2009 SEC Title Game: What To Watch

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Since tomorrow’s title bout in Atlanta has been analyzed, broken down, picked apart and forecasted to death, we’ll keep our views short and sweet.



THE KEY FOR ALABAMA –

More than likely, Florida will take a page from the Auburn gameplan and stack the box against the Crimson Tide offense.  Mark Ingram has been the Tide’s workhorse all season, but against the Tigers he found little running room up the gut — where he likes to run.  He also took a nasty hit to his hip which he now says is fine. 

If UF does stack the box, offensive coordinator Jim McElwain and Greg McElroy will need to take their shots with Julio Jones down the field.  That might sound obvious, but remember, UA went to everyone but Jones for a good chunk of their season.  Nick Saban finally intervened, McElroy started looking for Jones more, and the Tide offense re-ignited. 

Against Auburn, Jones was hardly a factor until the fourth quarter.  In the game’s final drive, he took over.  Matched against All-American corner Joe Haden tomorrow, McElwain and McElroy might be inclined to look elsewhere.  They shouldn’t. 

Alabama needs to attack Florida down the field to pull Gator defenders out of the box and free up space for Ingram and Trent Richardson.

Speaking of Richardson, if the Gators do take away Ingram up the middle, the freshman will have to show flashes on the outside as he did against Auburn.

But I repeat, the key for Alabama is to keep Jones involved.



THE KEY FOR FLORIDA –

Alabama’s defense is as good as Florida’s and, therefore, just as good as anyone else’s in the country.  Their defensive line is especially tough, anchored by the monstrous Terrence Cody.

Don’t be fooled if Cody’s name isn’t called much tomorrow.  Often teams refuse to run into the middle of the UA line — avoiding Cody — and take their chances trying to get to the outside.  Take a look at the numbers and you’ll see that they don’t have much success doing that, either.

Pre-concussion, post-concussion, the Gator offense becomes The Tim Tebow Show on third down.  When in crunch time, Tebow turns into a battering ram of a fullback and pounds his way up the middle for one conversion after another.

Tomorrow, against Alabama’s defensive wall, that has to change.  Tebow should not be asked to bang his head and body into Cody and mates on too many occasions.

The Gators’ key then?  Allowing Tebow to show off his passing skills.  Whether he’s targeting fast backs out of the backfield (to exploit the hole left by injured linebacker Dont’a Hightower) or Anthony Hernandez and Riley Cooper down the field, Tebow’s arm needs to be a bigger part of UF’s plan than his legs.

If Florida keeps Tebow fresh early, he could be ready for another “I’ll take over the game now” fourth quarter.

Only three teams rushed for more than 100 yards versus Bama.  At the same time Stephen Garcia, Jonathan Crompton, and Chris Todd all threw for at least 180 on them.  Tebow should be able to do the same… and more.



OTHER FACTORS –

* When he has a championship-level team, Urban Meyer knows how to push the right buttons in big games.  In 2006, 2008 and this year he is undefeated against the Gators’ three top rivals.  He is unbeaten in two SEC title games and in two BCS title games.  His only losses in ‘06 and ‘08 came at #10 Auburn and against an overlooked Ole Miss team.  Forget the Carlos Dunlap distraction, Meyer will have his team focused.

* In a game that should be dominated by the defenses, the return game will be huge.  If Brandon James returns a kick for a TD or if Javier Arenas does likewise with a punt, it could be tough for the other team to recover.

* For the past three weeks, I’ve thought Alabama had the advantage in this matchup.  Revenge, payback, finishing a season the right way (as opposed to last year), you name it, I’ve thought Bama held a slight psychological edge. 

I also happen to agree with Lane Kiffin’s recent statement that Florida has the better players while Alabama has the better coaches.  Not by much, but by a hair.  Saban almost won last year’s title game.  Now he’s another recruiting class closer to matching Meyer’s talent level.  Smells like a Bama win to me.

But knowing all that, the closer we get to kickoff, the more I keep thinking one thought: “What kind of nut would pick against Tim Tebow?”

Tebow has willed his team to victory before.  He is as much a one-man team as the conference has ever seen… except he’s actually surrounded by great athletes.  If he stands out above them, what does that tell you?

But I’m going to go with my gut anyway. 

Superman might make me eat these words, but I’m taking Alabama in a VERY close 26-23 game.

Let’s hope the game is as spectacular as the buildup.