Projecting The Bowls? Good Luck

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With seven games on the SEC schedule this weekend, there’s still very little settled when it comes to the league’s bowl bids.

About all we know is — barring some surprise losses by the nation’s top teams — Florida and Alabama will be playing in BCS bowls come January.

Technically, however, even LSU is still in the running for a BCS bid.  And there’s still an outside chance that as many as six SEC teams coudl finish with identical 7-5 records.

How would the bowls split that mess up?

When you’re looking at the possibilities for your favorite team, remember a couple of things:

* Bowls are NOT set up to provide interesting matchups.  That’s a secondary goal.  The first goal is to bring happy fans into the bowl’s host community for a few days.  So just because you’re team has a better record than another team, don’t think that that guarantees you a better bowl slot.  Pay attention to the perceived mood of your fanbase as well as their recent travel history.

* Head-to-head matchups might not mean a thing.  In a year with so many teams bunched between 8-4, 7-5 and 6-6 records, any “well we beat so-and-so” arguments could quickly become a circular exercise that would melt the mind of the average bowl committee member.  When in doubt to revert Point One — which school will travel the best.

* Think of the bowl selection process as you do the NFL draft.  If one person (or team in this case) slips, it can set off a chain reaction that leaves that initial “slipee” to slide farther than anyone might imagine.  For example, Tennessee was ranked #6 in the nation in 2003 and fell all the way to the Chick-fil-A Bowl.  Absolutely nothing is guaranteed.

* To beat that point home, memorize this line from Clint Eastwood’s masterpiece “Unforgiven” — “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it.”  Keep that in mind and you shouldn’t be too surprised if your team drops all the way to the Papajohns.com Bowl.

All that said, let’s waste a little time and try to figure out who might go where this bowl season.



PLAYING THE FAVORITES

If the guys in Las Vegas are correct, this weekend’s action will break out as follows:

Alabama over Auburn… Clemson over South Carolina… Ole Miss over Mississippi State… Florida over Florida State… Tennessee over Kentucky… LSU over Arkansas… and Georgia Tech over Georgia.

If that’s how things break out, here’s how I see the bowl reacting:

ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE

For this scenario, let’s bunch up as many of the league’s teams as possible.  And this IS possible.  Here goes:

Alabama over Auburn… South Carolina over Clemson… Mississippi State over Ole Miss… Florida over Florida State… Tennessee over Kentucky… Arkansas over LSU… and Georgia over Georgia Tech.

If that’s what takes place this weekend, here’s what I see happening with the bowls:

THE BOWL SELECTION PROCESS

When it comes to bowl selections, two SEC teams will definitely land in BCS bowls. 

The next selection from the conference goes to the Capital One Bowl.

At that point, the Outback and Cotton make their picks.  The Outback chooses from the SEC East and the Cotton from the SEC West.  However, if the Cotton chooses LSU, Arkansas or Ole Miss… the Outback could then select one of the West Division teams that the Cotton passed on.  The Outback rarely gets a shot at a West club and they’re believed to be eyeing both LSU and Ole Miss.

We’re down to the SEC’s sixth slot at this point.  The Chick-fil-A has that selection all to themselves. 

Then come the Liberty and Music City bowls.  Like the Cotton and Outback, they actually choose at the same time.  The bowls, the teams and the conference office work in concert to determine who goes where.

The Independence Bowl selects next… followed by the Papajohns.com Bowl.

Got all that?  Good.  Now buckle your seatbelts ’cause odds are nothing will go as planned this weekend… and the above predictions will be as useless as hen crap on a pump handle (to paraphrase another classic film, “City Slickers.”)

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone.

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