The SEC’s Most Likely Losses – Week One

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Let’s assume that I absolutely HAD to pick losses for all the teams around the conference this week.

Which teams are in the most danger (even though I still might pick them as a winner) to be topped?

Here’s my list… from the team in the most danger of losing to the team that’s as safe as a baby in mama’s arms (guess who):


Georgia at Oklahoma State
Why?  The Bulldogs can’t afford to fall behind early with an all new offense.  They also don’t want the Stillwater crowd to get ramped up.  But with a questionable pass rush, I’m afraid both things WILL happen.


South Carolina at NC State
Why?  Because there wasn’t a 34-point difference between the teams last year.  Because we still don’t know how Stephen Garcia will look.  And because I’ve become more and more worried about the Gamecocks the closer we’ve gotten to gameday.


Auburn hosting Louisiana Tech
Why?  Auburn has little depth, a new head coach, and a new version of the spread offense which failed so miserably for them last year.  Also Derek Dooley has a decent team as well as a probable chip on his shoulder from Auburn’s decision to hire Gene Chizik, rather than him.


Alabama to Virginia Tech in Atlanta
Why?  I initially had Alabama losing this game (see my picks from way back in July), but the loss of Tech’s top tailback really handcuffs the Hokies.  If I had to pick against the Tide — and that’s the point of this exercise — I’d do so because I expect this to be a tough, close, low-scoring game.  And Alabama will have an inexperienced quarterback facing that situation for the first time.


Ole Miss at Memphis
Why?  Memphis isn’t expected to be very good, but Ole Miss looks to be overrated.  I didn’t say “bad,” I said overrated.  Are they a Top 10 team?  Seems a reach to me.  Plus, I’ve seen Houston Nutt coach highly-regarded teams before… and he’s better coaching the underdogs.


Kentucky to Miami (Ohio) in Cincinnati
Why?  Because UK’s offense has to prove that it really IS light years better than it was last season (as Rich Brooks has claimed).  And because Miami (Ohio) has a new coach… which means the Cats won’t know what to expect.


Arkansas hosting Missouri State
Why?  The Razorbacks struggled against small-conference competition last year and their defense will probably still be rather lackluster.  There was too much shifting on that side of the ball late in camp for my taste.


Vanderbilt hosting Western Carolina
Why?  Vandy isn’t expected to have the offensive weaponry to blow anybody out.  Funny bounces can turn close games.


Tennessee hosting Western Kentucky
Why?  Did you see Tennessee lose to Wyoming or barely beat Northern Illinois last year?  Do you remember that Alabama lost to Louisiana-Monroe in Nick Saban’s first season?  Or that Bobby Petrino narrowly defeated Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe last season?


Mississippi State hosting Jackson State
Why?  JSU doesn’t have the athletes to hang with an SEC school — even State — but, still, this is the first game Dan Mullen has ever coached… and he claims that he’s made no personnel decisions so far.  (Yeah, right.)


LSU at Washington
Why?  Because SEC teams don’t do well against Pac-10 teams on the Left Coast.  Because Washington has a new coach and the Tigers haven’t known exactly what to prepare for.  And did I mention LSU was having to travel to the other corner of the country?


Florida hosting Charleston Southern
Why?  Because I might marry Jessica Simpson and build a home on the moon someday.  Anything’s possible… however ridiculously unlikely… anything’s possible.

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