Comments on: Tourney Hopes: A Deep Dive Into The SEC’s Current Resumes – 3/1/13

By: allVOLyall

allVOLyall — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 01:10:31 +0000

@MrSEC I thought this was a cool comparative. Linked to it earlier today.

By: MoKelly1

MoKelly1 — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 21:39:26 +0000

Nice article. Not that it changes any analysis, but I believe Mizzou is 37 in the RPI (not 36).

By: DaveinExile

DaveinExile — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 21:20:48 +0000

Can’t wait for the football conferences to break away and take basketball with them. I am so sick of CBB turning into an argument over the relative merits of Creighton, St. Mary’s and the 5th place team from the SEC, all for the right to see which one can best injure a key player on a team with an actual shot to win the tournament.

I appreciate what you’re doing here. That frustration is entirely directed at the NCAA.

By: John at MrSEC

John at MrSEC — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 16:51:41 +0000

@sec_fan @jones75

We’ve pointed out this year that teams like UCLA, Indiana, North Carolina and Kentucky have all been snubbed from right off the bubble in recent years. The name on the jersey really hasn’t been much of a guarantee lately. And the committee seems to go from rewarding big conference to rewarding mid-majors on a year-to-year basis.

You’re correct that we’re all guessing. But when those guesses are based on math and past history, they tend to be pretty accurate.

Thanks for reading the site,
John

By: John at MrSEC

John at MrSEC — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 16:48:50 +0000

@jones75

When it comes to the SEC’s bids, I am as confident as anyone making a “here’s how it stands right now” statement can be. Last year, as an example, Lunardi had five SEC teams getting into the NCAA Tournament right up until Selection Sunday when he dropped it to the correct four. This site had said four bids for two weeks before that (and we had the correct four teams the whole time). http://www.mrsec.com/2012/03/sec-tourney-files-and-bubble-talk-heading-to-new-orleans/

In four years of projections, this site has always nailed down the number of bids before of the SEC Tournament. That’s not so special since — as we said — it’s all about math. Still our SEC picks tend to lock in sooner than others. The only time we got a team wrong was when the SEC indeed got three bids in 2009, but Mississippi State swiped the third by winning the SEC tourney.

This season is much more challenging from an SEC perspective because the league really isn’t very good. Teams are rising and falling and we’ve flipped from two sure bids to four sure bids throughout the process. Our picks have looked more like Lunardi’s “you’re in, you’re out, you’re in again” this season.

Looking at the current resumes, we believe the SEC will eek out a third bid based on a soft bubble overall and that Tennessee would grab it over Kentucky right now. That could change over the next three weeks. By the start of the SEC tourney, we’ll have a better idea. (Again, that’s today. Kentucky has a better end to its regular-season schedule and therefore. If they finish 3-0 and Tennessee finishes 3-0, we might flip-flop their spots based on their RPI, SOS, and other factors. Or we might say the SEC will get four bids.)

All that said, if our site’s picks are ever going to be off… it’ll be this year. The SEC is just too darn soft beyond Florida and Missouri.

None of that is a knock on Lunardi who began the idea of “bracketology” years ago. The guy’s a master who looks at the entire board. We look only at the SEC. And the selection committee’s tendencies are so clear, we’ve been lucky enough to get it right time and again.

Thanks for reading the site,John

(And if you watch The Sports Source, you know that in 2010 most were saying Tennessee would land a #4 seed and possibly a #3. Looking at the numbers, I predicted a #5 for the Vols but warned of a #6… which not another soul was predicting. Several dozen angry, ugly emails from Vol fans later, Tennessee indeed was handed a #6 seed.)

By: sec_fan

sec_fan — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 16:36:39 +0000

@jones75 t’s all a guessing game on both parts. Lunardi could change by Monday, of course so could MR SEC. One factor could be what I call the Notre Dame effect (popular teams getting the benefit of the doubt ). That would give Kentucky the nod. They love having them there for the fan support even with a less than stellar season. Of course a hot Vanderbilt team (for Instance) could pull a Georgia and win the whole thing taking one of these precious bids.

By: sec_fan

sec_fan — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 16:33:07 +0000

@jones75 It’s all a guessing game on both parts. Lunardi could change by Monday, of course so could MR SEC. One factor could be what I call the Notre Dame effect (popular teams getting the benefit of the doubt ). That would give Kentucky the nod. They love having them there for the fan support even with a less than stellar season.

By: aubieman2002

aubieman2002 — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 16:20:27 +0000

how sad is basketball in the sec? With the resources available to sec schools to not have at least 5-6 teams every year in the big dance is just shameful. Perhaps with the new tv deal schools can reinvest into their basketball programs.

By: jones75

jones75 — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 16:06:29 +0000

How confident are you? i noticed that Lunardi has Ole Miss as the last team in and he also has Kentucky in. Do you think your more likely to get the bracket right than him? Love the Sports Source keep up the good work.

By: jbaz65

jbaz65 — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 15:51:02 +0000

You just made the “single-tooth” KY fans very upset. RT @MrSEC: IF season ended today — Tenn. would get nod over UK for SEC’s 3rd bid.