SEC Football

1. The Florida-Miami series may not be renewed. Miami A.D. – “There hasn’t been any conversation and there isn’t anything on the schedule for the future.” Georgia and Florida State discuss potential 2016 matchup.

2. Is Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel a top-five SEC quarterback?  MrSEC’s Josh Ward thinks so.

3. Athlon’s preseason rankings have the Gators coming in at No. 13. Florida’s game against Tennessee already sold out.

4. Toughest matchups for LSU this fall? Games at Alabama and Georgia. Suspension at TCU huge break for the Tigers?

5. Best red zone defense last three years?  If you guessed Alabama, you weren’t wrong.

6. Nick Saban gets asked for reaction to Charlie Weis’ comments about the SEC. ”I just think our league is fantastic.”

7. Saban’s daughter, a sorority fight and a lawsuit.

8. Several Auburn freshman, including quarterback Jeremy Johnson,  arrived on campus Tuesday – just ahead of summer classes.

9. Former Georgia linebacker Christian Robinson re-joining program as graduate assistant.

10. At Arkansas, one Mitchell leaves while another emerges (not related to the author nor connected to the Joe Don Baker movie)

11. Do people “love to hate Bret Bielema”?

12. Three reasons why Kentucky shouldn’t drop Louisville in football.

13.  Three of Stewart Mandel’s top five nonconference games for the first month of the 2013 season feature SEC teams.

14. Andy Staples plays the “what-if” game – looks at what could have happened with a four-team playoff in college football the last 10 years.

SEC/College News

15. Jon Solomon: “47 percent of the Division I public universities listed in a recent USA Today Sports revenue database increased coaches and staff pay at a higher rate than their athletic scholarship costs” Breakdown by school.

16. A Florida State recruit now wants to play at Georgia or Miami – but FSU won’t grant a release.

17. Kevin Scarbinsky on troubles at Auburn.  ”It’s been a long, strange year for the Tigers in so many ways.”

18. Kentucky athletes post the highest cumulative GPA during Mitch Barnhart’s time as athletics director.

SEC Basketball

19. Auburn A.D. Jay Jacobs on coach Tony Barbee: “Now he’s got to produce. We’ve got to look for results.”

20. Alabama A.D. Bill Battle on coach Anthony Grant: “I think he’s the right guy for our job.”

21. Andrew Wiggins chooses Kansas - may have not been a fit at Kentucky anyway “The Cats have almost too many good players scheduled to arrive on campus.”

22. Big loss for LSU recruiting.  Assistant coach Robert Kirby reportedly leaving for Memphis. (Before LSU, he was at Georgetown, where he recruited projected top five NBA pick Otto Porter, Jr.)

23. Point guard Kasey Hill compared to John Wall and Rajon Rondo –  expected to make a big impact at Florida.

24. Tennessee players Armani Moore and Josh Richardson headed to the Dominican Republic this summer.

25. Men’s basketball makes the biggest jump  of any program at Georgia according  to the latest NCAA Academic Progress Rate report.

Extras

26. Schools with the highest-paid NBA alums – LSU, Kentucky and Florida make the list.

27. New sport approved at LSU - sand volleyball for women.

28. Original report – Michigan State recruit giving up football to pursue rap career. Revised report – School pulled scholarship after profanity-laced video showed up on YouTube.

29. Hawaii getting the “Rainbow” back.

30. Memphis puts the punter on the cover of the media guide.

31. ESPN reporter Jeannine Edwards and Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer getting married.

Last fall, plenty of people moaned, whined and complained that Georgia had been given an easy path through the Southeastern Conference.  Apparently those folks won’t be able to voice displeasure with the Dawgs’ upcoming schedules.

According to Georgia athletic director Greg McGarity, Mark Richt’s team won’t have to worry about his squad’s strength of schedule in the first year of the new College Football Playoff:

“From our standpoint, the University of Georgia doesn’t have to worry about that in 2014 because our strength of schedule is already off the chart for the next two years.  Who knows what the ’15 schedule will be, but we just know that in ’13 and ’14, the strength of schedule is not an issue here in Athens…

We have an idea of who we’ll play, but we don’t know when we’ll play.  We know it will be a road game because Auburn’s come back here in 2014.  Whoever we play on the West side will be a road game.  It hasn’t been finalized but Destin is when we’re planning to see everything because we’ve all got to move forward with dates, campus dates, homecoming dates and things like that.”

Georgia will host LSU in late-September as its rotating West opponent this year.  Auburn — the Bulldogs’ permanent cross-division rival — will welcome Georgia in mid-November.  UGA will also open the season with a non-conference date at Clemson.

In addition to its SEC slate, Georgia will once again open 2014 season with Clemson, but that game will be at Sanford Stadium.

First, what’s said at a booster club probably shouldn’t make national news.  But in a world with social media, cell phone cameras, and booster events attended by media members, what’s said at those luncheons and dinners does make national news.

For that reason, Florida offensive line coach Tim Davis probably shouldn’t have said this in front of a Gator fan club yesterday:

“I’ve always wanted to work with Will (Muschamp).  Will’s got a plan.  Will coached under the devil himself for seven years.  I only did three.  He did seven.  And his DNA is not any different than Nick…

Will’s like the other guy, only he’s got a personality.  He’ll smile at you.  He’ll talk to you.  You understand?  that’s what he’s all about.  That’s Will.  I’m proud to work for him.”

Right.  And here comes Prince Charming now:

Davis is the second SEC coach to make a Luciferian reference to Saban this offseason.  Vanderbilt’s James Franklin called Alabama’s coach “Nicky Satan” at a high school awards banquet in Georgia back in January.  He later called the Tide’s coach to apologize.

At least Davis made his comment in front of Florida fans.

Of course, the fact that Davis actually worked with Saban in the NFL and for a year at Alabama makes his comment seem a bit more serious than Franklin’s poorly-timed joke.

After the SEC and ESPN unveiled the new SEC Network and some of their programming plans for it, Mike Slive referenced the fact that the SEC and CBS had also agreed on a new deal.  As part of that deal, the SEC Network will be able to air an afternoon game each Saturday which means CBS had to agree to nix its exclusive hold on that timeslot.

What else changed in the reworked agreement is unknown.

CBSSports.com’s Jeremy Fowler writes that the terms of that agreement “are expected to remain intact,” meaning the deal will still run through 2023-24 and that the network will continue to pay the SEC $55 million per year for, basically, one game per week and the rights to the SEC Championship Game.

According to Fowler’s source, “the renegotiation also included the exchange of non-revenue assets that weren’t disclosed by a source.”

So did expansion pay off for the SEC if the CBS deal remains the same?

Absolutely.

While each school’s split of the CBS revenue will be smaller — $55 million divided by 15 as opposed to $55 million divided by 13, with the league office always taking a full share — the new revenue stream created as a result of CBS’ acquiescence on the exclusivity front will more than make up for that shrinking portion.  Think of it like a meal… if CBS is the appetizer — cash-wise — and ESPN the main course, the appetizer will get smaller but the main course will get larger.

If Fowler’s source is correct and CBS is not having to pay more money to an expanded SEC, that’s a win for the network.  It’s product can also be rebroadcast by ESPN on the SEC Network which is promotion for CBS’ SEC game of the week programming.  Whether any CBS advertisers will get “bonus” runs on ESPN remains to be seen (Aflac, for example, will get more eyeballs for its weekly in-game trivia question with a re-airing on the SEC Network).

Also, CBS continues to have the first pick of SEC games each week.

For the SEC, they’ve given up nothing (that we know of) other than the potential for greater revenue from CBS.  In exchange, they’ve given themselves the opportunity to air three college football games on their new network each Saturday which should help the channel get cable and satellite carriage more quickly.  And ESPN will be throwing money at the league for the right to broadcast those SEC games whether the network gains immediate carriage or has to fight for it slowly.

One other point: Assuming the SEC is still a juggernaut in 2023-24 — and the league’s financial outlook suggests it will be –  and live football games are still pulling enormous ratings for networks, the SEC will be able to put its game of the week package back on the open market and cut a new massive deal with CBS or another distributor in 10 years.

With the information we currently have in hand, this renegotiation appears to be a win for both the Southeastern Conference and CBS.

With the Big Ten holding meetings in Chicago this week, microphones and cameras have been thrust into the face of commissioner Jim Delany.  Matt Hayes of The Sporting News relates Delany’s reaction to the question of why it’s been important for the Big Ten to add schools located in contiguous states:

“You look at those on the outside (of conferences), and things don’t always hold together.  Schools on the perimeter haven’t held together.  Arkansas was on the perimeter in the Southwest Conference and eventually left for the SEC.  Nebraska was on the perimeter in the Big XII (away from multiple schools in Texas), Maryland was on the perimeter in the ACC (away from multiple schools in North Carolina).  It’s not a coincidence that these things happened.  But again, I don’t think anyone could have predicted what has happened.”

To quote Alice Cooper, these words he speaks are true.  Schools farther from the hub of a league — Nebraska, Missouri and Colorado were not adjacent to the six Big XII schools in Texas and Oklahoma, Maryland was not adjacent to the six ACC schools in the Carolinas and Georgia — are more likely to be lured away by other conferences.

Obviously, other factors are involved other than geography.  In Maryland’s case, the issue was money.  In Nebraska and Texas A&M’s case, weariness of Texas’ domination of league politics played a role.  League strength and wealth also matters as no schools in the Big Ten or SEC — periphery or not — have toyed with leaving their current homes.

At MrSEC.com, we are not believers in fly-over conferences.  If schools on conference borders are more likely to switch leagues, what does that tell you about schools located in states that share no borders with conference mates?  It brought down the expanded Big East and it will likely bring down the reconstituted American Athletic Conference as well (though smaller leagues have an easier time pulling it off because most big leagues aren’t after small schools).  But when it comes to West Virginia’s place in the Big XII?  Unless the Big XII expands, that marriage likely won’t last beyond the current grant of rights agreement.  This is also another reason we believe the Florida State administration was ultimately wise to gauge the SEC’s interest and then sign on to stay put.  Had FSU (or Clemson or Virginia Tech) jumped to the Big XII they’d be just as much of an outside as West Virginia.

As for the SEC schools on the periphery, you can stop worrying.  The SEC makes too much money, has too much strength, and its schools work together too well for Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, or South Carolina to look elsewhere.

There’s an old adage in college football that’s been passed down in pregame talk after pregame talk, decade after decade.  Different coaches have phrased it differently, but the central message conveyed has remained the same since the days of leather helmets.

“The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.”

When it comes to football in the Southeastern Conference — a league known for its superior defenses — that one simple sentence is all a fan needs to know.  At the stadium or watching in HD from home, fans can begin every ballgame with the knowledge that the more their team’s turnover count rises, the more their team’s chances of winning decline.

That might not sound like much of a revelation, but six years worth of numbers pound home the fact that nothing — absolutely nothing — has as much bearing on the outcome of an SEC football game as turnovers.  You can set aside quarterback comparisons and coaching matchups.  You don’t need to break down two schools’ special teams units.  When asked who’ll win the next big SEC football game, just respond: “The team that wins the turnover battle.”

Regular readers of this site — as opposed to you irregular readers — know that we like to provide you with an annual examination of the SEC’s turnover statistics.  This year is no exception and below you’ll find the numbers for the 2012 season, the league’s first with 14 teams and a 57-game league schedule (including the SEC Championship Game).  We’ll also show you the updated six-year tally of turnover data.

But first, for the sake of comparison, we want you to see the impact fumbles and interceptions have had on the SEC standings over the past five years.

Below are the turnover numbers from 2007 through 2011.  We’ve included only conference games, SEC versus SEC.  In a 12-school league that equaled 49 games per year counting the SEC title game in Atlanta.  Therefore, the tables below contains 245 games worth of data.

In the first chart, we show you how teams fared when they turned the ball over zero times, once, twice, thrice, or four or more times in an SEC contest.  In the second chart you’ll see — in games where one team held a turnover advantage over another — how those teams on the positive side of the turnover battle fared record-wise.  (A tip for the mathematically-challenged: Reverse the numbers in the bottom chart and you can quickly figure out the records for teams that finished on the negative side of the turnover battle, too.)

2007-2011 SEC Games

As you can see, over the span of 245 SEC contests it’s abundantly clear that turnovers play an enormous role in who wins and who loses.  In fact, over the final five years of the 12-school SEC, teams that did not turn the ball over in a game won 75% of the time.

Think about that: Not turning the ball over = 75% chance of winning an SEC football game.

The chart showing turnover margins is even more telling.  If a team finished plus-one in turnover margin, it had a 71% chance of winning its game.  Finish plus-two and the number jumped to an 80% chance of victory.  Plus-three teams won an astounding 90% of the time.

See why we say you can toss all the other comparisons and breakdowns?

Now let’s look at last year, the 2012 season.  The SEC expanded by two teams which added eight more games to the overall conference slate.  Did we see much difference in a 57-game SEC season?

Read the rest of this entry »

Out with the old.  In with the new.

With the SEC/Big East Challenge dying — right along with the Big East as we knew it — the Southeastern Conference has found a new league to play against in the early part of each basketball season.  The SEC confirmed today what had been rumored for months — the Big XII/SEC Challenge will begin play in 2013-14.

The two leagues also recently partnered in taking control of the Sugar Bowl, which should turn into a fast-flowing revenue stream for both conferences.

Naturally, ESPN is behind the new hoops challenge.  All 10 Big XII teams will take part, while only 10 of the SEC’s 14 schools get to participate (for obvious reasons).  Like the old Big East challenge, the title of the series will flip-flop each year with the SEC getting top billing next season.

“The ability to showcase SEC basketball in this kind of conference competition makes this a unique and exciting event for our coaches, student-athletes and fans,” SEC commissioner Mike Slive said via press release.  “We are pleased to be able to work with the Big XII and ESPN to highlight the sport of men’s basketball.”

Here are the matchups for Year One of the Big XII/SEC Challenge.  (Arkansas, Georgia, LSU and Tennessee are the SEC squads not taking part.)

Thursday, November 14th — Texas Tech at Alabama

Monday, December 2nd — Vanderbilt at Texas, Auburn at Iowa State

Thursday, December 5th — Ole Miss at Kansas State, West Virginia at Missouri, TCU at Mississippi State

Friday, December 6th — South Carolina at Oklahoma State, Kentucky vs. Baylor (at Arlington, Texas)

Tuesday, December 10th — Kansas at Florida

Saturday, December 21st — Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma (at Houston, Texas)

In its first year this new challenge might have already equaled the number of interesting matchups created in six years of the SEC/Big East challenge.

Future schedules will be put together with input from ESPN, the SEC and the Big XII.  With the Big XII having a say, it will be interesting to see if Texas and Kansas ever OK a games with Texas A&M and Missouri, respectively.  Obviously, that won’t be happening this year.

We’ve gone down this road ourselves a time or two (or three) over the years, but it’s good to see others are in agreement: Good football coaches are worth the millions they are paid.

When it comes to football coaching salaries, yes, they may be too high in the grand scheme of things.  In a perfect world — at least in our view — educators and ministers and social workers and others who dedicate their lives to the well-being and growth of others should be paid more than a guy who draws Xs and Ox on a chalkboard.  But we don’t live in a perfect world.  We live in a world where colleges depend on multi-million dollar football programs for cash and exposure.  Because of that, successful college coaches aren’t overpaid at all.

Tom Van Riper of Forbes Magazine made that case yesterday when writing of Alabama’s Nick Saban:

“If you think that a top college football coach earning seven figures is overpaid, think again.  To appreciate just how modest Saban’s $5.3 million salary is, take a wider look around campus.  Since 2007, Tuscaloosa has swelled its undergraduate ranks by 33% to over 28,000 students.  Faculty count has kept pace: up 400 since 2007 to over 1,700.  But it’s more than growth — it’s where the growth is coming from.  According to the school, less than a third of the 2007 freshman class of 4,538 students hailed from out of state.  By the fall of 2012, more than half (52%) of a freshman class of 6,397 students did.  Various data from US News and The New York Times shows that the school’s out-of-state tuition cost — nearly three times higher than the rate for in-state students — rose from $18,000 to $22,950 a year during that period.

Add it up — more students from outside Alabama paying ever-increasing premium tuition bills — and the school realized $50 million more in out-of-state tuition revenue for last fall’s incoming class than it did for the same class in 2007 ($76 million vs. $26 million).  Kick in the additional $8.5 million in in-state tuition, which rose to $9,200 a year from $6,400 over the same period, and overall tuition revenue rose to $104 million from $46 million for the respective 2012 and 2007 freshman classes.  And to boot, the school’s most recent capital campaign (i.e. donations from alumni and others) raised $600 million for scholarship and facilities, the most ever.”

One can debate whether a school’s mission should be to educate the people of its area or to make more cash by luring in students from elsewhere.  One can also debate how much focus a school should place on athletics.

What’s not up for debate is the fact that successful coaches bring in more money — through increased ticket sales, increased merchandise sales, donations, exposure on national television, etc — than they are paid out.

That’s not just true of football coaches.  While the guys on the gridiron typically earn more, winning basketball coaches like Kentucky’s John Calipari can also up a school’s revenues.  And while a monocled professor of advanced themodynamics or Sanskrit might argue, those increased revenues do aid the school as a whole… not just its athletic department.

With athletics serving as the best advertisement for a school, hiring and paying a successful football or basketball coach is nothing more than an investment of the university’s funds.  Officials at Alabama and Kentucky can tell you that sometimes a big investment can result in big rewards.

SEC Football

1. Auburn was “a lot better than a three-win team” last year, according to defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson.

2. Nick Saban is bringing out-of-states students to Alabama, which is helping generate millions of dollars.

3. LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis is confident in his defense. “The thing we’ve got to do is build that depth.”

4. Joe Schad reports Tennessee is in the running for transfer QB Wes Lunt. UT should make a run at Lunt, writes Barrett Sallee.

5. From yesterday: Kansas coach Charlie Weis backed Bob Stoops’ recent criticism of the SEC.

6. Florida coach Will Muschamp is a popular man with fans following a successful season in 2012.

7. Georgia’s offensive line can be one of the greatest lines in school history, says lineman Chris Burnette.

8. Jacquese Kirk, who recently transferred from Vanderbilt, admitted to stabbing an ex-teammate in April.

SEC Basketball

9. Swingman DeVon Walker had a change of heart and will return to Florida for his sophomore season.

10. Star prospect Andrew Wiggins will announce his decision today at 12:15 ET. Kentucky is an underdog in the race.

11. Analysts from around the nation weighed in on Wiggins’ pending decision and his potential impact in college.

Extra

12. Auburn president Jay Gogue wrote a letter to fans following an evaluation of Auburn Athletics.

13. Southern Cal coach Lane Kiffin discussed the idea of one day coaching high school football.

14. Matt Hayes writes that Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher shouldn’t release Matthew Thomas without consequence.

Bob Stoops coached in the SEC many moons ago, when the league was dominated annually by Florida and Tennessee.  So last week when he said the SEC’s repuation as a strong league was a product of “propaganda,” it was easy to say he didn’t know what he was talking about.

But Charlie Weis coached in the SEC in 2011.  He knows the current slobber-knockin’ SEC.  And the Kansas head coach — who like Stoops served as an assistant at Florida — agrees that the SEC ain’t all it’s cracked up to be:

“Do you know the stats?  In the SEC, the record of the good guys and the bad guys?

… I’m just sayin’, you look at the bottom of our league and the bottom of their league, just going based off the numbers, there’s validity in what he said.  I’m just going based off the numbers, I mean, I’m a numbers guy.  Just based off the numbers, you’d have to say (Stoops) has got a point.”

Apparently the argument that the good guys and bad guys are worlds apart is based on the fact that the top six teams in the SEC went 30-0 against the bottom eight teams in the league last year.  And, yep, that’s a pretty ugly nugget for the bottom eight teams to have to swallow.

But in how many leagues can you talk about a “top six?”

The Big Ten over the past decade has basically had Ohio State on top.  Southern Cal and Oregon have owned the Pac-12.  In the Big XII, the league title has gone to Texas or Oklahoma every year since 2004.  By comparison, the SEC hasn’t had a repeat champion since 1998.

Just last season the SEC finished the year with five teams ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll.  The Pac-12 had two teams.  The Big Ten had one.  The ACC had one.  Notre Dame was also in the top 10.  No Big XII team finished in the AP top 10.

In the Big XII’s case, was that a product of uber-parity or the lack of nationally-strong teams up top?  In the SEC’s case, was the domination at the top due to a weak bottom of the league or superior talent among the frontrunners?  Seven consecutive BCS championships would suggest it had more to do with the strength at the top than weakness at the bottom.

A quick scan of both leagues’ records against the remaining “big five” conferences (plus Notre Dame) shows that Big XII teams went 9-5 against the big boys in 2012 for a .642 winning percentage.  The SEC went 13-6 against teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, and Pac-12 (plus Notre Dame) for a winning percentage of .684.

But this argument isn’t about numbers.  It’s about SEC fatigue.  Everyone outside the SEC is tired of hearing how strong the conference is – they probably shouldn’t listen to NFL GMs — and they’ll look for any possible excuse to run down the league that’s run up seven BCS titles in a row.

Even if it means coaches from a two-team league attacking a conference that’s only six teams deep.

Get used to it.  As long as the SEC is winning, this talk will continue.  And once the SEC finally loses a national championship game, the “I told ya so” chorus will be deafening.  Be prepared.