Comments on: Vegas And The SEC: More Proof That The Line Isn’t A Prediction

By: John at MrSEC

John at MrSEC — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 16:24:47 +0000

@compliceancien

What an ugly post.

I would nuke it, but I like for people to see the kind of trash we get for providing free information. Information, in this case, that can be gathered from books, one-on-one interviews with Las Vegas casino bookmakers (which we’ve done for three different summer pieces on Vegas and the SEC), intelligent gamblers, various gambling sites, or even a major sports news service like Yahoo! Sports.com: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds.

I will say this regarding our “laughable” breakdown of the spreads — we weren’t comparing the results to anyone. We were trying to show people who routinely say, “The guys in Vegas are always dead-on” that, in fact, they’re not. Unless you consider being off by an average of two touchdowns per SEC game “dead-on.” Are they better than most? Maybe. But that doesn’t change the fact that the myth of Vegas’ accuracy with regards to point differentials is just that… a myth.

Enjoy your day,John

By: compliceancien

compliceancien — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 15:37:22 +0000

And pennington shows why non-math people should not attempt to write about mathematical topics…

A vegas line absolutely, 100% IS a prediction, and is the best one known to mankind (particularly the money line, spread is a little more indirect). Yes, he is correct that it moves to balance the wagers so that losers balance winners and the house gets the vig. But in doing so, it induces the number that best reflects all available information (see Efficient Markets Theory from economics).

He can be forgiven for saying that ‘vegas’ is not making the prediction, because that’s true. The opening line is a prediction of what the line will ultimately be, but if you use the term ‘vegas’ to mean ‘all the money folks are wagering worldwide’ and where the line ends up then yes, ‘vegas’ is making a prediction.

His breakdown of how results differed from spreads is laughable. What is he comparing those results to? F*** all! So if it’s not a predicition, what is the more accurate predictor? Sagarin? ELO Chess? W-L? Any statistical measure under the sun? NO, the answer is NOTHING is a better predictor. If there is a better one that actually beats vegas over a long period of time, please show it to me. But please don’t show it to anyone else, because you and I have some money to make.

By: Thursday morning buffet | Get The Picture

Thursday morning buffet | Get The Picture — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 12:17:50 +0000

[...] John Pennington reminds us what a Vegas line really is. [...]

By: BonzaiB

BonzaiB — Wed, 16 Jan 2013 03:12:14 +0000

The entire time I was reading this, I was wondering what Mr Pennington does with his spare time, cause it would have taken me a week to write this.

It will take me another week to understand it. Pretty sure I will have the first paragraph nailed by bedtime…..