SEC Stats: Ball Security, Defensive Thievery And Turnover Margin
November 18th, 2009 ║ Posted By: John Pennington ║ Permalink ║ Tags: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
There aren’t many things in football that are more important than turnovers. They can stop drives. They can kickstart (or deflate) a team emotionally. And they can provide the turning point in a game.
For that reason, we actually look at turnovers using three different measures.
The first, is the old standard: turnover margin. Below you’ll see each team’s turnover margin as well as their current record.
Turnover Margin
| Rank |
School (Record) |
Takeaways |
Giveaways |
Margin |
| 1 |
Arkansas (6-4) |
23 |
11 |
+12 |
| 2 |
Alabama (10-0) |
20 |
10 |
+10 |
| 3 |
LSU (8-2) |
17 |
8 |
+9 |
| 4 |
Florida (10-0) |
20 |
13 |
+7 |
| 5 |
Tennessee (5-5) |
20 |
16 |
+4 |
| 6 |
Vanderbilt (2-9) |
18 |
15 |
+3 |
| 7 |
Auburn (7-4) |
19 |
17 |
+2 |
| 8 |
Kentucky (6-4) |
16 |
17 |
-1 |
| 9 |
S. Carolina (6-5) |
13 |
17 |
-4 |
| 10 |
Miss. State (4-6) |
19 |
26 |
-7 |
| 11 |
Ole Miss (7-3) |
14 |
22 |
-8 |
| 12 |
Georgia (6-4) |
8 |
22 |
-14 |
Observations:
* The four conference teams who have a +7 turnover margin or better are a combined 34-6.
* It’s amazing that Georgia has a -14 turnover margin yet still holds a 6-4 record.
Next, we wanted to determine which offenses did the best of holding onto the football. Our plan? Divide the total number of offensive snaps by the total number of giveaways. We call this stat Ball Security.
Ball Security
| Rank |
School (Record) |
Off. Plays |
Giveaways |
Plays/Turnover |
| 1 |
LSU (8-2) |
595 |
8 |
74.37 |
| 2 |
Alabama (10-0) |
674 |
10 |
67.40 |
| 3 |
Arkansas (6-4) |
643 |
11 |
58.45 |
| 4 |
Florida (10-0) |
664 |
13 |
51.07 |
| 5 |
Vanderbilt (2-9) |
735 |
15 |
49.00 |
| 6 |
Auburn (7-4) |
783 |
17 |
46.05 |
| 7 |
S. Carolina (6-5) |
731 |
17 |
43.00 |
| 8 |
Tennessee (5-5) |
677 |
16 |
42.31 |
| 9 |
Kentucky (6-4) |
688 |
17 |
40.47 |
| 10 |
Ole Miss (7-3) |
680 |
22 |
30.90 |
| 11 |
Georgia (6-4) |
593 |
22 |
26.95 |
| 12 |
Miss. State (4-6) |
680 |
26 |
26.15 |
Observations:
* The LSU offense hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut this year, but they have taken care of the football. Through 10 games, the Tigers have turned it over just 8 times. That’s a turnover once every 74.37 plays. Gary Crowton can at least be proud of that fact.
* As with Turnover Margin, the top four teams in Ball Security are a combined 34-6.
* How good might Ole Miss and Georgia have been if they hadn’t turned the ball over so much? The Rebels turn it over once every 30.90 plays yet are still 7-3. The Dawgs give it away once every 26.95 plays, but they’re 6-4.
Finally, we wanted to find out which SEC defenses are the best at forcing turnovers. As you might have guessed, we divided the total number of snaps a defense has run by the total number of takeaways they have forced. We call this one Defensive Thievery.
Defensive Thievery
| Rank |
School (Record) |
Def. Plays |
Takeways |
Plays/Turnover |
| 1 |
Florida (10-0) |
593 |
20 |
29.65 |
| 2 |
Arkansas (6-4) |
686 |
23 |
29.82 |
| 3 |
Alabama (10-0) |
618 |
20 |
30.90 |
| 4 |
Tennessee (5-5) |
656 |
20 |
32.80 |
| 5 |
Miss. State (4-6) |
669 |
19 |
35.21 |
| 6 |
Auburn (7-4) |
763 |
19 |
40.15 |
| 7 |
LSU (8-2) |
694 |
17 |
40.82 |
| 8 |
Kentucky (6-4) |
654 |
16 |
40.87 |
| 9 |
Vanderbilt (2-9) |
771 |
18 |
42.83 |
| 10 |
Ole Miss (7-3) |
660 |
14 |
47.14 |
| 11 |
S. Carolina (6-5) |
697 |
13 |
53.61 |
| 12 |
Georgia (6-4) |
654 |
8 |
81.75 |
Observations:
* Florida and Alabama rank in the top four in the conference in each of the three turnover stats that we track. No wonder they’re undefeated and headed for a showdown in Atlanta.
* Arkansas’ defense has given up a lot of yards and a lot of points this year. How bad might thing have been if the Razorbacks hadn’t forced a turnover once every 29.82 plays?
* Ditto for 4-6 Mississippi State and 5-5 Tennessee. Without forced takeaways, you have to think that both teams would be even farther down the SEC’s standings.
* Georgia takes the ball from its opponents just once every 81.75 plays. That’s less than one takeaway per game (with the average snap count being between 60 and 65). In fact, South Carolina ranks 11th in the Defensive Thievery yet they force a turnover in about 30 fewer plays than the Bulldogs.
(Notes — These statistics DO include numbers from all games, not just in-conference battles. If you see a typo, please email me. It’s late and my eyes are going.)
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