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Since it’s basically a mortal lock that everyone who reads the site will pick Vanderbilt, regardless of the spread, we thought it might be more effective to have a “Predictions” thread where you prognosticate on what the final score will be.
I’ve got Vanderbilt 78 – Murray State 63. What do you think the final will be?
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Join by clicking the VSL Tournament Challenge (Group Name: VSL Challenge, Group Password).
One’s ability to join the group closes when the first games begin tomorrow.
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Uncle O’Shea is the Voice of the Jacksonville University Dolphins. Last night, JU won their opening round NIT game over Arizona State, a #1 seed in the NIT, 67-66, on a last-second three bank shot for the win. This play was #4 on Sportscenter, and the call might rival that of any of Joe Fisher’s.
Let the madness begin
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I will be watching the afternoon games at Sam’s in Hillsboro Village starting around 11 am on Thursday and would encourage anyone who can to join me. Better still, I’ll be live-blogging the games for those who can’t a) get out of work or b) make it to Nashville. So it’s the best of all worlds. Hope to see some of you Thursday.
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The Vanderbilt Commodores march to the Final Four begins Thursday at 1:30 central against the OVC Champion Murray State Racers in San Jose. Schools separated by a 110 miles will travel over 2,000 miles and two time zones to meet in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Racers are a sexy upset pick. For example, the line has moved from Vanderbilt as a 4.5 favorite, to now being a just a 3 point favorite as far as Vegas is concerned. This was the largest amount of movement on Vegas’ board (although a handful of other games also had lines that moved 1.5 points).
While there are certainly reasons why, don’t let Murray’s gawdy stats scare you. First to why the Racers are getting some love: 1) they were the first team in America to reach 30 wins this season; 2) they basically steamrolled their conference, winning 17 of 18 games; 3)they have a balanced, deep, and experienced team. With that said, those championing the Racers are ignoring the fact that their strength of schedule is 289th out of 347 Division I schools according to KenPom.com with a record of just 1-2 among the RPI Top 100. They truly haven’t played anyone all season long (and no, Cal does not count as “someone” this season). Oh, did I mention they are a career 1-13 in the NCAA tournament? Still, given Vanderbilt’s somewhat erratic play heading into the Tournament, combined with the Siena sting that still haunts Commodore fans, this is not a game or a team that can be taken lightly.
Murray State: By the Numbers
As discussed above, their strength of schedule is terrible. As such, I think one has to take their apparent statistical dominance with a grain (or two) of salt.
The Racers did have winning streaks of 8 and 17 over the course of the year. Currently, Murray has a 4 game winning streak on their way to winning the OVC crown. Murray has outscored opponents by an average of 17 points, outrebounded them by an average of 6 boards a game, and out-shot them by 12 percentage points (50% to 38%). While Murrary owns a season +2.6 turnover margin over opponents, they do average 14.6 turnovers a game, a number that seems high given their experience and competition. If it’s not abundantly clear from my tone thus far, I don’t put a lot of stock in these comparision stats because of the dearth of quality opposition. Yes, they beat Western Kentucky and we didn’t. Still, you are never going to convince me these stats are “meaningful” (which, of course, begs the question, why did I include this last paragraph at all?)
Murray State: The Players
The Racers entire starting 5, save 1, average scoring in double figuers. The player who doesn’t, Junior Guard Issac Miles adds 9.5 points a contest. Clearly, this is a balanced team on the offensive end. They also have experience. 2 seniors, 2 juniors, and a sophomore start for Murrary State’s coach Billy Kennedy. But, what they have in experience, balance, and je ne sais quoi, they certainly make up for with a lack of size. (Mike Organ has a piece in today’s Tennessean about the match-ups that’s worth a read. I did not see nor read Organ’s piece while writing this post, but he certainly makes the same point I do).
Of Murray’s 5 starters, only 2 are over 6′7. Sophomore forward Ivan Aska, the team’s leading scorer, is 6′7, averages 10.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 22.8 minutes a game. Coach Kennedy’s other “big guy” is 6′9 senior Tony Easley, who is averaging 10.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, while shooting 66.8% from the floor. The 6′9 Easley is certainly no joke inside, including blocking 93 shots. The number about him that impressed me most about this senior was that of his 206 rebounds, 87 were offensive. While A.J. enjoys a 50 pound and 2 inch height advantage over Easley, and has been very effective against smaller defenders, there is no doubt the Racer senior will make him earn his points.
Murray’s other forward is another senior, the 6′4 Danero Thomas. Thomas was the team leader in minutes, averaging 26.7 minutes a game, while scoring 10.4 points and grabbing 4.2 rebounds a contest. And this is where you really see Vanderblit’s height advantage coming through. Thomas will most likely be guarded by (and forced to guard) Jeffery Taylor, Vanderbilt’s 6′7 swingman.
Coach Kennedy’s back-court consists of a pair of juniors, 6′0 B.J. Jenkins and 6′2 Issac Miles. In looking at the stats, it’s not clear which one is the “true” point-guard. Jenkins plays 25.6 minutes, and is good for 10.5 points a game. He shoots an impressive 37% from downtown (the best percentage of the Racers’ starters), has 62 steals on the season, and has 108 assists compared to just 55 turnovers. The other guard, Miles, has a similar stat line. Averaging 9.8 points a game, Miles is 35.9% three point shooter, and has a 1.76:1 assist to turnover ratio. He is the team’s assist leader. Whichever one of these guards brings the ball up will be Dolla Beal’s responsibility, but John Jenkins will have to make a concerted effort to keep up with whomever he gets on the defensive end.
The Racers really go 8 deep. Coach Kennedy has a Jenkinseque player in freshman Isaiah Canann. The 6′0 freshman coming off the bench is playing just over 20 minutes a game. He is averaging 10.3 points a game and is truly a lethal shooter, connecting on 49.3% of his attempts, including 45.7% from downtown. Like the Racers will with The Stroke, all the Commodores will know (or pay the price) where Canaan is on the floor at all times. Rounding out the Racers contributors are sophomore guard Donte Poole and junior forward Jeffery McClain. These guys have played in all 34 games (averaging 14.2 and 16.6 minutes respectively), and contributed 8.9 points and 6.2 boards a contest.
The Match-Ups
As alluded to above, I really think the match-ups favor the Commodores, not only in terms of height, but also in terms of depth. Vanderbilt is, across the board, taller than Murray State. It seems unlikely that Vanderbilt players won’t always have a height advantage over the Racers. Additionally, Vanderbilt’s depth is significantly taller than Murray’s. At 6′3, Brad Tinsely is the smallest player coming off the Commodore bench, whereas 6′3 is actually the middle of the road for Murray’s depth. Depending on Jenkins’ defense, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a fair bit of Brad in this game, especially given his 3-4 shooting performance from downtown against Mississippi State in the SEC semis. This is not to say I don’t expect Jenkins to play…a lot, or to play a significant role in Vanderbilt’s offense. But I’m looking for Tinsely to give the Commodores quality minutes.
Given the emphasis on Vanderbilt height advantage, it will come as no shock that I see A.J. Ogilvy as a key to Vanderbilt’s success. The big Australian always seems to play well when he is the tallest player on the floor. In the 6 games this season where A.J. scored 19 points or more, he was the tallest player on the floor and was guarded by someone at least 2 inches taller than him in 5 of those games and averaged just under 22.6 points and shot an incredible 68%. Certainly there were games where A.J. was the biggest player on the floor and did not take advantage, but given his performance against Mississippi State, and his track-record of taking advantage when he’s the tallest player on the floor, I fully expect Ogilvy to have a big game.
Jeffery Taylor’s worst four-game stretch of the season have been his last 4. The 6′7 swingman averaged 13.4 points over the course of the season. In his last four games however, Jeffery has only reached double figures once (13 points against South Carolina), and is averaging just 7.5 points a game in this stretch. The question is why? First off, Taylor doesn’t appear to be attacking the basket as successfully as he was earlier in the season. Case in point, Taylor has attempted just 11 free throws in 4 games, 2 of which (@ Florida and vs. Georgia) where he didn’t attempt a single one. Prior to that stretch, Taylor had only failed to reach the line once (vs. Chaminade), and attempted 9 or more free throws 9 times. Taylor’s field-goal percentage also reflects his struggles at getting to the rim. During this 4 game stretch, Taylor is shooting just 31.3% from the field. For Vanderbilt’s offense to be connect. Coincidentally or not, Jeffery’s struggles began when The Stroke entered the starting line-up. For Vanderbilt to be playing at their best, these guys are going to have to figure out how to work together.
Jermaine Beal is the team’s lone playing senior and the backbone of this team. He will either be guarded by a Racer who is his size (creating a serious mismatch for The Stroke), or someone who is at least 3 inches shorter than him. This will certainly give Jermaine an opportunity to take advantage of his much vaunted transition pull-up jumper. Given that the end of his Commodore career is in sight, the key for Beal is playing within himself without trying to do too much.
Stevie Thunder and the glue, Andre Walker, also have the ability to contribute tomorrow. If Walker assumes a point-forward role (a distinct possibility if Jermaine is harassed) who directs traffic and gets into the heart of the defense, he will open up the middle for A.J. to post, and Taylor to penetrate. One might argue that, even if Beal isn’t harassed, Coach Stallings would be well advised to move Walker away from the basket. Again, given Murray’s lack of size, whomever is matched up with either 4 will be drawn away from the basket, rendering a relatively small team that much smaller. For many of the same reasons, I think Lance Goulbourne could also play a pivotal role.
Final Thoughts: The Keys
Field Goal Percentage: As our friends at Anchor of Gold pointed out in their great Worst Losses preview of tomorrow’s game point out, in Murray State’s 4 losses, their opponents are shooting 52.1% against them, compared to just 37% in their 30 wins. Here again is where A.J. and Jeffery will be key. When these guys are getting to the basket, they often shoot at a high percentage.
In all but 10 games, Vanderbilt has out-shot their opponents from the field. In the 10 games were that was not case, the Commodores lost 7. Finally, Vanderbilt is 23-4 this season when they shoot over 40%.
Dictate Pace: Vanderbilt is a team that can thrive both in an up-tempo game, as well in a half-court set. It doesn’t matter what style the Commodores play, but rather that they play how they want rather than how their opponents want. Vanderbilt’s last two losses to Mississippi State and South Carolina dictate how important this is. South Carolina came back because they played their style (i.e. give the ball to Downey and get out of the way). Mississippi State, on the other hand, played a slow-down game and established a 10 point lead into the second half. When Vanderbilt made their run, it was because they sped things up and got out in transition. That they weren’t able to get over the hump doesn’t diminish the point that dictating the pace of play is critical.
Getting to the Free Throw Line: One of Vanderbilt’s strengths all season has been getting to the free throw line, averaging 25.7 attempts a game. In their last 4 (since Jenkins entered the starting line up), that number has gone down to 17.8 a game, a number less than the average number of free throws the Commodores average connecting on this season. Again, the importance of A.J. and Jeffery rears its head again. If these guys can get to the basket, it should lead to more free throw opportunities, which typically leads to wins.
Starting Out the Right Way:How Vanderbilt comes out of the gate will be key. In Vanderbilt’s 2007 match-up with George Washington, the Commodores jumped out to an early lead, leading by 13 with 8 minutes to go in the first half. Compare that to their 2008 match-up with Siena, where the Commodores trailed by 16 around the 8 minute mark. Let’s hope playing out west is more important than playing in an even numbered year.
Prediction:
This game looks more like Vanderbilt’s match-up in 2007 with George Washington, than 2008 against Siena. Given Murray State’s lack of size and weak strength of schedule, I’m really not sure they have the guns to hang with Vanderbilt. With that said, the experts aren’t just picking the upset to bother Commodore fans (as hard as we might find this to believe). The Racers are a team good enough to go 17-1 in their conference, and thus good enough to beat us. Alas, I don’t think they will.
Vanderbilt 78 – Murrary State 63
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On VSLNation’s twitter feed last night, I saw the following tweet: “@hustlernews: No San Jose for the Hustler staffers, unfortunately. If Vandy advances to Salt Lake City, we are 98% a go, though.”
One of my biggest regrets in college was not writing for the Hustler (as clearly indicated by my attempts to be a sports reporter later in life). Being a writer for the school paper (particularly at a school without a journalism school) is a difficult, and often times thankless job. This game is an opportunity for the beat reporter to cover actual news that effects the school.
Talk about a microcosm for the decline of newspapers. There is news happening and budgetary constraints are preventing those who know the subject matter as well as anyone from actually covering it. I recognize that there are certain realities that exist, but I find it difficult to believe that there isn’t money in the budget to send a reporter (or two) to cover what is likely to be the biggest news story on campus this year.
This post was written last night, but I thought it fairness to the Hustler and Vanderbilt Student Communications, Inc., I would give them an opportunity to respond before there were called out in quite so public a fashion. Unfortunately, my email to the addresses that appear below, as well as the Hustler’s Editor-in-Cheif, was not responded to. Perhaps the readers of this site disagree with my outrage, but if not I would encourage the Vanderbilt Sports Line readership to email any of the following people and let them know you think the:
CHRIS CARROLL, Director of Student Media, Vanderbilt Student Communications, Inc.
JEFF A. BREAUX, Assistant Director of Student Media/Business, Vanderbilt Student Communications, Inc.
[Bobby climbs down from his soapbox - Exit, stage left]
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The following email appeared in my inbox from VUCommodores.com
Dear Commodores Fan,Send Off Rally for Men’s Basketball Team Tuesday Evening
Help see off the Commodores as they head for San Jose and the 1st Round of the NCAA TournamentCommodore fans are invited to help send off the men’s basketball team on Tuesday evening as they leave for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The team bus will be leaving from the Players Entrance of Memorial Gym at 5:40pm. Fans and students are encouraged to join the team at the Players Entrance (located at the north west corner of Memorial Gym by Parmer Fieldhouse) and wish them good luck as they travel to San Jose for their 1st round game vs. Murray State.
We would encourage everyone who can be there, should…even if that means be the “old guy” in the crowd.
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It’s been quite a roller-coaster ride for the Commodores (and their fans) this season. Vanderbilt enters the NCAA Tournament as a #4 seed in the West Regional with a date this Thursday against #13 seed Murray State. We’ll give a full preview of the game tomorrow, but in the meantime I thought a retrospective on the year so far was worth it.
24 Wins:
Given the fact that Vanderbilt played the 25th toughest schedule according to RealTimeRPI.com, those 24 wins are that much more impressive. Let’s look at these wins.
At Home:
Vanderbilt was 14-2 at Memorial Gym this year, a disappointing number when you consider the heartbreaking fashion of the two losses to Kentucky and South Carolina. Despite the much vaunted “analysis” by some moron named Bobby, Vanderbilt is, statistically speaking, a better team at home then thy are on the road. The Commodores margin of victory is 14.4 points a game (6 points higher than overall average), they are shooting 49.4% from the field (compared to 47% overall), and 36.3% from downtown (actually a worse percentage then their season average).
These statistics are someone exaggerated by the lopsided victories over Mercer, Manhattan, Southern Miss, and MTSU heading into conference play. The reality is that this Vanderbilt team does not rely on their home-court advantage the way previous teams have.
On the Road
The Commodores played 10 true road games, of which they won 7. The losses, all double digits, were disappointing for different reasons. The Illinois lose early in the year was frustrating because of the team’s lack of intensity. In fairness, the Illini shot the ball lights out, connecting on 59% of shots from the floor, and 53% from downtown.
Vanderbilt’s trip to Georgia was probably the most disappoint game of the season. Vanderbilt lead in the second half, but ended up losing the game by 14. The Commodores were out-rebounded by 15, shot just 32% from the field, and failed to get any offensive production from their front court. Georgia was another hot-shooting home team, hitting 53% from the floor, and connecting on 46% of their 3’s. It was a terrible game all around.
Then there was our trip to Lexington. Vanderbilt lost at Rupp 85-72 in a game where, statistically, the Cats were unbeatable. Calipari’s team shot 44% from the field, hit 53% from downtown (12 3’s in all), and out-rebounded the Commodores by 19. Still, the Commodores had a chance to cut the lead to 10 and tighten the game around the 6 minute mark when Jeffery Taylor missed a reserve dunk that Vanderbilt fans are still lamenting.
Now for the good news…Vanderbilt won 7 road games, including victories over 3 NCAA tournament teams in their own gym (St. Mary’s, Tennessee, and Florida). The Commodores were 6-2 in the SEC, an impressive record given how difficult it is to win in a conference opponent’s house. But most impressive of all as far as I’m concerned, is the fact that Vanderbilt won 4 road games that were decided by 4 points or less.
Like with the home games, the statistics in road games can be deceiving. Overall, Vanderbilt is shooting just 1.4% better than their opponents on the road (46.4% vs. 45%), is getting out-gunned from 3 (although only by .5%), and dominated on the boards (-33 or -3.3 boards a game). The shooting statistics aren’t that aberrant in wins or loses, however where you really see a difference is on the boards. Vanderbilt’s road opponents grabbed 33 more rebounds than they did overall. Georgia, Kentucky, and Illinois grabbed 39 more rebounds then the Commodores did. There’s your margin. Over the next few days, you’ll probably hear people question Vanderbilt’s ability to rebound away from Memorial. Hit’em with that stat and they’ll be sure to think twice about spewing Commodore hate.
Neutral Courts
The Commodores were just 3-3 in neutral court match-ups, perhaps the most discouraging stat cited so far. Vanderbilt’s neutral court games were really a mixed bag. Cincinnati and Western Kentucky were two terrible games. The Mississippi State game also wasn’t that encouraging, but given the stakes for the Bulldogs, the Commodores performance (might) be forgivable.
On the other hand, Vanderbilt looked great against Arizona and Georgia (Chaminade really isn’t worth rehashing).
Some encouraging stats are the fact that Vanderbilt is shooting 10% better from 3 on a neutral court (36% vs. 26%), attempted 10 more free throws, and is out-scoring their opponents by 33 points (opponents are out-scoring Vanderbilt by 8 in the first half). Add this fact, with the fact that Vanderbilt out-scored road opponents by 20 in the second half of road games bodes well for the Commodores going forward. Basically, that Vanderbilt is capable of coming from behind away from home, a key in the NCAA Tournament. When you hear experts talk about the Commodores being a team built to succeed away from home, this is the reason why.
Concluding Thoughts:
Vanderbilt has only lost back-to-back games once this season (@ Illinois and vs. Western Kentucky). I think we can all agree that even if the team hasn’t played it’s best basketball as of late, they are much improved from the team as it existed in December. Given the diversity and strength of the schedule Kevin Stallings put together, there is very little this team hasn’t seen over their first 32 games. This team’s depth, experience, athleticism, and ability to get scoring from a host of options certainly lends itself to succeeding in March.
For a complete statistical breakdown, check out Vanderbilt’s page at Kempom.com .
Look for our game preview Wednesday, and be sure to join the VSL Tournament Challenge (Group Name: VSL Challenge, Group Password).
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It’s the time of year where I totally lose sight of any priorities and post round the clock on VandySports.com. That should be where a blog (even a dying one) comes in handy, as I can collect my thought, post one long ramble instead of scattershot responses, and sort of get my impressions of the game ahead on record.
So, the first very legitimate question is: How good is Murray State? I don’t think anyone knows. On one hand virtually all the quantitative models tracked by Massey seem to believe they’re somewhere between the 45th and 75th team in the nation, and that Vanderbilt is somewhere between 20th and 35th. That’s a real edge, but not an overwhelming one. Plugging Pomeroy’s numbers into the log5 formula suggests we win 59% of the time, which is an awful lot of room for disappointment. Sagarin’s “predictor” is a two digit number with a two-digit decimal, so I’m not sure if I can log5 it by moving the decimal left two places — but if so, those numbers say we’re 57%.
Is Murray State that good?
What stands out as one looks at there schedule is that they’ve beaten absolutely nobody. California is their best opponent, and they lost by 5 on the road. Their best wins are two out of three against Morehead State (Pomeroy #96), the home one by 30 points! After that, looks like their best win is ETSU (Pomeroy #142). In six games against the Pomeroy top 130, they’re 2-4. So basically their efficiency rating suggests that they execute extremely well when beating up on bad teams. Even if I think Vanderbilt fans should take efficiency-based projections seriously, I can’t blame Vanderbilt fans for thinking Murray State hasn’t beaten anyone in the same echelon as Vanderbilt. They haven’t. (Doesn’t imply they absolutely can’t, of course.) By comparison, Siena had a great win over Stanford in 2008, even though Stanford had explanations for playing less than its best at a noon Eastern tipoff in Albany.
I’ll throw out one more quantitative way to look at this. I’m fascinated by a model presented by David Hess on The Audacity of Hoops attempting to use finer-grained stats to predict upsets. On the first two criteria, TO% margin (24.6 – 21.5) and Off Reb% margin (39.5 – 32.7), the Racers look scary indeed. But then I see that he filters out all those teams with an SoS of 150 or better, roughly the top half of all Division I schedules. The Racers are 289th. Interestingly, their sched is even easier when they play out of the dreadful OVC.
So what to make of it all? I’m open-minded that Murray State could be a tougher-than-normal 13-seed, and I certainly think if Vanderbilt doesn’t show up to play, we’ll get embarrassed. Of course without me knowing the psychological states of each team, it’s equally likely that the Racers don’t show up to play and we get another 77-44 win. Far more likely is an outcome somewhere in between there. I’m tempted to give VU a few points just because I think Stallings is great at outscheming the competition on limited preparation time. I realize that you have to be careful, that it could be a familiarity bias here, that Racers fans expect Billy Kennedy to outscheme every opponent. And I also realize that it’s awfully easy to excuse the outliers — Siena won because that squad of Commodores didn’t show up, not because of any systematic flaw in Stallings’ and the staff’s preparation. It’s convenient to believe that, but I really do believe it.
So for me the most likely outcome is that Vanderbilt beats the spread by several points, but not enough to satisfy those who smell blood in the water. Let’s say Vanderbilt 74, Murray State 65.
And then we can turn around and agonize anew over Butler or (slightly less likely) UTEP.
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Over the next couple of days, VSL will have some comprehensive coverage of Vanderbilt’s season thus far and our prospects for the first round match-up. But given the excitement of March Madness, here is a real quick look at the Ohio Valley Champion Murray State Racers, a very dangerous team.
Overall: 30-4 (28-4 against D-I opponents) (20-1 in OVC)
RPI: 57
Home Record: 13-0
Neutral: 4-0
Road: 11-4
SOS: 316
Quality Wins: Morehead State (x2) (RPI: 84)
Toughest Game: California (RPI: 20) 5-point loss.
Ken Pom #s:
Category
Adj. Efficiency:
108.3 [68] Offense
92.3 [45] Defense
Adj. Tempo:
67.3 [175]
Four Factors
Effective FG%:
55.4 [9] Offense
43.9 [14] Defense
Turnover %:
21.5 [235] Offense
24.6 [11] Defense
Off. Reb. %:
39.5 [12] Offense
32.7 [179] Defense
FTA/FGA:
42.9 [65] Offense
34.0 [97] Defense
Miscellaneous Components
3P%:
37.2 [55] Offense
34.0 [167] Defense
2P%:
55.3 [4] Offense
41.0 [4] Defense
FT%:
70.3 [131] Offense
69.9 [224] Defense
Block%:
7.8 [75] Offense
13.9 [15] Defense
Steal%:
9.5 [152] Offense
13.7 [6] Defense
Style Components
3PA/FGA:
31.3 [196] Offense
29.4 [67] Defense
A/FGM:
56.7 [91] Offense
51.2 [109] Defense
Defensive Fingerprint:
Mostly Man
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers:
24.8 [231] Offense
26.9 [174] Defense
2-Pointers:
53.8 [135] Offense
51.9 [169] Defense
Free Throws:
21.4 [151] Offense
21.3 [160] Defense
For those of you not familiar with Ken Pomeroy’s calculations, the most enticing numbers that support Murray State as a Cinderella are their Effective Field Goal %, both offensive and defensive, their defensive turnover %, their offensive rebounding % vs. offensive rebounding % allowed, and their 2-pt. % on offense and defense. These numbers suggest that Murray State runs a highly efficient offense and that they LOVE to get second chance points, which would be a mismatch if we decide to let them crash the boards for second chance opportunities.
Ken Pomeroy is supposed to adjust these numbers based on SOS, which is the glaring stat. Admittedly, I became a lawyer to avoid math, and so I won’t even begin to figure out how it works. But Murray State sure does pass the complex statistic test, which is the primary reason they look to be a dangerous 13 seed.
Murray State has 5 guys who average 10 points a game and a sixth who averages 9. They have 10 guys who average double figures in minutes, and six who averages over 20 minutes per game. They don’t have a whole ton of height, with their tallest player being 6′9″, 200 Pound Tony Easley. But they shoot 50% from the field as a team, and they get after the boards.
So there’s your quick and dirty on Murray State. What are our advantages? What are our disadvantages?
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It’s that time again. Join the readership of Vanderbilt Sports Line for the bragging rights to be the person that won the pool despite picking our beloved Commodores to win the National Championship. Click here for ESPN Bracket Challenge.
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It is a tremendously pleasant surprise to land a 4-seed, and an even more pleasant surprise to see who our opponents for the first and second rounds may be.
The cons, clearly, are that we have to go out West to play, and we’re in the same bracket as Syracuse. However, you can’t be disappointed with an opening game against Murray State (who shouldn’t be overlooked), and the winner of Butler-UTEP. Seth Davis likes our road, stating “I like Vandy to make the sweet 16.”
Discuss away! It’s Madness Time!
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Joe Lunardi’s bracket has Vanderbilt as a 5 seed against Siena, playing in Spokane, and placed in the same region as Vanderbilt with a match-up against Purdue in the second round.
SI.com’s Andy Glockner has Vanderbilt as a 4 seed against Houston in Jacksonvillle, and playing in the same region as Kansas.
RealTimeRPI.com has Vanderbilt moving up to 20.
Where do you think the Commodores will end up?
Where Will Vanderbilt Be Seeded?survey software
I’ll be in-transit, so Stanimal and Douglas James will be your guide as the seeding is announced.
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The loss hurts. Our seeding is now in the Selection Committee’s hands
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The Commodores are clearly in the NCAA Tournament Field, even if they don’t beat Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament semis. At this point, we’re playing for seeding, which means what we do on the court and what others do around the country are of equal importance.
Joe Lunardi’s current bracket has Vanderbilt as a #5 seed matching up with Utah State and playing in the same region as Syracuse. SI.com’s Andy Glockner also has the Commodores as a #5 matching up against San Diego State and also playing in Syracuse’s draw.
Andy and Joe have pretty much the same teams ahead of Vanderbilt. It’s simply a question of what seed lines the teams ahead of them are. The only difference is Temple, who Andy has as a #3, while Joe has them as a #5.
The question is, how far can they move up? Who do the Commodores need to lose to get a protected seed?
Lunardi’s other 4 seeds: Tennessee, Wisconsin, Michigan State, New Mexico
Only 1 of these four 4 seeds, Tennessee, is still alive. The Volunteers will play a rubber-match against Kentucky tipping off about this time this article is posted. Wisconsin, Michigan State, and New Mexico all lost yesterday. According to RealTimeRPI.com, Vanderbilt’s RPI is 22, while New Mexico is 8, Wisconsin is 15, Tennessee is 16, and Michigan State is 24. Vanderbilt beat Tennessee twice this season, so the notion that they could be seeded ahead of us continues to boggle my mind. If Vanderbilt wins and Kentucky wins, there is little doubt that Vanderbilt is deserving of at least a seed as high at UT. If UT beats UK then it would seem to be all the more impressive that Vanderbilt beat them twice (with a chance to do it thrice in the SEC Final). Wisconsin and Michigan State already lost, and Vanderbilt has a better RPI than the Trojans. With a win today, they should certainly jump up to the 4 line.
Can They Move Up to a 3?
Lunardi’s 3 seeds: Georgetown, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor; Glocker’s Got Temple on the 3 Line
Georgetown isn’t going anywhere but up. If they beat West Virginia, they could move up to the #2 line (especially if Purdue losses to the pesky Gophers of Minnesota). If they lose, they are still a great team with an RPI of 9 who made it to the championship game of the best conference in basketball. Villanova, Pitt, and Baylor are all done playing. Baylor’s RPI 7, ‘Nova is 10, and Pitt is 17. Despite struggling down the stretch, I have a difficult time believing Jay Wright’s Wildcats will be moved off this line. Similarly, Baylor’s RPI of 7 would make it difficult to move them down to a 4. The 3 seed Vanderbilt would be likely to displace would seem to be Pittsburgh. But in order to do that, they have to beat Mississippi State, and either have to beat Tennessee for the SEC Championship or lose to Kentucky close.
Is a 2 Seed Possible?
Lundari’s 2 seeds: West Virginia, Purdue, Ohio State, Kansas State
Probably not. It’s possible, but I think our ceiling is a 3 seed. 3 of these 4 #2 seeds can potentially move up to a #1 seed with a win today. 1 team, Purdue, is hanging on for dear life for their 2 seed. All 4 of these teams play today, and I think if West Virginia wins the Big East, Ohio State wins the Big Ten or KSU beats Kansas for the Big 12, they can make a compelling case to be a #1 seed. If Duke loses, then whichever team of these teams wins their conference tournament will be a #1.
As for Purdue, if they beat Minnesota, they’ll probably be a #2 unless Georgetown beats West Virginia, in which case the Hoyas are definitely a #2.
Bottom Line: Who I’ll Be Rooting Against
1. Mississippi State: Most of this conversation is moot if Vanderbilt doesn’t beat the Bulldogs
2. Tennessee: Vanderbilt’s stock rises the better their SEC Final opponent is. Add to that, the fact that it is difficult to beat a team (especially a rival) 3 times in one season. I think Vanderbilt wants to Cats tomorrow. Also, it’d be going against muscle-memory to root for the Volunteers.
3. Purdue: In my opinion, the Selection Committee with be looking for a reason to drop the Boilermakers. Add that to the fact that Minnesota can play their way in with a W and I’m rooting for the Gophers.
4. Temple: If Glockner is right, then Vanderbilt needs to jump the Owls as well. Right now, Rhode Island’s place in the field of 65 is precarious at best. They’ve got a lot to play for. Much like Minnesota, Commodore fans should root for the underdog both because it’s good for us, and it feels good.
5. Georgetown: This is a tough one given my residual bitterness over Jeff Green’s blatant travel in the Sweet Sixteen 3 years ago. Still, desperate times call for desperate measures, and I think Georgetown moves up to the 2 line freeing up on spot on the 3 line for the Commodores. I think a 3 seed is probably our ceiling (even if we win the SEC Tournament), and as such we’ll need room on the line.
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Vanderbilt’s match-up with Mississippi State, the second SEC Semifinal game will certainly get much less attention than the first game between Kentucky and Tennessee. That’s fine. Because whichever team emerges from that battle will hopefully be so emotionally exhausted, that their finals opponents (hopefully the Commodores) will be able to capitalize. But as the old cliche goes, one game at a time. Before Vanderbilt gets a shot at either the Wildcats or the Volunteers, they’ll have to get through another pack of Bulldogs. Only this time, these Dawgs are playing for more than just pride, they’re playing to make the field of 65.
Brief Recap:
Vanderbilt played a great tonight against the Georgia Bulldogs. For proper recaps, check out Jeff Lockridge’s Tennessean article, and David Boclair’s Nashville City Paper piece. My observations or highlights will be brief. Clearly, The Stroke, John Jenkins is the lead story for VSLNation. Jenkins showed tonight the scoring ability we hope to see for the next several years. Jenkins was 7-10 from the floor, 5-8 from downtown, and 6-6 from the charity stripe for a career high of 25 points. Beal added 16 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds, while A.J. contributed 10 points and 7 rebounds. I thought the Commodores stopped going to A.J. enough and that he should be taking more than 8 shots. Still, a solid performance.
The unsung heroes of tonight’s game were Andre Walker and Steve Tchiengang (a.k.a. Stevie Thunder). Walker had the kind of glue game that pleases observers of this team (or at least me) immensely. 6 points, 10 rebounds (5 offensive/5 defensive), 5 assists, 3 blocks. He did it all. Stevie Thunder added 9 points, grabbed 2 boards, played exceptionally good defense, and perhaps most importantly, provided a spark and intensity off the bench that the team needed. Of all the guys on the team, he looks like he’s playing the hardest and having the most fun. He is truly infectious to watch (and someone worth following on Twitter to boot).
A dark-spot, perhaps the lone on in this convincing win, was the play of Jeffery Taylor, who only netted 4 points, while grabbing 6 boards. He was 2-9 shooting, what’s surprising is that he didn’t get to the free throw line at all, something he’s only done two other times this season. The great thing about this Vanderbilt team is that there are a lot of guys who can hurt you on any given night. Still, I think this team is better and more dynamic on offense if one of those guys in Jeffery.
Looking at Mississippi State
The Bulldogs beat Florida 75-69, and withstood a pretty fierce comeback back by the Gators after the game looked out of reach. Some things about their win stand out to me though:
1. Florida out-rebounded Mississippi State 34-23, the entire margin of which was on the offensive glass. In fact, Florida out-scored the Bulldogs 12-2 in second chance points. This leads me to believe that MSU is not a great rebounding team and that if Vanderbilt can establish themselves early on the boards, like they did against Georgia, then they will put themselves in a great position to win.
2. This team lives and dies by the 3 pointer. MSU was 10-20 last night.
3. Mississippi State’s balanced scoring attack means everyone on the floor has be accounted for on the offensive end. In last night’s game, 5 MSU players started and scored in double digits (against the Commodores, only 4 reached double figures).
Mississippi State’s best known player is 3-time SEC Defensive Player of the Year Jarvis Varnado, who is the all-time shot-blocker in college basketball history. Still, I’m not sure he is the key. Stewart Barry played a great time, pouring in 17 points against Florida. And Dee Bost, the diminutive point guard is the kind of player that Vanderbilt always has a difficult time suceessfully defended. Like Vanderbilt was able to do last night, the key for this team is not letting 2 players get hot at the same him. Mississippi State fan, who we’ll affectionate refer to as Professor Baby Daddy, thinks the Mississippi State team is as good as 6′8 forward Kodi Augustus. Augustus was the Bulldogs leading scorer when the teams faced off in Nashville, pouring in 15 points on 6-12 shooting, in Vanderbilt’s 75-72 win.
Bobby’s Keys:
1. Free Throws: I said this was a key last night and it ended up not being. So I figure, what’s the likelihood I’m wrong twice? I guess we’ll find out. Vanderbilt attempted 5 more free throws that Mississippi State when these teams met in early February, of which they made 4. Vanderbilt won the game by 4. You do the math. The Commodores were able to get the Bulldogs in foul trouble in Nashville, with Varnado picking up 4, while forward Ravern Johnson fouled out. The Commodores would be well advised look to get this team in foul trouble early.
2. Depth. Again, relying of the expertise of Professor Baby Daddy, who saus Mississippi State is not a very deep team, Vanderbilt should look to play an up-tempo game and force the Bulldogs to commit a lot of fouls early. There is a serious drop-off in talent once Coach Rick Stansbury has to go to the bench. For one thing, I thought Kevin Stallings’ decision to press, trap right before the half-court line, and then fall back into that 2-3 zone was a great strategy against Georgia. I can’t help but think we’ll see more of that today. Consider this, in their last 3 regular season games, Mississippi State’s bench scored a combined 13 points. They scored 11 last night against the Gators. If they bench is M.I.A. Vanderbilt has a much better chance to win.
3. Defending the Three. Mississippi State likes to fire 3 pointers. If they are hitting them, they are a tough team to beat. When they’re not, they’re not. In SEC play, the Bulldogs are 4-5 when they shoot below 33% from downtown, and 6-2 when they shoot better than that. MSU shoots 40.7% from downtown when they win and just 28.7% when they lose.
4. High-Scoring Affair. Mississippi State is 13-3 when opponents score 65 points or less, and just 9-7 when their opponents score over 65 a game. For their part, the Bulldogs are 11-2 when they reach 75 points or more.
Vanderbilt Faces Mississippi State in the SEC Semifinals: Who Ya Got?survey
The NYC Commodore Crew anchored by Douglas James and myself will be at Barrow Street Ale House with many stalwarts of VSLNation. A welcoming group, Professor Baby Daddy and his wife, the lovely Knocked Up will be watching the game with us. Wife of Bobby will undoubtedly have to rely on her many years of friendship with these two to withstand the absurdity and offensiveness of my behavior in front of our dear friends. There won’t be a live-blog, but as always, you can follow my thoughts on our Twitter feed, VSLNation. Game tips 30 minutes after the conclusion of the Kentucky/Tennessee game on ABC, but not before 3:15 eastern. Should be a good one.
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What do you think it should be, Chris Low’s comment after last night’s game added another possibility to the mix, what do you think it should be.
VSL’s Official Nickname for John Jenkins Should Be…surveys
Editor’s Note: I reserve the right to ignore your suggestion and call him whatever I want. I, however, cannot speak for Stanimal, Douglas James, or the honeymooning Seamus, who might have more respect for the democratic process than I do.
Content provided by Vanderbilt Sports Line.
Content provided by Vanderbilt Sports Line.
No live-blog, but follow us on Twitter or check the right hand side of the page for my thoughts on the game as they happen.
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Jeff Lockridge has a story in the Tennessean about how the Commodores expect to play Saturday (and beyond).
The Nashville City Paper’s David Boclair recaps Georgia’s win over Arkansas and looks ahead to their match-up with Vanderbilt tonight.
The Atlanta-Journal Constitution’s Tim Tucker notes that Georgia’s win in the opening round of the SEC Tournament was the team’s first outside the State of Georgia.
Here’s Joe Fisher’s Friday Update from 104.5 The Zone, who says both Brad and Lance will play, and that the team is “as healthy as they’ve been all year.”
VUCommodores.com’s SEC Tournament Preview
We’ll have updates throughout the day
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Vanderbilt Faces Georgia in the SEC Quarterfinals: Who Ya Got in the Rubber Match?survey software
I’ve got to tell you, 7.5 seems like a lot of points to me.
Before voting, you should know:
- UGA’s average margin of defeat in SEC play was 8 points
- The Dawg’s lost their last 2 SEC games by a combined 4 points
- The Bulldogs hadn’t won outside the State of Georgia this season until yesterday
- The Dawgs are 1-0 in games played at a neutral site
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Rebounding: In Vanderbilt’s two match-ups against the Bulldogs, they were out-rebounded 83-63. That can’t happen if Vanderbilt is going to advance.
Second-Half 3pt Shooting: Vanderbilt has been ice-cold in the second halves of their two games against the Dawgs this year. Vanderbilt managed to connect on just 2-16 three point attempts in the 2nd half of these two games. Compare that to UGA, who was 9-14 from downtown in these halves.
Free Throws: Vanderbilt wins games when they get to the free throw line more than their opponents. They attempted 5 fewer free throws in their loss in Athens, and 13 more in their overtime win at Memorial.
Controlling the Paint: Vanderbilt is -28 in points in the paint against Georgia. Part of that was based on the absolutely abysmal play of the front court in Athens (the guards scored 40 of the team’s 58 points). A.J. had a big game in Nashville, and will need to do the same. I’m also looking for Andre and Stevie Thunder to contribute inside, to say nothing of Jeffery Taylor, who has been kept in check by the Dawgs (averaging just 7 points in 2 contests).
Trey Thompkins: Looking at the 4th point this from a slightly different angle, Seamus and Stanimal weighed in. Seamus thinks if one key to emphasis is not allowing the easy entry pass to Thompkins. If the Commodores can really force them to work hard for a good shot that will put pressure on their outside shooters and not allow them to just go inside-out and get open looks. Stanimal adds the importance of getting Thompkins in foul trouble. For what it’s worth, Georgia is just 3-8 when Trey Thompkins commits 4 of more fouls.
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Seamus has an interesting take that I thought we should open up to the floor. He writes: “Unless he is really going to be back to normal in the next day or two, I think it makes sense to hold Tinsley out until the SEC Championship game. Why? Because I’d rather have a 5-seed and three guards at 100% in the Dance than a 3 or 4 seed with no guard depth when we really need it.”
I’m not sure I agree, especially with Brad’s role coming off the bench. I don’t think holding out a player should be done unless absolutely necessary. It disrupts the team’s flow and chemistry, two pretty important things this time of year. I don’t think Brad should go “Willis Reed” or anything like that, but if he’s health enough to play, he should, even if his action is limited.
What do you think?
Should Kevin Stallings Sit Brad for the SEC Tournament?opinion
