The SEC ranks fourth among conferences in most of the RPI rankings and computer ratings.  That’s not bad, but it’s not great, either.

Before the season began, league coaches predicted a big bounceback from last year’s disappointing season.  Some expected six or seven SEC squads to reach the NCAA tournament.  How’s that looking now?

Well, if you simply went by the latest RPI rankings, just five SEC teams would rank among the nation’s 65 best teams — Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Florida.  Of course, RPI ratings are just part of the overall resume the NCAA selection committee takes into account when breaking down a school.

Below are some notes on all 12 schools here at the midpoint of the SEC season… including their NCAA tournament outlooks:



1.  Kentucky
Record:  22-1, 7-1 in conference
RPI:  6
SOS:  52
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  4-0 with wins over Louisville (42), Florida (48), Vanderbilt (19), Ole Miss (36)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  4-1
Recent Stretch:  Won 3 in a row
Outlook:  If they keep things up, UK will be in the running for a #1 seed


2.  Tennessee
Record:  18-4, 6-2 in conference
RPI:  18
SOS:  34
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  4-2 with wins over Charlotte (46), Kansas (1), Ole Miss (36), Florida (48)… losses to Purdue (11), Vanderbilt (19)
Remaining Schedule:  3 home, 5 road
Record In True Road Games:  3-2
Recent Stretch:  Won 3 in a row
Outlook:  Very good, but tonight’s game with Vanderbilt looms large as both schools have similar resumes right now


3.  Vanderbilt
Record:  16-5, 6-2 in conference
RPI:  19
SOS:  23
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  4-1 with wins over St. Mary’s (45), Missouri (47), Florida (48), Tennessee (18)… loss to Kentucky (6)
Remaining Schedule:  5 home, 3 road
Record In True Road Games:  4-3
Recent Stretch:  Lost 2 out of 3
Outlook:  Very good, but they need tonight’s game with Tennessee for the same reason UT does


4.  Ole Miss
Record:  17-6, 5-4 in conference
RPI:  36
SOS:  50
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  1-4 with win over Kansas State (7)… losses to Villanova (5), West Virginia (4), Tennessee (18), Kentucky (6)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 3 road
Record In True Road Games:  4-3
Recent Stretch:  Won 4 out of 6
Outlook:  Very good if they can take care of business in the West


5.  Florida
Record:  17-6, 6-3 in conference
RPI:  48
SOS:  69
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  2-5 with wins over Florida State (43), Michigan State (14)… losses to Syracuse (2), Richmond (31), Vanderbilt (19), Kentucky (6), Tennessee (18)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  4-2
Recent Stretch:  Won 6 out of 7
Outlook:  Need to take care of Xavier and Tennessee at home for an RPI boost


6.  Mississippi State
Record:  16-7, 4-4 in conference
RPI:  69
SOS:  124
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  2-3 with wins over Old Dominion (35), Ole Miss (36)… losses to Richmond (31), Vanderbilt (19), Florida (48)
Remaining Schedule:  5 home, 3 road
Record In True Road Games:  3-5
Recent Stretch:  Lost 4 out of 5
Outlook:  Bleak… Kentucky and Tennessee are the only Top 50 RPI games remaining


7.  South Carolina
Record:  13-9, 4-4 in conference
RPI:  70
SOS:  27
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  3-6 with wins over South Florida (51), Richmond (31), Kentucky (6)… losses to Clemson (40), Baylor (28), Vanderbilt (19), Ole Miss (36), Florida (48), Tennessee (18)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  1-6
Recent Stretch:  Lost 4 out of 6
Outlook:  Bleak… road woes have doomed this team


8.  Georgia
Record:  10-11, 2-6 in conference
RPI:  89
SOS:  8
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  3-5 with wins over Georgia Tech (25), Tennessee (18), Vanderbilt (19)… losses to UAB (29), Missouri (47), Kentucky (6), Ole Miss (36), Florida (48)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  0-8
Recent Stretch:  Lost 6 out of 8
Outlook:  Would have to win the SEC tourney


9.  Alabama
Record:  13-10, 3-6 in conference
RPI:  105
SOS:  59
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  1-8 with win over Baylor (28)… losses to Cornell (49), Florida State (43), Purdue (11), Kansas State (7), Vanderbilt (19), Tennessee (18), Florida (48), Ole Miss (36)
Remaining Schedule: 3 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  2-3
Recent Stretch:  Lost 6 out of 8 and 3 in a row
Outlook:  Would have to win the SEC tourney


10.  Arkansas
Record:  12-11, 5-3 in conference
RPI:  113
SOS:  29
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  1-6 with win over Ole Miss (36)… losses to Louisville (42), Baylor (28), UAB (29), Texas (22), Florida (48), Kentucky (6)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  2-3
Recent Stretch:  Won 4 in a row
Outlook:  Would have to win the SEC tourney


11.  Auburn
Record:  10-12, 2-6 in conference
RPI:  150
SOS:  76
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  0-5 with losses to Florida State (43), Tennessee (18), Kentucky (6), Vanderbilt (19), Ole Miss (36)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  1-5
Recent Stretch:  Lost 6 out of 8
Outlook:  Would have to win the SEC tourney


12.  LSU
Record: 9-14, 0-9 in conference
RPI:  212
SOS:  87
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  0-5 with losses to Xavier (27), Florida (48), Ole Miss (36), Tennessee (18), Kentucky (6)
Remaining Schedule:  3 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  0-5
Recent Stretch:  lost 9 in a row
Outlook:  Would have to win the SEC tourney… and that would require a miracle

Paul Finebaum of The Mobile Press-Register has posted his latest offering: a commentary on the winning and losing coaches from national signing day.

Gene Chizik gets a thumbs up… and in the process earns predecessor Tommy Tuberville a thumbs down (as though Tuberville never won at Auburn).

Nick Saban gets mocked for his post-signing day speech about commitment.  Urban Meyer earns kudos.  “Derrick” Dooley draws praise for selling what Lane Kiffin couldn’t — “integrity.”

But it’s Mr. Finebaum’s comments about Mark Richt that will heat up the messageboards and call-in shows today.  I know.  ‘Cause anytime I suggest that Richt is in trouble (even though I don’t believe he should be), I get blasted by a group of pro-Richt Georgia fans.

Mr. Finebaum, prepare to get blasted for this:

“Mark Richt: Loser.  It is time for the fat lady to start clearing her voice for Richt’s career at Georgia.  He got punked in the final days, losing players to key rivals.  Certainly, Richt’s overall body of work is very impressive — with two SEC titles and a solid reputation.  However, two of his biggest rivals — Tennessee and Auburn — are gaining on him and Florida has owned the Bulldogs.  Richt can try and shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic by changing coordinators.  But his ship at Georgia appears to be sinking fast.”

No wishy-washiness there, eh?

Can’t wait to hear some Dawg fan blame this one on me.  “Well, why did you write about it and link to it?!”

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One last Signing Day 2010 breakdown for you today.  In this one, we simply lay out where each school went to find it’s 2010 signees:


Alabama

Total Signees:  26
From:  9 states

Alabama – 9
Georgia – 5
Tennessee – 3
Texas – 3
Mississippi -2
Maryland – 1
North Carolina – 1
South Carolina – 1
Virginia – 1



Arkansas

Total Signees: 25
From:  9 states

Arkansas – 5
Oklahoma – 5
Texas – 4
Florida – 3
Alabama – 2
Georgia – 2
Louisiana – 2
Missouri – 1
North Carolina – 1



Auburn

Total Signees:  32
From:  11 states

Alabama – 11
Georgia – 8
Florida – 3
Arkansas – 2
California – 2
Kansas – 1
Louisiana – 1
Mississippi – 1
Missouri – 1
South Carolina – 1
Texas – 1



Florida

Total Signees:  28
From:  8 states

Florida – 16
Georgia – 3
California – 2
Maryland – 2
New York – 2
Alabama – 1
Connecticut – 1
Pennsylvania – 1



Georgia

Total Signees:  19
From:  3 states

Georgia – 14
Florida – 4
South Carolina – 1



Kentucky

Total Signees:  26
From:  10 states

Georgia – 7
South Carolina – 4
Kentucky -3
Ohio – 3
Tennessee – 3
Florida – 2
Alabama – 1
California – 1
Mississippi – 1
Virginia – 1



LSU

Total Signees:  27
From:  9 states

Louisiana – 13
Georgia – 3
Texas – 3
Florida – 2
Mississippi – 2
Alabama – 1
Ohio – 1
Tennessee – 1
Virginia – 1



Mississippi State

Total Signees:  26
From:  5 states

Mississippi – 19
Alabama – 3
Texas – 2
Louisiana – 1
Tennessee – 1



Ole Miss

Total Signees:  24
From:  7 states

Mississippi – 10
Florida – 7
Alabama – 2
Georgia – 2
Arkansas – 1
Tennessee – 1
Virginia – 1



South Carolina

Total Signees:  23
From: 5 states

South Carolina – 7
Georgia – 6
Florida – 5
North Carolina – 3
Kansas – 2



Tennessee

Total Signees:  25
From:  12 states

Georgia – 6
Alabama – 3
California – 3
Florida – 2
Illinois – 2
South Carolina – 2
Tennessee – 2
Kansas – 1
Kentucky – 1
Mississippi – 1
Texas – 1
Virginia – 1



Vanderbilt

Total Signees:  24
From:  12 states

Georgia – 9
Alabama – 3
Florida – 2
Louisiana – 2
California – 1
Mississippi – 1
New Jersey – 1
Ohio – 1
South Carolina – 1
Tennessee – 1
Texas – 1
Virginia – 1



Observations:

* Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt are the only three SEC schools whose home state is NOT their top talent-producer.  Interestingly, all three schools had more signees from Georgia than any other state.

* Arkansas and Tennessee are the only schools in the conference to not get at least 25% of their talent from any one state.

* Mississippi State and Georgia each got a whopping 73% of their signees from inside their home states… followed by Florida (57%), LSU (48%), Ole Miss (41%), Alabama (34%), Auburn (34%) and South Carolina (30%).

* Georgia’s signees all came from just 3 states (Georgia, Florida and South Carolina).  Mississippi State and South Carolina signed talent from just five states each.

* Tennessee and Vanderbilt had to grab talent from 12 different states.  Auburn dipped into 11 states… Kentucky into 10.

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Continuing our breakdown of Signing Day 2010, here’s a look at the SEC-caliber talent produced by each league state… and who landed it.



Georgia

Total Signees:  65

To:  Georgia (14), Vanderbilt (9), Auburn (8), Kentucky (7), South Carolina (6), Tennessee (6), Alabama (5), Florida (3), LSU (3), Arkansas (2), Ole Miss (2)



Florida

Total Signees:  46

To:  Florida (16), Ole Miss (7), South Carolina (5), Georgia (4), Arkansas (3), Auburn (3), Kentucky (2), LSU (2), Tennessee (2), Vanderbilt (2)



Mississippi

Total Signees:  37

To:  MSU (19), Ole Miss (10), Alabama (2), LSU (2), Auburn (1), Kentucky (1), Tennessee (1), Vanderbilt (1)



Alabama

Total Signees:  36

To:  Auburn (11), Alabama (9), MSU (3), Tennessee (3), Vanderbilt (3), Arkansas (2), Ole Miss (2), Florida (1), Kentucky (1), LSU (1)



Louisiana

Total Signees:  19

To:  LSU (13), Arkansas (2), Vanderbilt (2), Auburn (1), MSU (1)



South Carolina

Total Signees:  17

To:  South Carolina (7), Kentucky (4), Tennessee (2), Alabama (1), Auburn (1), Georgia (1), Vanderbilt (1)



Tennessee

Total Signees:  12

To:  Alabama (3), Kentucky (3), Tennessee (2), LSU (1), MSU (1), Ole Miss (1), Vanderbilt (1)



Arkansas

Total Signees:  8

To:  Arkansas (5), Auburn (2), Ole Miss (1)



Kentucky

Total Signees:  4

To:  Kentucky (3), Tennessee (1)

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Recruiting is over for 2010 and coaches are already starting to line up commitments for 2011.  But before we put Signing Day 2010 completely to bed, let’s go back and see where the SEC’s talent came from.

Below you’ll find various charts and numbers showing you — among other things — which SEC states were mined by the most schools, which states across the country provided SEC teams with the most signees, which schools had to travel outside their own states most often, and where each league school went to lock up their signees.

It’s geekery to the Nth degree… which is just the way I like it.  Enjoy.

SEC programs signed 305 players on national signing day from a total of 25 different states.  Below, you’ll see which states (by percentage) produced the most SEC-caliber football players:

Observations:

* Georgia, not Florida, provided the most SEC signees in 2010.  And by a fairly wide margin, too.

* More than 60% of the signees in the SEC came from Georgia, Florida, Mississippi and Alabama.

* Texas (15) produced more SEC signees than league states Tennessee (12), Arkansas (8) and Kentucky (4).

* California (9) produced more signees than Arkansas (8).

* More SEC signees came from Ohio (5), North Carolina (5), and Oklahoma (5) than Kentucky (4).

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1.  Gator fans believe the Tim Tebow Super Bowl ad was overhyped.  As I wrote earlier, I agree.

2.  This writer also believes “many people got all worked up for nothing.”

3.  It looks like the Gators will have to do some shuffling on their roster this fall.

4.  Georgia safety Baccari Rambo is in a Twitter/Facebook war with former UGA commitment and Tennessee signee Da’Rick Rogers.

5.  ESPN’s “College GameDay” will be at Rupp Arena for Kentucky’s game with Tennessee on Saturday… but Bob Knight won’t be tagging along.

6.  For the first time in a long time, the question can really be asked: Which Carolina (North or South) has a better basketball team?

7.  Steven Pearl can smile about the amount of playing time he’s getting for Tennessee (and papa Bruce).

After the Texas squad’s 36-17 victory Saturday in the Texas vs. The Nation all-star game, Sporting News draft expert Russ Lande and his team of former NFL scouts identified the players who helped their draft status the most this past week in El Paso:

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The Alabama-Mississippi All-Star Classic has once again earned its title as the “Pipeline to…
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National signing day came and went Wednesday, proving again the myth that parity exists in college football. The same programs that dominate the recruiting rankings are the same ones who have controlled the game’s power for what seems like forever.

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Wayne Chism scored a career-high 30 points as No. 14 Tennessee routed South Carolina 79-53 on Saturday night.
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Tennessee held South Carolina to its worst shooting effort of the season, beating the Gamecocks 79-53 Saturday in Knoxville.

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Tennessee men’s basketball players Cameron Tatum and Melvin Goins started the new year learning a new – and very costly – life lesson.
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Tennessee sophomore Scotty Hopson was yawning while hoisting up extra shots an hour before the Vols’ Friday afternoon practice.
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COLUMBIA — The reality of today’s South Carolina-Tennessee game is that it could rather easily go either way. The reality is most Southeastern Conference games can. “We can play with or beat anybody,” USC second-year coach Darrin Horn said.
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Sorry for the delay between posts.  I can assure you I’d have rather been uploading stories than driving four hours through a monsoon behind several people who’ve apparently never seen rain before… much less driven in it.

Here are a few of the bigger stories from across the SEC this afternoon:

1.  A special prosecutor who looked into the case involving three Arkansas basketball players who were accused of rape last fall has decided not to file charges.  This is the same decision that was reached by authorities shortly after the frat party incident occurred.

2.  Here’s a collection of recruiting class reviews from a number of different analysts.  The big surprise seems to have been Derek Dooley’s work at Tennessee.

3.  This writer breaks down the basketball race in the SEC West.

4.  New Ole Miss co-offensive coordinator Dave Rader said he’ll learn Houston Nutt’s system “and go from there.”

5.  Rader also said that for UM’s new quarterbacks “there’s nothing between them but air and opportunity.”

6.  Folks are still talking about Tim Tebow’s soon-to-air Super Bowl ad.  (Enough already.)

Jimmy Kimmel also had a little fun with the controversy last night:



7.  This Georgia writer/fan says “thank goodness for AJ Green and Orson Charles.”

8.  John Calipari asked his Kentucky team three questions during yesterday’s practice.

9.  John Wall and Devan Downey are among 11 finalists for the Bob Cousy Award.

10.  Tennessee has finally sealed the deal and hired Chuck Smith as defensive line coach.



In other news, it’s expected that Kentucky won’t make the hiring of receivers coach Tee Martin official until next week.

And just weeks after he turned them down, the name of Ole Miss defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix is once again being associated with Florida NEW search for a D coordinator to call their own.  (If Nix wouldn’t go the first time around, why would he go into what is now a “co-coordinator” job?)

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As I gear up for the drive home from Atlanta — thanks to Bob Neal and the “SportsNite” crew at CSS for hosting me last night, by the way — I thought I’d give you some things to think about.

Below are 10 SEC-related issues that I will be keeping a close eye on over the next three seasons.

Here’s goes:

1.  South Carolina in 2010 — It appears to be a now or never season for Steve Spurrier and the Cocks.  The big dogs in the East don’t look to be quite so big next year and the Gamecocks will have an edge with an experienced quarterback.

2.  Arkansas in 2010 — Folks here in Atlanta keep waiting for Bobby Petrino to skip town again.  If the Razorbacks can’t make progress with their defense this year, Petrino might start getting the itch to find an easier gig somewhere else.

3.  Tennessee vs Georgia — In the 1990s, two teams from the East won SEC titles (Florida and Tennessee).  In the 2000s, two teams from the East won SEC titles (Florida and Georgia).  History shows that the East usually has two dominant programs at a time.  There’s some uneasiness in both Athens and Knoxville these days.  Over the next three years we should get a clearer picture of which program will best compete with Florida over the long haul.

4.  Ole Miss vs Mississippi State — Houston Nutt and Dan Mullen are already firing small barbs at one another.  Both schools are trying to win the battle for in-state recruits.  Whichever school best takes control of the Magnolia State will be primed to potentially climb into the upper half of the SEC West on a regular basis.

5.  Kentucky vs Vanderbilt — Someone has to be at the bottom of the East.  The Vandy-UK rivalry is a lot closer historically than most folks realize.  And Bobby Johnson just put together his best recruiting class.  Can Vandy climb over the Wildcats long term?  They’ll have to start beating them on the field again to do so.

6.  LSU vs Auburn — Auburn appears to be on the rise while LSU has dropped nine games in the last two seasons.  One of these teams will be Alabama’s stiffest competition in the years ahead.  Which will it be?

7.  Florida vs Alabama — Florida was the SEC’s best in 2008.  Alabama was tops in 2009.  Let’s see which team does what in the next three seasons.  That’ll make it a “best-out-of-five” to claim “flagship program” status in the SEC.

8.  Les Miles vs Mark Richt — Richt is the dean of SEC coaches and that’s never a good place to be.  Miles is the guy who will always be compared to Nick Saban… and that’s not a good situation, either.  Which man will be the last standing?

9.  Which school will be the next first-timer to reach Atlanta — Ole Miss, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vanderbilt have never made it to an SEC Championship Game.  Which program will be the first to make it?

10.  Nick Saban vs Urban Meyer — Like Richt and Miles, there’s a battle here to see who survives the longest.  Will Meyer give in to stress and health concerns and walk away at some point in the next three years?  Will Saban pull a Pete Carroll and head back to the NFL to prove himself at that level?  Which great coach will outlast the other in the SEC?

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1.  Florida might have been wise to back off of prospect Demar Dorsey.

2.  A Jacksonville Jaguars offensive lineman posted five reasons that his team should NOT draft Tim Tebow.

3.  Billy Donovan put the game in Erving Walker’s hands… and he delivered a 66-65 win over Alabama last night.

4.  The Gators are trying to build a NCAA tournament-ready resume.

5.  Depth at receiver is suddenly an issue for Georgia.

6.  Athletic director Damon Evans — who might be the most high-profile AD in the conference — opened up about signing day, Todd Grantham’s salary and more.

7.  This writer believes Georgia’s signing class is better than advertised.

8.  Grantham’s 3-4 defense could mean several position changes in Athens.

9.  As we told you yesterday, Tee Martin has been hired to coach receivers at Kentucky.

10.  Patrick Patterson chooses to put his teammates ahead of himself.

11.  John Calipari’s Wildcats will next face an LSU team that just can’t seem to score.

12.  This writer is grading South Carolina’s signing class position by position.

13.  The chances of Darrin Horn’s basketball team making the NCAA tournament don’t look too good right now.

14.  Derek Dooley continues to be the anti-Kiffin at Tennessee.

15.  UT is still talking to former Vol Chuck Smith about a job as defensive line coach.

16.  New defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox’s resume looks pretty good to this writer.

17.  Wayne Chism’s 20 points and Bobby Maze’s late free throws delivered a 59-54 win at LSU last night.

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Tennessee could be close to filling the lone remaining vacancy on its coaching staff.

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Hope you folks like our links, digits, grades, breakdowns and recruiting studies today.

I’m heading off to Atlanta where tonight I’ll be a guest on “SportsNite” with Bob Neal.  If you want to see someone who should NOT be on television, you can catch the show at 6pm on CSS.

I’m just thankful to be invited.

Our recruiting guru, Josh Ward, should be fully recuperated from yesterday and posting some more recruiting updates here this afternoon.

And if any breaking news should occur, we’ll have it for you right here.

Til then… have a good rest of your morning and afternoon.

John

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For the past four years, I’ve been trying to see just how much having a top-ranked recruiting class correlates to winning football games.

We all know that the recruiting services miss on guys.  So do coaches.

Some five-star guys never pan out.  Some no-star guys make all-conference.  So just how much emphasis should fans put on recruiting rankings? 

Should they ignore them?  No.  And we’ll show you why.

Should they then consider them gospel?  Also no.  And we’ll also show you why.



In studying recruiting numbers from the SEC dating back to 2002, I’ve found that these rankings should be thought of a bit like a raffle.  The more raffle tickets you buy, the better your odds of winning.  Likewise, the more five-star signees you lock up, the more likely one or two of them will pan out.

Examining the numbers, I’ve found that recruiting rankings can give fans a general idea of their program’s direction.  Like a compass.  There will always be exceptions, but if you eye the “ballpark” in which your program sits, you can get a good feel for how it will do inside the conference in an upcoming season.

These rankings are not a GPS system.  Signing one all-star class will NOT guarantee a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.

But let me show you what I mean.



To break things down, I began by looking at the 2006 season.  I tossed out the non-conference games (because not everyone plays an equal schedule) and focused entirely on SEC in-conference games.

Then, to see how each team was built, I tallied up their recruiting rankings (via Rivals.com) for the five years leading up to the 2006 season.  2002 would include a team’s fifth-year seniors… while 2006 would include the program’s true freshmen.

By 2006 some folks would have flunked out, been kicked off, transferred, been injured, or left school early for the pros.  I know this.  But again, we’re talking about generalities here.  The more talent signed over a five-year period, the better off a team should do.

As you’ll see below, the rankings do seem to matter… when you look in “ballpark” terms. 

The best team over a five-year period might not have the best conference record.  But the four best teams in recruiting WOULD have a better conference record than any other bunches of SEC teams.

Here’s what I mean:

Above you see how each SEC team ranked in terms of recruiting for each year from 2002 through 2006.  I added up the Rivals’ yearly rankings and ranked the teams (in red) based on their recruiting haul over a five-year period.  Each school’s actual conference record is at right.

As you can see, there is no direct correlation between a team’s recruiting and its on-field performance.  Schedule, injuries and a dozen other factors play a role in wins and losses.



But look at the results when you simply look at the schools by their “ballpark” finish in recruiting:

Georgia, Florida, LSU and Tennessee combined to go 22-10 in conference play.  That’s a winning clip of 68.7%

Auburn, Carolina, Alabama and Arkansas finished in the middle of the recruiting pack.  Their SEC record in 2006 was a combined 18-14 (56.2%)

The bottom four teams in recruiting over that five-year span were Ole Miss, MSU, Kentucky and Vandy.  They went 8-24 in SEC play in 2006 for a 25.0% winning mark.



So does that “ballpark” view of recruiting rankings work over the long haul?  Uh-huh.

Here’s 2007:

The teams with the best recruiting rankings from 2003-2007 were Florida, Georgia, LSU and Tennessee.  They went a combined 23-9 in league play in ‘07 (71.8%).

The middle of the pack’ers in recruiting were Auburn, Carolina, Alabama and Arkansas who went 16-16 (50.0%).

And the bottom four were Ole Miss, MSU, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  They went a combined 9-23 (28.1%).



Here’s 2008:

The top four recruiting rankings from 2004-2008 belonged to Florida, Georgia, LSU and Alabama.  They went 24-8 in 2008 (75.0%).

The middle four in recruiting were Auburn, Tennessee, USC and Ole Miss who went 14-18 in league play (43.7%).

The bottom four ranked teams were Arkansas, MSU, Kentucky and Vandy who went 10-22 in SEC games (31.2%).



Fast forward to last season, 2009:

From 2005 through 2009 the teams with the best five-year recruiting rankings were Florida, Georgia, Alabama and LSU.  They finished last season 25-7 in the SEC (78.1%).

The middle four recruiting hauls belonged to Auburn, Tennessee, USC and Ole Miss who recorded a combined league record of 14-18 (43.7%).

And the bottom four teams in terms of recruiting rankings were Arkansas, MSU, Kentucky and Vandy who tallied a 9-23 league mark last year (28.1%).



Remember, we’re looking at the four teams grouped together by their recruiting rankings over a five-year period… not the final conference standings.

The fact that the top four teams in recruiting almost always win 67-75% of their conference games is an interesting find.

Ditto the facts the the middle four in recruiting usually win about 50% of their SEC games and the bottom four in recruiting usually win about 30% of their conference games.



If you add up all of the numbers over the past four years, here’s the result:

The Top 4 in Recruiting Rankings from 2002-2009 — 94-34 in SEC play (73.4%)

The Middle 4 in Recruiting Rankings from 2002-2009 — 62-66 in SEC play (48.4%)

The Bottom 4 in Recruiting Rankings from 2002-2009 — 36-92 in SEC play (28.1%)

So is there a direct correlation between a team’s five-year recruiting haul and its final in-conference record?  No.  But when you step back and see where a team ranks in regards to its rivals, you can get a feel for the general direction in which the team is headed.



So what should we expect for 2010?

Well, the four best schools in terms of recruiting rankings from 2006 through yesterday’s class are Florida, Alabama, LSU and Georgia.  Based on past results, it’s likely those teams will combine to win about 70% of their conference games this fall.

The middle four schools in terms of recruiting are Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina and Ole Miss.  If history repeats, those schools will combine to win about 50% of their SEC games this fall.

And the four programs who fared the worst in recruiting from 2006 to 2010 are Arkansas, MSU, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  You can look for them to combine to win about 30% of their conference games.



Again, recruiting rankings aren’t a GPS system showing you exactly where your favorite team will finish in 2010. 

But they do serve as a compass. 

Look at what your team has done over the past five signing days and you’ll get a ballpark idea of the direction your school is headed this fall.

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So what grades are we handing out to the coaching staffs across the SEC today?  Well, we could just give our thoughts based on the final team rankings provided by the major scouting services.

But what fun would that be?  Plus, not all of the SEC’s coaches were playing on an even field.  So taking into consideration “degree of difficulty,” here’s how we ranked the work of the league’s coaches:



Florida / Rivals rank: 2 / Urban Meyer = A
Meyer signed an unbelievable class and did so despite rumors swirling about his future.  But he’s already got one of the nation’s best programs and he’s based in a talent-laden state.

Auburn / Rivals rank: 4 / Gene Chizik = A+
Chizik’s hire drew laughs a year ago.  Not now.  With a staff built for the recruiting game, Chizik has Auburn competing with the big boys across the country… and most importantly with the monster across the state.  Chizik’s crew also Tiger Prowl’ed their way into just about every SEC state to steal someone of note.  A stellar, stellar job.

Alabama / Rivals rank: 5 / Nick Saban = A
Saban has the Tide — like Florida — rolling.  He’s also in a talent-rich state.  This year he could simply pick and choose and target areas of need.  Saban doesn’t get an A+, but I’m guessing he could have gotten one if he needed it.

LSU / Rivals rank: 6 / Les Miles = A
Miles needed this one.  He needed the last-minute converts from other programs.  As Saban has risen, LSU’s fortunes have fallen off.  Getting a better than expected class should keep the wolves from howling… at least until fall.  The best news for Miles is that he owns the state of Louisiana and 2011 looks to be a great year for in-state prospects.

Tennessee / Rivals rank: 9 / Derek Dooley = A+
Dooley gets a top mark because of degree of difficulty.  He got the UT job less than three weeks before signing day.  He didn’t have a full coaching staff.  Lane Kiffin (and the rest of the SEC) were trying to sway Vol commitments.  And his state’s recruiting base is weak.  Still Dooley pulled a Top 10 class and swiped the #1 player from the state of Georgia.  There’s no other grade but A+ to give.

Georgia / Rivals rank: 16 / Mark Richt = C
Based on the type of athlete Georgia brought in, Richt deserves an A.  But he didn’t bring in many.  And those he did land lack the kind of star power that make recruiting analysts go ga-ga.  A bigger concern — as we pointed out yesterday — is the fact that that other schools (Auburn, Tennessee) are finding it easier to raid the Peach State for four- and five-star players.  Miles got a boost from recruiting… Richt did not.

Ole Miss / Rivals Rank: 17 / Houston Nutt = B+
Nutt closed with a flurry as he often does.  He’s not a guy that believes in early commitments.  He also made a comeback inside his home state to nab most of the top in-state talent.  A good day for Nutt.

South Carolina / Rivals rank: 25 / Steve Spurrier = C
Spurrier hit a home run in landing Marcus Lattimore.  But overall, Clemson still grabbed more of the top guns from inside the state.  Also, take Lattimore away from this class and tell me what you have.  Spurrier says the class will feel needs.  Maybe so.  But on paper, it’s not great.

Mississippi State / Rivals rank: 38 / Dan Mullen = B+
Dan Mullen talks a good game and he backed it up with his recruiting haul.  Oh, there are few true stars in the bunch, but again, Mullen faces a higher degree of difficulty than the school to his north.  He came close to equaling UM’s pull among the state’s Top 25 players.  That’s a positive for a guy leading one of only two SEC schools to not reach a bowl last year.

Arkansas / Rivals rank: 48 / Bobby Petrino = C
The Razorbacks targeted defense and they landed a pair of four-star defensive tackles.  Petrino fight an uphill battle in the state of Arkansas, but there is some talent that he allowed to escape — Michael Dyer for example.

Kentucky / Rivals Rank: 49 / Joker Phillips = C-
Phillips did edge past Charlie Strong at Louisville, but Kentucky should have had a better year.  They had some stability, the Cardinals did not.  UK was coming off another bowl game, Louisville was coming off another bowl loss.  The Cats landed just one four-star recruit.  The Bluegrass State doesn’t have a lot of talent — but as we wrote yesterday — Phillips needs to start drawing the best in-state players to Lexington.

Vanderbilt / Rivals Rank: 61 / Bobby Johnson = B+
How can I give Johnson such a good grade?  For one, he just signed the best class Vandy’s landed in years.  For another, we’re talking about Vandy.  Johnson is the anti-Nutt, locking up commitments early and often.  Credit to him for holding on to most of them.

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1.  Everyone thinks Florida’s class is amazing.  (Though, as we showed you, Rivals has dropped the Gators from #1 to #2 overall.)

2.  Here are some grades of the Gators’ class by position.

3.  Jordan Reed’s move from quarterback to tight end opened up a spot for Tyler Murphy… who Urban Meyer believes is a hidden gem.

4.  Despite questions about Meyer’s status, UF’s commitments made good on their promises.

5.  Meyer had to fend off some negative recruiting this time around.

6.  Old buddies Billy Donovan and Anthony Grant will square off in Tuscaloosa tonight.

7.  Late flip-flops snapped Georgia’s streak of Top 10 signing classes.

8.  That made tackle Mike Thornton a big pickup.

9.  Overall, star power is lacking for UGA.

10.  Here’s an overview of the Dawgs’ class.

11.  Visits with Georgia’s staff led Bob Stoops to hire Willie Martinez.

12.  Joker Phillips first Kentucky class came with some pleasant surprises.

13.  This writer believes a smooth transition from Rich Brooks to Phillips played a role in that.

14.  Five players committed and signed with UK in the final hours of the recruiting season.

15.  Here’s a review of the Wildcats’ signees.

16.  John Calipari wants Patrick Patterson to get more aggressive.

17.  This writer would take DeMarcus Cousins over John Wall in the NBA draft.

18.  This writer believes South Carolina is still making recruiting progress.

19.  Here’s a breakdown of the Gamecocks’ class.

20.  Steve Spurrier says as many as 10 freshmen could contribute next year.

21.  This writer doesn’t believe that Spurrier will be committed enough to the run to truly feature Marcus Lattimore.

22.  The six linemen USC signed could be just as important as Lattimore.

23.  Derek Dooley didn’t accuse anyone of cheating at a booster breakfast this morning.

24.  Dooley says Justin Wilcox — who’s expected to be paid $650,000 a year — is the “right person” to run UT’s defense.

25.  Tennessee was once known as Wide Receiver U… and with yesterday’s signees, that moniker might make a comeback.

26.  This writer believes the Vols’ signing class “might be remembered as UT’s most reassuring class.”

27.  The head coach doesn’t believe in getting excited over signing day.

28.  JP Prince will have to defend LSU’s leading scorer Tasmin Mitchell tonight.

29.  Bobby Johnson knew where he needed to go with this signing class… and he looks to have helped his offense.

30.  Johnson said of his linemen signees, “We’re getting to where we can recruit the big guys, too.”

31.  Vandy held off Mississippi State last night to improve to 6-1 in the SEC for the first time in nearly 20 years.

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Since everyone else is handing out grades today, we figured it was a good time to show you how our recruiting Big Board looks… now that the smoke from signing day 2010 has cleared.

For those that follow us regularly, you know that we use Rivals.com’s numbers when making our comparisons.

Below you’ll find a breakdown of each school’s signing class.  We list the total number of signees according to Rivals (some schools haven’t listed early enrollees among their signees).

We break down each class by the number recruits they landed with certain star grades.  We then assign one point for every star that Rivals handed out.  We also give 0-star signees one point.

We then tally up the total number of points and that’s how we rank the programs.

Beneath that, you’ll find another chart showing you the average number of points per player for each signing class.  This will show you which schools landed the highest caliber of athletes on average.

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Wondering how the experts are grading the SEC’s recruiting classes?  Well, of course you are.

And what am I if not your pusher?  So here’s your ridiculously early post-signing day grading fix.



Rivals.com

What does it say about the conference that all 12 member institutions locked down Top 60 signing classes?  Face it, the SEC is just getting tougher and tougher and tougher.



Scout.com

Okay, so what does it say that 12 programs signed Top 53 signing classes?  See above.



ESPNU.com (only Top 25 classes are ranked)

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1.  Alabama will have an invited walk-on competing for kicking duties next season.

2.  One Tide football signee has already talked with Anthony Grant about playing basketball, too.

3.  Gene Chizik said today was “a great day for Auburn.” 

4.  The Mobile Press-Register’s Super Southeast 120 is all signed up.

5.  Houston Nutt once again finished strong in recruiting… and he did well with in-state recruits to boot.

6.  Folks in Starkville are pleased with the Bulldogs’ class, too.

7.  It may or may not be the best recruiting class in college football history, but it certainly looks to be the best class in Florida history.

8.  Urban Meyer says his leave of absence begins tomorrow, but he’ll be back sometime before spring practice opens in mid-March.

9.  Meyer said of his signing class, “As far as the defensive front, I don’t think I’ve ever seen one like this.”

10.  Georgia landed a surprise 19th signature today, but receiver Lonnie Outlaw won’t play for the Dawgs until 2012.

11.  Mark Richt is excited “about what the future holds.”

12.  UGA athletic director Damon Evans got a new five-year contract today that includes a yearly salary of $550,000.

13.  Kentucky got a boost from a pair of in-state signees today.

14.  Steve Spurrier says he’s happy with Carolina’s recruiting class because it fills needs.

15.  Top defensive coach Ellis Johnson has come to terms with USC on his new contract… which will likely pay him $700,000 a year.

16.  Tennessee made it official today, hiring Chris Wilcox from Boise State to head up the Vols’ defense.

17.  Vandy inked 24 players today and suffered only one surprise defection.

18.  Arkansas fans hope Bobby Petrino can “coach up” this year’s signing class the way he did with his poorly graded classes at Louisville.

19.  LSU had a stronger than expected signing class.

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