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SEC East Headlines – 3/17/10

1.  Mark Richt says Zach Mettenberger needs to regain the trust of his teammates, coaches and fans.

2.  Fellow QB competitor Aaron Murray is experimenting with a glove on his throwing hand this spring.

3.  Here are some notes from yesterday’s practice in Athens yesterday.

4.  UGA held their Pro Day yesterday, too.

5.  ETSU has overcome a lot for the right to face #1 seed Kentucky in the NCAA tournament.

6.  The President has picked UK into his Final Four… along with Kansas, Kansas State and Villanova.

7.  It doesn’t appear that Kentucky fans will take command of New Orleans this week they way they did Nashville last week.  (Probably because many fans are saving their cash for a potential trip to Indianapolis in a couple of weeks.)

8.  Carolina’s quarterbacks have been working on drills to help them avoid sacks this fall.

9.  This writer says Stephen Garcia is becoming more of a leader in Columbia.

10.  USC’s coaches will be keeping an eye on these five offensive players this spring.

11.  Here’s an early look at what the Cocks’ 2010-11 basketball lineup might look like.

12.  Some West Coast Vols are familiar with the players on San Diego State’s team.

13.  Vol guard Scotty Hopson is working on his footwork trying to correct a flaw in his shooting motion.

14.  This writer thinks Tennessee will bounce back in the NCAA tourney.

15.  Vanderbilt could cause problems in the NCAA tournament for teams unfamiliar with their offensive system.

16.  John Jenkins knows the Murray State player whose mother was killed in a car accident on Monday.

17.  While many experts are picking the Racers to upset the ‘Dores, Murray State coach Billy Kennedy says, “They’re the biggest and most physical team we’ve faced.”

18.  As Vandy opens spring practice, Bobby Johnson wants his team to use last year’s terrible record as motivation.

19.  You can get live updates from Florida’s Pro Day right here.

20.  Needless to say, Tim Tebow will be the focus of the media.

21.  Urban Meyer did indeed show up for Pro Day… and Day One of Florida’s spring practice.

 

More Confusion Over Lane Violation Rules

When Monday morning rolled around, I never dreamed that I would type the words “lane violation” so often this week.  But the end of the Kentucky/Mississippi State game on Sunday has folks on both sides of the battle shouting to the heavens.

First came the emails from MSU fans regarding John Wall stepping over the three-point arc on Eric Bledsoe’s “I’m gonna miss this on purpose” free throw attempt.

Then came more MSU emails pointing out that Darnell Dodson was also over the line.  And Eric Bledsoe had jumped the gun and stepped over the free throw line, too.

Yesterday, after posting our follow-up to the story — because Rick Stansbury was talking about it — UK fans got in on the action.  I received four different emails from folks saying that it was a good “no call” because State’s players on the lane itself all jumped into the paint before the ball hit the rim.

And that’s why I think it’s time for some more clarification.  Here’s the deal on lane violations:



1.  Players lined up outside the three-point arc (and the extended lanes) cannot cross inside the three-point area (or the extended lanes) until after a free throw attempt has hit the rim.  Both Wall and Dodson appear to have done just that.  MSU’s Dee Bost might also have jumped the gun on this area.  In Stansbury’s view, the whistle should have been blown when Wall crossed the line, so it would not have mattered what Bost did after that point.

If this violation had been called against either UK player, Mississippi State would have been given the basketball with a two-point lead and 4.9 seconds remaining on the clock. 

2.  The shooter can not step across the foul line until his attempt hits the rim.  Bledsoe did.  In this case, however, he fired up a lollipop of a shot in order to force a big rebound.  He stood his ground for a second before moving forward.  I’m guessing the official watched his feet, saw that he didn’t come immediately across the line, and then eyed the ball… thus missing Bledsoe’s violation.  Still, this WAS a violation of the rule.

3.  Players along the lanes (be they Kentucky or MSU players) can’t go into the paint until the shot has been released from the shooter’s hands.  On replay, it looks like the players for both teams waited until after Bledsoe released his shot before they jumped into the paint.  So there was no violation.  Meaning that this was NOT a good “no call.”

Here’s the video one… more… time.



Hopefully that puts an end to this discussion until the SEC comments on the play… or fines Stansbury for doing so.

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Lunardi Not Real Big On The SEC

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is considered to be THE bracket expert when it comes to the NCAA tournament.  Now, he does do a good job of predicting the 65-team field, but I’ve never gone back to check his accuracy on predicting seeds.  In other words, “field” expert might be a better term than “bracket” expert, but that’s neither here nor there.

For those of you who do view Mr. Lunardi as a tourney guru, he’s now posted his tourney picks for you.  And SEC fans won’t be real happy about them.

In the Midwest, he has Tennessee losing to San Diego State in the first round.

In the West, he has Vanderbilt losing to Murray State in the first round.

Still in the West, he has Florida losing to BYU in the first round.

In the East, he does have Kentucky reaching the Sweet 16… before falling to #4 seed Wisconsin. 

That’s right, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the SEC out of the tourney before the round of eight.  And that includes UK.

Looking around the nation at other experts’ picks, it’s obvious that the SEC is fighting a pretty big perception problem.  Very few analysts expect Florida to win a game.  Several see Vandy as an early upset victim.  And Tennessee is perhaps the trendiest pick in the field to fail in its opener.

There’s only one way to change what folks think about SEC basketball — win. 

But if the SEC’s teams go belly-up as Mr. Lunardi and so many others expect, those of us down south shouldn’t complain about a lack of respect.  The SEC’s schools will have earned it.

 

The Truth About Seeds, Rankings And RPI

It’s Wednesday and I just found yet another note in my email box from a Tennessee fan upset that I defended the NCAA (sort of) in their seeding of the Vols.

Apparently 48 hours isn’t enough time to move on from the fact that Bruce Pearl’s team was seeded sixth instead of fifth.

Well, in response to the cries of “We wuz robbed!” I thought I’d take a look at this year’s NCAA tournament seeds and see if Tennessee truly was singled out for a spanking.

A quick comparison of the selection committee’s seeds to the national rankings and RPI rankings shows that the “eyeball test” of human voters is a more accurate predictor of seeding.

Below you’ll see the Top 25 going into Sunday’s selection process.  At right, you’ll see three columns.  The first shows where each team should have been seeded IF seeding were based strictly on national rank.  The second shows their actual seed.  The third shows how much up or down they moved.

Top 25 Rank
School
“Expected” Seed
Actual Seed
Difference
1
Kansas
1
1
 
2
Kentucky
1
1
 
3
Duke
1
1
 
4
Syracuse
1
1
 
5
Ohio State
2
2
 
6
West Virginia
2
2
 
7
Kansas State
2
2
 
8
New Mexico
2
3
Down 1
9
Villanova
3
2
Up 1
10
Purdue
3
4
Down 1
11
Butler
3
5
Down 2
12
Temple
3
5
Down 2
13
Michigan State
4
5
Down 1
14
Georgetown
4
3
Up 1
15
Tennessee
4
6
Down 2
16
Wisconsin
4
4

17
BYU
5
7
Down 2
18
Pittsburgh
5
3
Up 2
19
Baylor
5
3
Up 2
20
Maryland
5
4
Up 1
21
Vanderbilt
6
4
Up 2
22
Gonzaga
6
8
Down 2
23
Texas A&M
6
5
Up 1
24
Richmond
6
7
Down 1
25
Xavier
7
6
Up 1



So what do we see?  First, it’s pretty obvious that the committee gave extra credit to teams from the Big East and Big 12, the perceived two best conferences all season.  Villanova, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Baylor and Texas A&M were all seeded a bit higher than their national ranking would have indicated.

We also see that no team fell or rose more than a couple of spots from where they were expected to land.  Overall, eight teams moved up and nine teams moved down.

Tennessee dropped two slots along with Butler (who has been a fixture in the Top 12 all year), Temple, BYU and Gonzaga.  Hard to say, then, that UT was singled out.

One of the biggest risers was Vanderbilt.  The Commodores — ranked 21st — would have been expected to be a #6 seed, but instead they received a #4 seed.  That might give some Vol fans something to complain about, but Vanderbilt beat Tennessee handily in both of their contests this year, finished ahead of them in the SEC standings and went 4-2 against Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida.  As Pearl himself noted, the Vols went just 2-5 against Kentucky, Vandy and the Gators.



Now, on to the RPI comparison…

RPI Rank
School
“Expected” Seed
Actual Seed
Difference
1
Kansas
1
1
 
2
Kentucky
1
1
 
3
Duke
1
1
 
4
West Virginia
1
2
Down 1
5
Syracuse
2
1
Up 1
6
Kansas State
2
2
 
7
Georgetown
2
3
Down 1
8
Temple
2
5
Down 3
9
Baylor
3
3
 
10
New Mexico
3
3
 
11
Villanova
3
2
Up 1
12
Butler
3
5
Up 2
13
Texas A&M
4
5
Down 1
14
Tennessee
4
6
Down 2
15
Pittsburgh
4
3
Up 1
16
Purdue
4
4
 
17 Northern Iowa
5
9
Down 4
18
San Diego State
5
11
Down 6
19
Xavier
5
6
Down 1
20
California
5
8
Down 3
21
Wisconsin
6
4
Up 2
22
Ohio State
6
2
Up 4
23
BYU
6
7
Down 1
24
Maryland
6
4
Up 2
25
Richmond
7
7
 



Clearly, RPI is used only as a “guide,” just as various committee members say each year.  There was much more variation in this chart than in our first one.  Temple, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, California and Ohio State all moved up or down by three or more slots.

Again we see that Tennessee moved down two lines while Vandy climbed two.

As for the school that got “most hosed” in both charts, that would be Temple.

But knowing that this is a fluid process that seems to change a bit from year to year, it’s hard for me to say, “Yes, this team’s fans should be crying.”  We’re talking about a seed line or two… not a tourney snub.

If the teams who feel snubbed are upset, they’ll have every opportunity to prove the experts wrong starting tomorrow.  And if Tennessee isn’t good enough to get by San Diego State, how much farther would they have gone as a #4 or a #5?

And for the record, I’d have had Kentucky a #1, Vandy a #4 and Tennessee a #5.  But that’s just me.  And judging from my inbox, many of you disagree.

 

Top O’ The Mornin’ To Ya

Happy St. Patrick’s Day from Mr. SEC.com!

Nothing like Irish Serbs to kick off your morning.  Enjoy this — and an early morning black and tan — as we put together your morning news.



And as our photo clearly shows… be smart today and don’t have TOO many black and tans.

 

Calipari Says Wall Wants To Come Back

All of you thinking that Kentucky’s roster will undergo a seismic shift this offseason might want to think again.  According to John Calipari, at least.

Appearing on The Dan Patrick Show yesterday, Calipari said that John Wall “wants to stay.  We’ll have to talk about it afterward.”

Is that simply a recruiting ploy?  “Lexington is so great, no one wants to leave!”

Calipari could be making that comment even though he knows full well that Wall will jet for the NBA — and MILLIONS of dollars — when push comes to shove.

That comment shines a positive light on his program and it makes Wall even more popular amongst Wildcat fans.  If that’s possible.

Or perhaps Wall really does want to stay.  In which case Calipari should tell him what he risks by not leaving early and taking the cash.  One knee injury and everything could go poof for the one of the coolest young talents I’ve ever seen.

Regardless of what Calipari is saying now or what Wall might say in the future, it’s hard to believe that the young man won’t leave early for the money of the pros.

But you can bet there are a lot of Cat fans today hoping and praying that rumors of an NBA lockout come to fruition.  In that case, Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson, the Professor, Mary Ann and the rest might all be back for another season of SEC dominance.

 

SEC East Headlines – 3/16/10

1.  Billy Donovan enjoyed seeing his team celebrate an NCAA tourney berth again.

2.  Billy D compares BYU point guard Jimmer Fredette to John Wall and Devan Downey.

3.  There are five big storylines for the Gators’ spring practice this year.

4.  Georgia’s Trey Thompkins made the AP’s first-team All-SEC squad.

5.  UGA AD Damon Evans says it’s time for the Bulldogs to schedule a season-opener in the Georgia Dome.

6.  This writer/Dawg fan says a Clemson-Georgia game would be perfect for the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic.

7.  It’s Pro Day in Athens today.

8.  Bruce Pearl says San Diego State is a patient team that takes after its coach, Steve Fisher.

9.  A lot of national analysts expect Tennessee to get bounced by the Aztecs in Round One.

10.  Derek Dooley apparently didn’t realize that he was tossing some former Vols when he cleared UT’s indoor practice facility of visitors.

11.  UT’s Wayne Chism and Vandy’s Jermaine Beal were named to the AP’s All-SEC team.

12.  Vandy’s players — booted as a #4 seed in 2008 — know better than to underestimate #13 seed Murray State on Thursday.

13.  One Murray State player will be with his team despite the death of his mother in a car accident yesterday.

14.  The SEC tournament brought in 12 million bucks to Nashville last week.

15.  John Calipari gave his players the day off yesterday to help combat fatigue.

16.  Are Kentucky’s fantastic freshmen better than Michigan’s Fab Five?  We’re about to find out.

17.  No team in the NCAA tournament field is more inexperienced than UK.  (But inexperience hasn’t hurt the Cats yet, has it?)

18.  There’ll be no crying in Lexington this week — the AP honored John Wall as the SEC’s Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson made the All-SEC team, and John Calipari was named Coach of the Year.

19.  Here are five questions facing South Carolina’s basketball team in the year ahead.

20.  Devan Downey was a unanimous pick for the AP’s All-SEC team.

21.  Backup quarterback Aramis Hillary — arrested on alcohol-related charges last week – has requested a jury trial.

22.  The spotlight will shine on five defensive players during spring practice in Columbia.

 

Three Potential Violations On Kentucky Put-Back?

Sorry, Kentucky fans.  It doesn’t look like this one’s going away.

Yesterday, we told you that a mini-furor had arisen regarding Eric Bledsoe’s missed free throw at the end of regulation in the SEC tournament finals… the miss that led to DeMarcus Cousins’ eventual game-tying lay-up.

John Wall was shown in replays to have crossed inside the three-point arc before Bledsoe’s shot hit the rim.  That’s a type of lane violation, though most folks I’ve talked to have never seen that particular part of the rule called.



But a check of the videotape shows THREE potential violations on the play:

1)  Bledsoe stepped over the free throw line before his shot hit the rim — lane violation

2)  Wall stepped inside the three-point arc before Bledsoe’s shot hit the rim — lane violation

3)  Darnell Dodson also stepped inside the three-point arc before Bledsoe’s shot hit the rim — lane violation



Even if you — like me — give the refs a pass on the three-point arc stuff, that still leaves a rather obvious violation by the shooter himself.

During a press conference yesterday, Rick Stansbury made it clear that he’s not happy about that.  “It’s a very obvious lane violation.  Both guys in that lane line up outside the 3-point line.” 

Leery of a potential fine from the league, Stansbury added, “I’m not talking about officiating, I’m talking about the play.”

Oh.

Stansbury did some research on the rule and after doing so, felt even more convinced that his team was jobbed.

“I’m just amazed in that situation, game on the line, you know he’s going to miss the free throw (intentionally), two officials watching it — we’re not talking about a foot.  We’re talking about eight feet.”

Kyle Veazey of The Jackson Clarion-Ledger reports that the rule appears to be pretty clear: a teammate of the free throw shooter can’t enter the arc until the shot hits the rim.  The shooter has to wait for the ball to hit the rim, too.

According to Stansbury, the fact that State’s Dee Bost also entered inside the three-point arc would make no difference.  In his view, the offensive player entered first, so the play should have been blown dead.

Stansbury said that his anger was limited to what happened on Sunday and not tied to State’s first game with Kentucky.  You might remember that MSU saw 10 calls go against them in the final eight minutes of their loss to the Wildcats in Starkville.  UK had no calls go against them in those closing minutes.  Cups and water bottles were tossed by fans, etc, etc.

“The first game, I put behind me.  I’m not a guy who cries over spilled milk very often.  This was a hard pill to swallow because this was not a judgement call.”



Personally, I wonder if the three-point arc part of the lane violation rule will now get more attention from referees and the media.  Most folks hadn’t heard of this issue prior to Sunday.  Even Stansbury had to do a little research on the subject.

In 2001, something called a “tuck rule” helped launch the New England Patriots to a Super Bowl title.  At the time, it was thought to be a tidbit in the rule book that would surely be tossed out after the season.  Well, it wasn’t thrown out.  And now you see a “tuck rule” call in a dozen football games each year.

The same could happen in this situation.

But dropping the Dodson/Wall part of the equation, the referees did clearly miss Bledsoe stepping over the line.  In that situation, I think it’s probably natural that their eyes went from his feet to the ball.  And he did stay in his stance for split-second or two before charging forward.

Of course, that won’t change the perception that SEC officials looked the other way. 

Sorry Cat fans.  I’m not a conspiracy guy, but the refs blew this one.  That means the folks in the tin foil hats now have some ammunition in their ray guns.

 

Getting The Calls: An SEC Statistical Breakdown

In football, Alabama and Florida supposedly got all the calls this past fall.

In basketball, it’s Kentucky that’s been “taken care of.”

At least that’s the way many SEC fans saw things this year at least.

I don’t know who thought Kentucky was getting all the calls when Billy Gillispie was missing the NCAA tournament last year.

And I don’t remember anyone talking about Bama getting help from officials during Nick Saban’s first 7-6 season in Tuscaloosa.

But, hey, the perception is that good teams really aren’t that good… they’re just being aided by the refs.  Or so a lot of people seem to think.

So I’ve gone back through every Southeastern Conference basketball game this season (that’s 96 regular season games) and tallied up all of the fouls called in each game.  Below you’ll see which teams were whistled for the most fouls, which teams saw their opponents most often called for fouls, and which teams got the biggest boost in foul differential per game.

Keep in mind, this is purely a numbers exercise.  There’s no way to know how numbers are skewed by the fact that good teams usually lead and therefore their opponents are forced to foul more at the ends of games.

In other words, are fouls called because a team is good or is a team good because fouls are called?  Depending on your belief in conspiracy theories, that can go either way.

Also, it would stand to reason that more talented teams would force their opponents to foul more in an attempt to even the playing field.  In other words, not everyone has a guard as fast as John Wall, so it would figure that Wall might draw more slaps on the arms as he blows down the lane.

In addition, more physical teams — like Vanderbilt — probably get a foul advantage because other teams have to use multiple players to bang around inside with them.

Personally, I’m not a believer in conspiracy theories.  I believe home teams get more calls because officials get caught up in crowd noise just as players do (and we’ll show you those numbers, too).  I believe more talented teams get “benefit of the doubt” calls.  And I believe teams that have a reputation for being physical get more calls in their favor as well.

But I don’t believe officials take care of certain teams in order to protect their rankings, seedings, etc.  You might, but I don’t.

All that said, here are the numbers:

MOST FOULS CALLED AGAINST OPPONENT PER GAME

School Fouls Against Opp. Per Game SEC Record
Vanderbilt 22.87 12-4
Kentucky 20.75 14-2
Arkansas 19.56 7-9
Tennessee 17.81 11-5
Auburn 17.62 6-10
Florida 17.00 9-7
Mississippi State 17.00 9-7
Ole Miss 16.50 9-7
Georgia 16.06 5-11
Alabama 15.87 6-10
LSU 15.68 2-14
South Carolina 15.00 6-10

It seems that Auburn and Arkansas tend to spoil the conspiracy theory on this one.

FEWEST FOULS CALLED AGAINST PER GAME

School Fouls Called Against Per Game SEC Record
Florida 14.06 9-7
Mississippi State 15.06 9-7
Georgia 16.37 5-11
LSU 17.00 2-14
Kentucky 17.12 14-2
South Carolina 18.00 6-10
Alabama 18.18 6-10
Arkansas 18.50 7-9
Tennessee 18.87 11-5
Ole Miss 18.93 9-7
Auburn 19.75 6-10
Vanderbilt 19.87 12-4

Again, I’m not seeing any evidence of conspiracies here.  Vanderbilt saw it’s opponents whistled for more fouls than any other school.  Yet the Commodores also led the league in the number of fouls that were called against them.  That seems to suggest that style of play is a pretty big factor.

As for Kentucky, the Wildcats were actually whistled for more fouls than Florida, Mississippi State, Georgia and LSU.  That would be 2-14 LSU, by the way.

FOUL DIFFERENTIAL PER GAME

School Differential in Fouls Called Per Game SEC Record
Kentucky 3.63 14-2
Vanderbilt 3.00 12-4
Florida 2.94 9-7
Mississippi State 1.94 9-7
Arkansas 1.06 7-9
Georgia -0.31 5-11
Tennessee -1.06 11-5
LSU -1.32 2-14
Auburn -2.13 6-10
Alabama -2.31 6-10
Ole Miss -2.43 9-7
South Carolina -3.00 6-10

Finally.  Something for the folks in the tin foil hats.

No school sees a bigger difference between their own number of fouls and their opponents’ fouls than Kentucky.  Of course, the SEC refs are having to be awfully sneaky about this if it’s planned out… because UK doesn’t lead either of the two individual categories (above) that are used to determine this number.

But what about homecourt advantage?  Is it real?

Oh, yes.  There’s a reason 76% of BCS league games have been won by the home team in recent years.  A loud crowd influences players AND officials.

All 12 teams in the SEC this past year saw more fouls called against their opponents at home than on the road.  All 12.

And all 12 SEC teams saw fewer fouls called on themselves when playing at home, too.  Again, all 12.

But of all the official-affecting home gyms in the SEC, here are the ones that provide the best advantage for their occupants:

FOUL DIFFERENTIAL AT HOME

School Differential in Fouls Called Per Game Home Record
Florida 6.87 6-2
Kentucky 5.78 8-0
Vanderbilt 5.00 6-2
Arkansas 4.00 5-3
Georgia 3.12 5-3
Mississippi State 2.88 6-2
Auburn 1.88 5-3
Tennessee 0.88 7-1
LSU 0.87 2-6
Alabama 0.37 4-4
Ole Miss -0.38 4-4
South Carolina -1.87 4-4

As you can see, only two SEC teams (Ole Miss and South Carolina) averaged more fouls called against them than their opponents at home.  Every other team had a positive foul differential in their own gym.

Of all the gyms in the SEC in 2010, the O’Connell Center in Gainesville was the most inhospitable to visitors looking to get a call or two.

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SEC East Headlines – 3/15/10

1.  It’s been a while, but Florida is going dancing again.

2.  With a #10 seed in the tourney, the Gators apparently weren’t even on the bubble.

3.  Chandler Parsons said “it was a stressful 48 hours” waiting to learn their NCAA fate.

4.  Florida’s upgrade in non-conference scheduling clearly helped UF land a bid.

5.  Still, this writer says the Gators are stumbling into the tourney.

6.  On the football front, meet the men expected to be the Gators’ new leaders in 2010.

7.  Jimmy Johnson believes drafting Tim Tebow high would be a risky move.

8.  Despite a losing record, Mark Fox’s first season at Georgia got the attention of Dawg fans.

9.  Turns out yesterday’s SEC tournament championship meant plenty to Kentucky’s players after all.

10.  After the win over Mississippi State, DeMarcus Cousins said the Bulldogs deserved to be in the NCAA tourney “hands down, no questions asked.”

11.  No surprise here, this Lexington writer believes UK’s talent will lead to a national title.

12.  That same writer says the Cats will face some tough tests in the NCAA tourney.

13.  John Calipari — bless his heart — isn’t complaining about UK’s bracket draw.

14.  UK’s coach also said that his team has already played every style of basketball that might be thrown at them in the tourney.

15.  Are the Wildcats tourney ready?

16.  Bruce Pearl seemed to grasp why his team might have gotten a #6 seed, but his players didn’t.

17.  The Vols — including Pearl — were really ticked that CBS’ Seth Davis said they’d be upset by San Diego State in Round One.

18.  Scotty Hopson — who was 6 of 29 shooting in the SEC tournament — said, “Seth Davis has me a little upset right now.  I think he just gave us enough attitude to go out there and take this whole tourney.”

19.  Did UT deserve a better seed?  This writer says yes and no.

20.  While the Vols were stunned by a #6 seed, Vanderbilt was happy to land a #4.

21.  Kevin Stallings finds it “ironic” that Vandy will have to travel “2,500 or 3,000 miles” to play nearby Murray State.

 

Updated “Everyone Cries” Post

Quick note… we’ve added Ole Miss and Mississippi State to our “Who’s got a right to cry?” post from earlier today.

As you’ll find, I don’t think any of the SEC teams have many reasons to be whining today. 

Scroll down or click here to see the updated post.

 

Four SEC Teams Get Bids, Two Don’t, Everyone Cries

Congratulations to Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Florida for making this year’s NCAA tournament. 

And condolences to Ole Miss and Mississippi State for missing out.

Now that the brackets have been announced, a quick check of the messageboards for each school reveals a lot of upset feelings, a lot of complaints about seeding, respect, travel, etc. 

Johnny Cash summed up the mood nicely…




So which schools/teams/fans really do have reason to cry?  We’ll tell you below:



Kentucky — RPI of 2, SOS of 31, 5-1 vs RPI Top 50
#1 seed
East Regional vs #16 ETSU
Thursday at 7:15pm ET in New Orleans

The Cats got their #1 seed but they didn’t get the #1 overall.  UK fans shouldn’t cry too much about that one.  Kansas was 12-2 against Top 50 RPI teams while Kentucky was just 5-1.

But the selection committee didn’t do the Wildcats any favors.  In the second round, they will face the winner of Texas and Wake Forest.  Those are two power programs from power conferences who won’t be intimidated to stand on the same court with the Wildcats.  They’ve been on the big stage before.  (Kansas’ 8-9 teams are UNLV and Northern Iowa, for comparison.)

Path to the Final Four (by highest seed):
16  ETSU  (121)
8  Texas  (29)
4  Wisconsin  (21)
2  West Virginia  (4)

That’s not a real easy path to Indianapolis.  You could argue pretty easily that West Virginia is the best of the #2 seeds.

VERDICT:  No crying.  You can’t cry when you get a #1 seed.  You just can’t.



Vanderbilt — RPI of 26, SOS of 25, 4-2 vs RPI Top 50
#4 seed
West Regional vs #13 Murray State
Thursday at 2:30pm ET in San Jose

Vanderbilt fans won’t be happy with being shipped so far away from Nashville.  Some are saying that that amounts to a punishment for a team that was clearly the second-strongest SEC squad all year long.  But those ‘Dore fans don’t have much of an argument to make.

The other #4 seeds were shipped off as well — Purdue to Spokane, Wisconsin to Jacksonville, and Maryland to Spokane.

Vandy’s first-round game is a good one.  Murray State’s RPI is #57, but the Racers played only one Top 50 club all year (losing to Cal in their season opener).  Of the #13 seeds, Wofford (which beat Georgia and South Carolina) and Houston would have both been more dangerous (on paper) than Murray State.  And Vandy fans would have wanted no part of another first-round battle with Siena, either.  The Saints toppled Vandy in the 2008 first round.

Path to the Final Four (by highest seed):
13  Murray State (57)
5  Butler (12)
1  Syracuse (5)
2  Kansas State (6)

Overall, that’s a mighty steep hill to climb for the Commodores.  A second-round game with Butler could be one of the best games in the tourney.  Two smart, patient, well-coached teams.  It’ll be a throwback to 1955.

VERDICT:  Maybe some grumbling about the path, but no real reason to cry.  If VU wanted a better seed, they shouldn’t have dropped two of their last three games.



Tennessee — RPI of 14, SOS of 19, 2-5 vs RPI Top 50
#6 seed
Midwest Regional vs #11 San Diego State
Friday at 9:45pm ET in Providence

Oh, boy.  The weeping/anger in East Tennessee is pretty loud this morning.  After becoming the first team since 2002 to knock off a #1 and a #2 in the same season, Vol fans expected no worse than a five seed.  Most projections listed UT as a #4 seed prior to the selection show.

Instead, they get a long trip.  A late game.  And a matchup with one of the tournament’s true sleeper teams.  In fact, San Diego State plays the deliberate, patient (ie: they won’t turn the ball over again and again) ball that has given UT trouble all season.

The SEC was not viewed as a power conference, and UT’s record against the other SEC teams to make the field (2-5) had to have worked against them.

Path to the Final Four (by highest seed):
#11  San Diego State (18)
#3  Georgetown (7)
#2  Ohio State (22)
#1  Kansas (1)

Baaaa-rutal.  That’s a real murderer’s row for the Vols.  Especially considering how limited UT is offensively.  Without turnovers and transition baskets, the Vols can’t seem to score.  For proof of that, just consider Tennessee’s 21-point first half against LSU and their 19-point first half against Kentucky in the SEC tourney.  It looks like the committee did.

VERDICT:  UT’s path is tough, but fellow #6 seed Notre Dame got a rough one, too.  No room for crying.  Aside from the Kansas and Kentucky wins, Tennessee doesn’t have a whole lot to hang its hat on.



Florida — RPI of 56, SOS of 36, 3-8 vs RPI Top 50
#10 seed
West Regional vs #7 BYU
Thursday at 12:20pm ET in Oklahoma City

I’m shocked that the Gators got in in the first place.  They were just 3-8 against top 50 opponents, they had two losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100, and they finished the season by losing four of their last five games.  Rhode Island, Memphis, Virginia Tech and Seton Hall all have to be wondering about this one.

The first-round matchup with BYU isn’t a bad one, either.  The Cougars were just 4-5 vs Top 50 squads.  However, Brigham Young does have the highest RPI (23) of all the #7 seeds.

Path to the Final Four (by highest seed):
7  BYU (23)
2  Kansas State (6)
3  Pittsburgh (15)
1  Syracuse (5)

The Gators got one of the toughest paths for a #10 seed, but seeing as how they barely got in, there’s no room for whining.  With their resume, UF could have easily landed an #11 or #12 seed.  Or not gotten in at all.

VERDICT:  Are you kidding me?  Count your blessings, Gator fans.  The NCAA drought is over.  Just enjoy being back in the Big Dance.  No tears allowed.



Mississippi State — RPI of 54, SOS of 74, 2-5 vs RPI Top 50
No NCAA bad… NIT bid instead

The Bulldogs showed a lot of heart in Nashville.  They came within a tick of the clock — and a possible John Wall lane violation — of earning a bid via the conference tourney for the second consecutive year.

(By the way, at tournament time, I’ll take Rick Stansbury over every other SEC coach.  The guy knows how to prepare his team for tournaments.)

But for those who feel bad for the Dogs, remember, this is a team that played a soft non-conference schedule, blew two chances late in the season to lock up an NCAA bid (at Auburn and at home against Tennessee), and it’s also a squad that dropped five games to teams ranked outside the RPI Top 100.

VERDICT:  No crying, State fans.  Your team had its chances long before the closing seconds of the SEC tournament.  They just couldn’t capitalize.



Ole Miss — RPI of 61, SOS of 71, 2-6 vs RPI Top 50
No NCAA bid… NIT bid instead

The Rebels were done-in by two things: an injury to Reggie Buckner midway through the SEC season and two costly losses to Mississippi State.

UM’s fortunes began to fade without Buckner in the middle and they only started to rise again once he returned to 100% late in the year.  But the two losses to State that were the nails in the coffin.  Had the Rebels won one of those games, their resume would have looked better than MSU’s (pre-conference tourney).  Had they swept State, the Rebs might be dancing today.

VERDICT:  The only thing UM fans should be crying about is a season of missed opportunities.  The Rebels didn’t earn a bid this year.

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Lane Violation Not Called Before UK Tip-In

Let the conspiracy theories begin.

In case you missed it, ESPN analyst Doug Gottlieb was the first person to point out a missed call on THE play at the end of regulation in yesterday’s SEC tournament championship game.

With Eric Bledsoe at the line and 4.9 seconds on the clock, Kentucky trailed Mississippi State 64-62.  Watch the video and you’ll see that when Bledsoe releases his shot, John Wall immediately starts forward and crosses the three-point line before the foul shot hits the rim.  By rule — though I’ve never seen it called — that’s illegal. 

Not only have I never seen that type of lane violation called — which actually isn’t a lane violation as much as a three-point arc violation — I didn’t know it was a rule.

The refs didn’t call it, the foul shot clanged out and 4.8 seconds later DeMarcus Cousins hit the game-tying lay-up.




As you might imagine, discussion of this play has lit up the MSU and Kentucky messageboards.  And it’s also generating posts at websites that suggest the fix was in.

You can see here the typical response from Wildcat fans: “Screw Gottlieb (for telling the truth)” and “Boo-hoo, they didn’t call it so it didn’t happen.”

Now, reverse things.  If MSU had had someone cross the three-point line before the ball hit the rim, it would be Bulldog fans saying so what and UK fans crying into their John Calipari Maker’s Mark.

At any rate, I don’t buy conspiracy theories, but the video shows what the video shows.  Question is, when’s the last time to you saw this rule enforced? 

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SEC notebook: Kentucky coach feels like baby-sitter

When Kentucky’s freshman act like, well, freshmen, John Calipari is usually willing to cut them some slack.
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SEC Notebook: UK fans descend as ticket costs rise

NASHVILLE — Having Kentucky, Tennessee and hometown team Vanderbilt among the SEC tournament’s four semifinal teams created the perfect storm on the ticket-buying market. The face value for Saturday’s two-game session was $55. Scalpers on the street said they are selling the ticket for $450-$650.
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Bledsoe: “If I make 3’s, nobody can touch us”

By LARRY VAUGHT
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — When opponents focus on stopping DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson inside, Eric Bledsoe knows his job is simple — make 3-point shots.
He did here Saturday, too, as he went 5-for-8 from 3-point range and had 17 points in a 74-45 victory over Tennessee that puts Kentucky into Sunday’s Southeastern Conference [...]
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Four ways Mississippi State can take the SEC title from Kentucky

Sean Deveney

NASHVILLE—Mississippi State assistant coach Robert Kirby was sitting three rows from the floor here at Bridgestone Arena with just under seven minutes to play when Kentucky’s Darnell Dodson knocked down an open 3-pointer on a pass from DeMarcus Cousins. It was Dodson’s second 3-pointer in a span of a minute, putting the Wildcats up by 15 and helping send Kentucky to a 74-45 blowout win over Tennessee, putting UK into the SEC championship game.

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A Big Blue beatdown: Vols lose composure, shoot poorly to end SEC tournament run

NASHVILLE – Tennessee suffered a Music City Meltdown on Saturday afternoon in Bridgestone Arena.
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Kentucky fans overrun Nashville for SEC tournament

With the SEC Tournament in town, Kentucky fans have turned out en masse and turned downtown Nashville into their own cheering section.
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Calipari: Cats need more intensity

By TERESA M. WALKER
AP Sports Writer
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — John Calipari only hopes his young Kentucky Wildcats’ first postseason game delivered the message he’s been trying to send — tournament time requires more intensity and desire than the regular season.
John Wall had 23 points, including seven straight in the second half to give the Wildcats [...]
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MrSEC.com’s Predictions For Round Two

Yesterday we posted our picks for the entire SEC tournament… and thanks to a blistering 4-for-4 start, we can simply link you to that post for our second round picks (and beyond).

Of course, the fact that we went 4-0 yesterday almost guarantees that we’ll plummet to 0-4 today. 

Nevertheless, for our take on Kentucky/Alabama, Ole Miss/Tennessee, Mississippi State/Florida and Vanderbilt/Georgia, just click right here.

 

SEC East Headlines – 3/12/10

1.  I keep getting emails from Florida folks telling me that I blew it when I said Tim Tebow didn’t do too well on his Wonderlic test.  Well, the national headline at every other site — including this one in The Gainesville Sun — is: “Tebow posts below average Wonderlic score.”  Why care?  It’s not an IQ test and it has very little to do with where QBs have been drafted or how they’ve played in the NFL.

2.  Tailback Boo Malcome will be wearing Knowshon Moreno’s old #24 when he suits up for Georgia.

3.  Matt Lentz will move from safety to linebacker and Moncell Allen will be spending more time at fullback for Kentucky this fall.

4.  Tennessee’s Brian Williams came back from his suspension “a guy more humble,” according to teammate Bobby Maze.  Williams had 14 rebounds for the Vols yesterday.

5.  There are more details coming out regarding the arrest of South Carolina backup quarterback Aramis Hillary.

6.  It was a stunning collapse as Carolina blew an 18-point lead to Alabama yesterday.

7.  Bradis Raley-Ross summed up the game succinctly, “It sucks to end it this way.”

8.  Devan Downey doesn’t want his college career to be over.

9.  It sounds like Downey would like for Darrin Horn to change his mind about not playing in the CIT or CBI.

10.  This writer says the opening round of the SEC tournament was painful to watch.

11.  The legacy of Kentucky’s stellar freshmen will be written almost entirely in the NCAA tournament.  Seems unfair, but it’s probably true.

12.  Did you know that SEC fans are eating too many fatty foods at the tournament?  And I thought the Bridgestone Arena would be serving tofu.

 

Tourney Game One – Kentucky Vs Alabama

1.  To even reach today’s second round, Alabama had to use an 18-point comeback to knock off South Carolina 68-63.

2.  Bama’s Mikhail Torrance says he won’t be tired when the Tide faces Kentucky today.  “I’m a senior.  I’ve been waiting for this tournament my whole life.”

3.  John Calipari showed his team tape of the first five minutes of their 11-point win over Alabama in February… to prove that Bama “played harder and played more inspired that we did.”

4.  Calipari says there should be “no coolness” in his team’s attitude today.

5.  Coach Cal was asked about the “snub” he received when he wasn’t voted Coach of the Year in the SEC.  “Oh, I was so mad… wait til I see those guys,” he said sarcastically.  (Three candidates all had good resumes, no one was snubbed.)

6.  Want to know how many UK fans are in Nashville.  During yesterday’s Alabama-Carolina game, the biggest cheers came when the Wildcat players were shown on the jumbotron.

7.  Calipari didn’t watch the Crimson Tide’s win yesterday.

 

NCAA Tourney Projections For The SEC

Wanted to update you on a few NCAA tournament projections from some of the media big boys today.  Here’s what’s out there:



The Sporting News5 teams in

Kentucky:  #1 seed

Tennessee:  #5 seed

Vanderbilt:  #5 seed

Florida:  #10 seed

Ole Miss:  #11 seed



ESPN5 teams in

Joe Lunardi still says that only three SEC teams are “locks” to make the tournament.  After yesterday’s action, Florida and Ole Miss are “in” from his bubble watch area.  Mississippi State is not.

In his opinion, those three SEC schools are competing with Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, San Diego State, Illinois, Washington, Arizona State, Memphis, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Dayton and Minnesota for at-large bids. 



Bracketography.com5 teams in

Kentucky:  #1 seed in East (Syracuse) Region vs play-in game winner

Vanderbilt:  #4 seed in South (Houston) Region vs #13 Akron

Tennessee:  #5 seed in West (Salt Lake City) Region vs #12 Siena

Florida:  #10 seed in East (Syracuse) Region vs #7 Notre Dame

Ole Miss:  #12 seed in Midwest (St. Louis) Region vs #5 Maryland



CBS Sports5 teams in

Kentucky:  #1 seed in East (Syracuse) Region vs play-in game winner

Tennessee:  #5 seed in Midwest (St. Louis) Region vs #12 Utah State

Vanderbilt:  #5 seed in South (Houston) Region vs #12 California

Florida:  #10 seed in West (Salt Lake City) Region vs #7 Clemson

Ole Miss:  #11 seed in East (Syracuse) Region vs #6 Xavier



Keep in mind that some of these links will be updated throughout the day… so in a few hours, my comments may no longer hold true.

Also, some of the above links may require free or paid registration.

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SEC Working On Changes To League Football Schedule

If you’re an SEC fan and you’ve already bought tickets (and/or hotels, flights, etc) to see your favorite team play a conference football game this season… you might want to pay attention to this:

The SEC still hasn’t officially released the league’s in-conference schedule (even though most schools have listed their tentative slates) because it is working to give Alabama some relief from a schedule quirk.

In the initial layout, the Tide was scheduled to face six teams coming off byes during their eight-game league schedule.  That is a bit excessive.  From time to time teams have faced multiple teams coming off bye weeks, but I can’t remember a school having six such games.

“This is something that’s important to the entire league,” said SEC associate commissioner Charles Bloom.  “Because nobody wants to be in that same position a year or two from now.  So we’re looking at a way to balance it out this year and for years to come.  The different is that it might be a little tweak this year with more widespread changes coming in future years.”

Alabama is currently scheduled to face South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn after those teams’ open dates.

I know that this will set off screams of favoritism and cheating, but it’s a senseable move by the conference.  The trick will be to see how many games are moved to accommodate Alabama.  Because that will be used as a guideline — by fans at least — when eyeing future schedules.