriousness. You could however compare USF to UCF… USF has a slighter advantage.

I think there are only 2 ways USF/UCF gets into a bigger conference.
1. If FSU leaves for the Big 12, the ACC replaces FSU with USF.
2. If the Big 12 decides to expand its footprint to Florida but is unable to grab FSU.

By: LifeLongGarnetGold

LifeLongGarnetGold — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 21:29:16 +0000

Perfect — crack indeed!

By: LifeLongGarnetGold

LifeLongGarnetGold — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 21:26:43 +0000

John, As one who’s been following realignment since the summer (Mr SEC, Dude of WV, Frank the Tank, etc), I find myself placing a little extra faith in what you state and the articles you’ve posted (i.e., Big Bang, etc). Dude has mentioned some things are expected to break mid-Jan after the Natty. Are you hearing anything that would indicate movement in Jan?

By: LifeLongGarnetGold

LifeLongGarnetGold — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 21:20:18 +0000

Ditto (it’s rare that I ever ditto a gator). Same things I’ve heard.

By: AGator

AGator — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 21:00:50 +0000

@Sooner_Stampede
I’ve also read that 50 million will not hold up in court for the reasons you describe. The courts will say that schools must have the ability to change conferences if they desire and the exit fee can’t be prohibitively expensive.

Wouldn’t the Big 12 GOR have the same problem in court? It’s so expensive that schools can’t afford to leave the conference. Wouldn’t the courts give the GOR a dollar value and then say that dollar value is excessive?

By: Sooner_Stampede

Sooner_Stampede — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 20:24:00 +0000

The B1G and PAC have had GOR’s for a whole lot longer than the Big 12 has had one. The big reason why the 50 mill exit fee cannot be upheld is because it is punitive and therefore not legal. An exit fee is not supposed to be a punishment that the conference inflicts upon a school for leaving it is supposed to be a payment in damages and for the exit fee to be set at 50 million, 3 times the annual conference revenue, then that goes far beyond just damages. The GOR is seen as an equitable unanimous agreement between all schools and the conference that in exchange for membership in the conference and all its benefits, money, they will sign over their media rights to the conference.

By: Theory Nine | News, rumors, theories and thoughts about sports, technology and more

Wed, 19 Dec 2012 19:55:57 +0000

[...] BIG BANG THEORIES: THE COUNTDOWN TO SUPER-CONFERENCES (PART 1) (12.18.12) – Brilliant article by MrSEC — in this part each conference is broken down from a financial perspective and you can start to see where the disparity is from school to school and conference to conference. Want to know why Maryland is moving to the Big Ten? Just look at the numbers. Ultimately, this is setting up for part 2 of the series which will be looking at how certain schools meet the specific needs of each conference as we move toward super conferences. [...]

By: Quidam65

Quidam65 — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 19:30:55 +0000

But USF is a weak football program in a weak conference and it’s other sports don’t do much either. On that basis Florida Atlantic or Florida International would be better pickups.

Cincinnati has been competitive in that same weak conference and it’s b-ball program brings additional value too.

By: Quidam65

Quidam65 — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 19:27:20 +0000

Probably the same as in 2010 when all this started–if someone is interested we’ll take a look to see if they can provide value to the SEC, then go from there. If not, we’ll stand pat and rake in the dough from providing the best product out there.

The Big Ten and (then) PAC-10 wanted to expand in 2010 so each could get to the 12 teams needed to host a conference championship game. The SEC didn’t need to expand as it already had 12 teams (none of which were looking to leave except in the deluded fantasies of fan site message boards) and the most profitable CCG.

Of course, it was a no-brainer when Texas A&M–a flagship university in the country’s second most populous state, with alumni concentrated in two major media markets not already covered significantly by existing teams (DFW and Houston), and an AAU member to boot–expressed interest in joining; short of collective insanity by the SEC leadership there was no way they would not be accepted.

By: USCTraveler

USCTraveler — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 19:25:26 +0000

Great stuff John. Well done.

This will open a lot of people’s eyes who still think the ACC is solid.

By: Mr_Travis_McGee

Mr_Travis_McGee — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 18:00:50 +0000

In terms of South Florida, Memphis and Cincinnati, you mentioned the hot bed of Ohio recruiting and the 30th largest television market.

FYI – USF is in a far superior state for recruiting and is in the nation’s 14th largest market.

Food for thought.

By: joeymitchell01

joeymitchell01 — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 16:40:37 +0000

@Bdgooch pretty low even compared to other conf. but I think this is changing in a hurry thanks to new AD @RossBjorkAD

By: Aaron Morrow

Aaron Morrow — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 15:09:20 +0000

@HoustonVol Maryland athletics was in dire straits financially, and practically had no choice. As lonfg

By: Aub62

Aub62 — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 13:09:09 +0000

@DanielLaFrankie it’s the money that the grant of rights is worth. Certainly $ can be negotiated to get out, but you have to pay (and in future worth, too). Some people call this a golden shackle. The ACC has a $50M buyout, the Big12 a grant of rights for a long time. The Big10 has a grant of rights, but it rolls every year. Not sure about Pac12, but you see that as you get to the top of the $, the schools need less to keep them together.

By: Aub62

Aub62 — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 13:03:31 +0000

@DanielLaFrankie

By: Aub62

Aub62 — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 13:02:12 +0000

@DanielLaFrankie

By: Dnayew

Dnayew — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 03:59:10 +0000

Dangit, John – it is darn near IMPOSSIBLE to prep for the Bar Exam when you keep writing these incredibly interesting, brain-busting novels on Conference Expansion. This kind of stuff is like crack to college football fans. Keep up the good work

By: I4Bama

I4Bama — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 03:30:53 +0000

I would never have believed that Louisville’s athletic revenues were higher than Florida State’s. Does basketball inflate this number significantly?

By: HoustonVol

HoustonVol — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 23:52:56 +0000

There are still a lot of moving parts to consider. First – ESPN is in talks with the ACC on their TV contracts, including ND, and starting a ACC cable channel. If you look at the TV markets that are in the ACC footprint, that could be huge. To keep the ACC together, would ESPN be willing to pony up more money to prevent to losing inventory to the BTN, Fox, NBC, and or CBS? If ESPN can put the ACC in the money range for the B12, it could cool people’s heels. If the ACC could launch a cable channel, even for a fraction of the money that the BTN and SEC network gets, it would still be huge money. The average TV ratings for ACC football are better than B12 football. The ACC TV package is the most undervalued in the nation – which is one reason why it has caused so much stress in the conference.

The B12 grant of rights has a loop hole – 3rd tier rights. The conference does not own access to 3rd tier rights. In Texas’ case, through the longhorn network – ESPN owns the first tier and technically the 3rd tier rights. Fox owns the 2nd tier. If it was for a season or two – Would ESPN be willing to try and push everything down onto the TLN that is not picked up by Fox? This also goes for every other B12 school. They are all starting some form of school network, even if it is just online. It would be messy, and anger a lot of fans, but doable if it means a school having an invite to a bigger payday long term.

Seeing these numbers, further supports one of my theories – Why Maryland and Why now? There has been rumors of the B10 and Maryland for years, that has been no secrete. If there was an ACC school willing to jump to the B10 with Maryland, I think it would have happened back when this move was announced. Instead the B10 picked up Rutgers. Saying that Rutgers brings the NYC market is like saying that ECU brings the NC market. If Rutgers had been that valuable of a product, the ACC would have picked them up over the past decade, instead of leaving it behind in each raid. The same reason ECU keeps getting left behind. Maryland is/was not one of the big fish in the ACC, as the numbers above showed. If the ACC fell apart, there would be a good chance that Maryland would have been left behind. The same reason Colorado jumped first before politics and back door deals would have blocked it out of the PAC, Maryland had to be aggressive. Either move first or risk being left behind.

As for mid-majors, the Big East is in the driver’s seat for one reason and one reason only. They are the ones with the new TV contract. Expect to see the Big East systematically add TV markets and programs. ODU, UTSA, UNLV, GaSt, etc. If you are a member of the MWC, CUSA, Sun Belt and the Big East calls, you jump and don’t look back. Anything the Big East gets with their new TV deal will be more than what those other conferences will be able to offer. Once this wheel stops spinning, the only question is will the Sun Belt survive? You have to feel for Benson, he seems to be cursed.

By: Holtbru

Holtbru — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 22:50:06 +0000

I sure would like to know what Mr. Slive is thinking !!!

By: DanielLaFrankie

DanielLaFrankie — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 22:37:04 +0000

I will look to MR. SEC for an answer, that no one else can give. “Grant of rights”. Why is this concrete?? Can’t people sue to get out of this, like they do to get out of exit penalties and fees?? People sue to get out of 10, 20, now even 50 million dollars. Gets lawyered down. Why can’t they sue to get out of “Grant of rights”?? Thank you.

By: TruancyBot

TruancyBot — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 22:09:00 +0000

Wow, what an article! Well done!

By: LifeLongGarnetGold

LifeLongGarnetGold — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 21:57:47 +0000

Excellent read! Appreciate the info. Looking forward to part 2.

By: ChaseTheTrainWarren

ChaseTheTrainWarren — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 21:35:46 +0000

great work by the way

By: ChaseTheTrainWarren

ChaseTheTrainWarren — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 21:35:11 +0000

any word on when the ACC lawsuit will go to court? lot of information about there being a lawsuit but i haven’t been able to find information on when the court date is. I know that it can always get settled before that date but i would really like to know when i should start cooking the popcorn and tune in to ESPN to watch all of the teams scatter.