ESPN’s Joe Lunardi — the man who correctly picked the entire 65-team NCAA tournament field in 2008 — has released his latest projections for this year’s March Madness… and five SEC teams are in his field.

His predictions for the league’s tourney-bound teams:



1.  Kentucky — 1st seed in the East (vs 16th seed Robert Morris in Milwaukee)

2.  Tennessee — 4th seed in the South (vs 13th seed Murray State in Spokane)

3.  Vanderbilt — 4th seed in the West (vs 13th seed Utah State in San Jose)

4.  Florida — 7th seed in the South (vs 10th seed Xavier in Jacksonville)

5.  Ole Miss — 9th seed in the Midwest (vs 8th seed Florida State in Oklahoma City)

1.  Nick Saban has won the first ever Bobby Bowden Award.  So he’ll get forced out in favor of Jimbo Fisher as a reward?

2.  A road game at Kentucky is hardly the easiest way for Alabama to snap a three-game losing streak.

3.  JaMychal Green is drawing a lot of defensive attention from opponents.

4.  This writer believes Tide fans need to see Anthony Grant’s first team as a glass half-full, not half-empty.

5.  And Grant is happy with the amount of talent he’s seen in Alabama’s high school gyms.

6.  So how does a recruiting class stack up five years after signing day?  Take a look at Auburn’s class of 2005.

7.  Trooper Taylor and Curtis Luper are getting lots of praise for Auburn’s 2010 class.

8.  Arkansas’ Courtney Fortson has been named the SEC’s Player of the Week, but…

9.  Folks are already wondering how long he can continue to carry the Razorbacks.

10.  Auburn’s Jeff Lebo says, “Fortson coming back makes them a completely different team, you can’t look at them before that.”

11.  The Hogs have made a habit of falling behind early and then fighting their way back.

12.  LSU’s Bo Spencer has been getting more aggressive on offense.

13.  Dan Mullen’s taken to the skies now that recruiting season is over.

14.  Rick Stansbury is still wishing he had more depth on his basketball team.

15.  Here’s one writer’s opinion of what Ole Miss needs to do to reach the NCAA tournament.

The SEC ranks fourth among conferences in most of the RPI rankings and computer ratings.  That’s not bad, but it’s not great, either.

Before the season began, league coaches predicted a big bounceback from last year’s disappointing season.  Some expected six or seven SEC squads to reach the NCAA tournament.  How’s that looking now?

Well, if you simply went by the latest RPI rankings, just five SEC teams would rank among the nation’s 65 best teams — Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Florida.  Of course, RPI ratings are just part of the overall resume the NCAA selection committee takes into account when breaking down a school.

Below are some notes on all 12 schools here at the midpoint of the SEC season… including their NCAA tournament outlooks:



1.  Kentucky
Record:  22-1, 7-1 in conference
RPI:  6
SOS:  52
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  4-0 with wins over Louisville (42), Florida (48), Vanderbilt (19), Ole Miss (36)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  4-1
Recent Stretch:  Won 3 in a row
Outlook:  If they keep things up, UK will be in the running for a #1 seed


2.  Tennessee
Record:  18-4, 6-2 in conference
RPI:  18
SOS:  34
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  4-2 with wins over Charlotte (46), Kansas (1), Ole Miss (36), Florida (48)… losses to Purdue (11), Vanderbilt (19)
Remaining Schedule:  3 home, 5 road
Record In True Road Games:  3-2
Recent Stretch:  Won 3 in a row
Outlook:  Very good, but tonight’s game with Vanderbilt looms large as both schools have similar resumes right now


3.  Vanderbilt
Record:  16-5, 6-2 in conference
RPI:  19
SOS:  23
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  4-1 with wins over St. Mary’s (45), Missouri (47), Florida (48), Tennessee (18)… loss to Kentucky (6)
Remaining Schedule:  5 home, 3 road
Record In True Road Games:  4-3
Recent Stretch:  Lost 2 out of 3
Outlook:  Very good, but they need tonight’s game with Tennessee for the same reason UT does


4.  Ole Miss
Record:  17-6, 5-4 in conference
RPI:  36
SOS:  50
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  1-4 with win over Kansas State (7)… losses to Villanova (5), West Virginia (4), Tennessee (18), Kentucky (6)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 3 road
Record In True Road Games:  4-3
Recent Stretch:  Won 4 out of 6
Outlook:  Very good if they can take care of business in the West


5.  Florida
Record:  17-6, 6-3 in conference
RPI:  48
SOS:  69
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  2-5 with wins over Florida State (43), Michigan State (14)… losses to Syracuse (2), Richmond (31), Vanderbilt (19), Kentucky (6), Tennessee (18)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  4-2
Recent Stretch:  Won 6 out of 7
Outlook:  Need to take care of Xavier and Tennessee at home for an RPI boost


6.  Mississippi State
Record:  16-7, 4-4 in conference
RPI:  69
SOS:  124
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  2-3 with wins over Old Dominion (35), Ole Miss (36)… losses to Richmond (31), Vanderbilt (19), Florida (48)
Remaining Schedule:  5 home, 3 road
Record In True Road Games:  3-5
Recent Stretch:  Lost 4 out of 5
Outlook:  Bleak… Kentucky and Tennessee are the only Top 50 RPI games remaining


7.  South Carolina
Record:  13-9, 4-4 in conference
RPI:  70
SOS:  27
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  3-6 with wins over South Florida (51), Richmond (31), Kentucky (6)… losses to Clemson (40), Baylor (28), Vanderbilt (19), Ole Miss (36), Florida (48), Tennessee (18)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  1-6
Recent Stretch:  Lost 4 out of 6
Outlook:  Bleak… road woes have doomed this team


8.  Georgia
Record:  10-11, 2-6 in conference
RPI:  89
SOS:  8
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  3-5 with wins over Georgia Tech (25), Tennessee (18), Vanderbilt (19)… losses to UAB (29), Missouri (47), Kentucky (6), Ole Miss (36), Florida (48)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  0-8
Recent Stretch:  Lost 6 out of 8
Outlook:  Would have to win the SEC tourney


9.  Alabama
Record:  13-10, 3-6 in conference
RPI:  105
SOS:  59
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  1-8 with win over Baylor (28)… losses to Cornell (49), Florida State (43), Purdue (11), Kansas State (7), Vanderbilt (19), Tennessee (18), Florida (48), Ole Miss (36)
Remaining Schedule: 3 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  2-3
Recent Stretch:  Lost 6 out of 8 and 3 in a row
Outlook:  Would have to win the SEC tourney


10.  Arkansas
Record:  12-11, 5-3 in conference
RPI:  113
SOS:  29
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  1-6 with win over Ole Miss (36)… losses to Louisville (42), Baylor (28), UAB (29), Texas (22), Florida (48), Kentucky (6)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  2-3
Recent Stretch:  Won 4 in a row
Outlook:  Would have to win the SEC tourney


11.  Auburn
Record:  10-12, 2-6 in conference
RPI:  150
SOS:  76
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  0-5 with losses to Florida State (43), Tennessee (18), Kentucky (6), Vanderbilt (19), Ole Miss (36)
Remaining Schedule:  4 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  1-5
Recent Stretch:  Lost 6 out of 8
Outlook:  Would have to win the SEC tourney


12.  LSU
Record: 9-14, 0-9 in conference
RPI:  212
SOS:  87
Record Vs Top 50 RPI:  0-5 with losses to Xavier (27), Florida (48), Ole Miss (36), Tennessee (18), Kentucky (6)
Remaining Schedule:  3 home, 4 road
Record In True Road Games:  0-5
Recent Stretch:  lost 9 in a row
Outlook:  Would have to win the SEC tourney… and that would require a miracle

On Saturday, star Kentucky freshman DeMarcus Cousins said that tonight’s game with Alabama is “going to be a big game” for him.  Why?  “There was a lot of bad blood between me and that school.”

A number of Lexington media folks tried to get to the bottom of the “bad blood” yesterday, but Cousins kept mum.  “Just a bad situation.  I really don’t want to talk about it.”

According to Gentry Estes of The Mobile Press-Register, Cousins might be ticked by the fact that former Tide coach Mark Gottfried didn’t spend much time recruiting him.  As you’ve probably noticed from watching him, Cousins is a tremendous talent, but that talent comes with a pretty short fuse. 

(John Calipari suggests Cousins’ temper is a product of being picked on for his weight back in the seventh and eight grades… by Alabama residents.  So maybe that plays a role in the “bad blood,” too.)

Then Anthony Grant arrived in Tuscaloosa and he — like Gottfried before him — pursued in-state recruit Eric Bledsoe rather than Cousins.

In the end, Calipari lured both players to Lexington.  And Cousins could be on his way to earning SEC Player of the Year honors and top-pick status in the NBA draft.

Paul Finebaum of The Mobile Press-Register has posted his latest offering: a commentary on the winning and losing coaches from national signing day.

Gene Chizik gets a thumbs up… and in the process earns predecessor Tommy Tuberville a thumbs down (as though Tuberville never won at Auburn).

Nick Saban gets mocked for his post-signing day speech about commitment.  Urban Meyer earns kudos.  “Derrick” Dooley draws praise for selling what Lane Kiffin couldn’t — “integrity.”

But it’s Mr. Finebaum’s comments about Mark Richt that will heat up the messageboards and call-in shows today.  I know.  ‘Cause anytime I suggest that Richt is in trouble (even though I don’t believe he should be), I get blasted by a group of pro-Richt Georgia fans.

Mr. Finebaum, prepare to get blasted for this:

“Mark Richt: Loser.  It is time for the fat lady to start clearing her voice for Richt’s career at Georgia.  He got punked in the final days, losing players to key rivals.  Certainly, Richt’s overall body of work is very impressive — with two SEC titles and a solid reputation.  However, two of his biggest rivals — Tennessee and Auburn — are gaining on him and Florida has owned the Bulldogs.  Richt can try and shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic by changing coordinators.  But his ship at Georgia appears to be sinking fast.”

No wishy-washiness there, eh?

Can’t wait to hear some Dawg fan blame this one on me.  “Well, why did you write about it and link to it?!”

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One last Signing Day 2010 breakdown for you today.  In this one, we simply lay out where each school went to find it’s 2010 signees:


Alabama

Total Signees:  26
From:  9 states

Alabama – 9
Georgia – 5
Tennessee – 3
Texas – 3
Mississippi -2
Maryland – 1
North Carolina – 1
South Carolina – 1
Virginia – 1



Arkansas

Total Signees: 25
From:  9 states

Arkansas – 5
Oklahoma – 5
Texas – 4
Florida – 3
Alabama – 2
Georgia – 2
Louisiana – 2
Missouri – 1
North Carolina – 1



Auburn

Total Signees:  32
From:  11 states

Alabama – 11
Georgia – 8
Florida – 3
Arkansas – 2
California – 2
Kansas – 1
Louisiana – 1
Mississippi – 1
Missouri – 1
South Carolina – 1
Texas – 1



Florida

Total Signees:  28
From:  8 states

Florida – 16
Georgia – 3
California – 2
Maryland – 2
New York – 2
Alabama – 1
Connecticut – 1
Pennsylvania – 1



Georgia

Total Signees:  19
From:  3 states

Georgia – 14
Florida – 4
South Carolina – 1



Kentucky

Total Signees:  26
From:  10 states

Georgia – 7
South Carolina – 4
Kentucky -3
Ohio – 3
Tennessee – 3
Florida – 2
Alabama – 1
California – 1
Mississippi – 1
Virginia – 1



LSU

Total Signees:  27
From:  9 states

Louisiana – 13
Georgia – 3
Texas – 3
Florida – 2
Mississippi – 2
Alabama – 1
Ohio – 1
Tennessee – 1
Virginia – 1



Mississippi State

Total Signees:  26
From:  5 states

Mississippi – 19
Alabama – 3
Texas – 2
Louisiana – 1
Tennessee – 1



Ole Miss

Total Signees:  24
From:  7 states

Mississippi – 10
Florida – 7
Alabama – 2
Georgia – 2
Arkansas – 1
Tennessee – 1
Virginia – 1



South Carolina

Total Signees:  23
From: 5 states

South Carolina – 7
Georgia – 6
Florida – 5
North Carolina – 3
Kansas – 2



Tennessee

Total Signees:  25
From:  12 states

Georgia – 6
Alabama – 3
California – 3
Florida – 2
Illinois – 2
South Carolina – 2
Tennessee – 2
Kansas – 1
Kentucky – 1
Mississippi – 1
Texas – 1
Virginia – 1



Vanderbilt

Total Signees:  24
From:  12 states

Georgia – 9
Alabama – 3
Florida – 2
Louisiana – 2
California – 1
Mississippi – 1
New Jersey – 1
Ohio – 1
South Carolina – 1
Tennessee – 1
Texas – 1
Virginia – 1



Observations:

* Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt are the only three SEC schools whose home state is NOT their top talent-producer.  Interestingly, all three schools had more signees from Georgia than any other state.

* Arkansas and Tennessee are the only schools in the conference to not get at least 25% of their talent from any one state.

* Mississippi State and Georgia each got a whopping 73% of their signees from inside their home states… followed by Florida (57%), LSU (48%), Ole Miss (41%), Alabama (34%), Auburn (34%) and South Carolina (30%).

* Georgia’s signees all came from just 3 states (Georgia, Florida and South Carolina).  Mississippi State and South Carolina signed talent from just five states each.

* Tennessee and Vanderbilt had to grab talent from 12 different states.  Auburn dipped into 11 states… Kentucky into 10.

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Continuing our breakdown of Signing Day 2010, here’s a look at the SEC-caliber talent produced by each league state… and who landed it.



Georgia

Total Signees:  65

To:  Georgia (14), Vanderbilt (9), Auburn (8), Kentucky (7), South Carolina (6), Tennessee (6), Alabama (5), Florida (3), LSU (3), Arkansas (2), Ole Miss (2)



Florida

Total Signees:  46

To:  Florida (16), Ole Miss (7), South Carolina (5), Georgia (4), Arkansas (3), Auburn (3), Kentucky (2), LSU (2), Tennessee (2), Vanderbilt (2)



Mississippi

Total Signees:  37

To:  MSU (19), Ole Miss (10), Alabama (2), LSU (2), Auburn (1), Kentucky (1), Tennessee (1), Vanderbilt (1)



Alabama

Total Signees:  36

To:  Auburn (11), Alabama (9), MSU (3), Tennessee (3), Vanderbilt (3), Arkansas (2), Ole Miss (2), Florida (1), Kentucky (1), LSU (1)



Louisiana

Total Signees:  19

To:  LSU (13), Arkansas (2), Vanderbilt (2), Auburn (1), MSU (1)



South Carolina

Total Signees:  17

To:  South Carolina (7), Kentucky (4), Tennessee (2), Alabama (1), Auburn (1), Georgia (1), Vanderbilt (1)



Tennessee

Total Signees:  12

To:  Alabama (3), Kentucky (3), Tennessee (2), LSU (1), MSU (1), Ole Miss (1), Vanderbilt (1)



Arkansas

Total Signees:  8

To:  Arkansas (5), Auburn (2), Ole Miss (1)



Kentucky

Total Signees:  4

To:  Kentucky (3), Tennessee (1)

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Recruiting is over for 2010 and coaches are already starting to line up commitments for 2011.  But before we put Signing Day 2010 completely to bed, let’s go back and see where the SEC’s talent came from.

Below you’ll find various charts and numbers showing you — among other things — which SEC states were mined by the most schools, which states across the country provided SEC teams with the most signees, which schools had to travel outside their own states most often, and where each league school went to lock up their signees.

It’s geekery to the Nth degree… which is just the way I like it.  Enjoy.

SEC programs signed 305 players on national signing day from a total of 25 different states.  Below, you’ll see which states (by percentage) produced the most SEC-caliber football players:

Observations:

* Georgia, not Florida, provided the most SEC signees in 2010.  And by a fairly wide margin, too.

* More than 60% of the signees in the SEC came from Georgia, Florida, Mississippi and Alabama.

* Texas (15) produced more SEC signees than league states Tennessee (12), Arkansas (8) and Kentucky (4).

* California (9) produced more signees than Arkansas (8).

* More SEC signees came from Ohio (5), North Carolina (5), and Oklahoma (5) than Kentucky (4).

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1.  This writer provides a weekly report card for the Alabama basketball team… which will lug a three-game losing streak into Rupp Arena tomorrow.

2.  LSU’s Trent Johnson says you can’t replace the NBA guys he lost last year with freshmen straight out of high school.

3.  Mississippi State’s team has a lot of issues right now… including the lack of a solid NCAA tourney resume.

4.  MSU kicks off a three-game stretch at home (where they’re undefeated in league play) against Ole Miss on Thursday.

5.  As for the Rebels, they need the MSU game, too, but a home game against Vandy on Saturday is even more critical.

6.  Out of 1,868 state employees in Arkansas, Bobby Petrino and John Pelphrey are the highest paid.  Big shock.

7.  The Razorbacks might be without Michael Washington against LSU on Wednesday due to a leg injury he suffered over the weekend against Auburn.

After the Texas squad’s 36-17 victory Saturday in the Texas vs. The Nation all-star game, Sporting News draft expert Russ Lande and his team of former NFL scouts identified the players who helped their draft status the most this past week in El Paso:

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The Alabama-Mississippi All-Star Classic has once again earned its title as the “Pipeline to…
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The No. 25-ranked Rebels overcame a 23-point second-half deficit and hit free throws at the end to beat Alabama 74-67 before 7,601 fans at Tad Smith Coliseum.
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The Crimson Tide blew a 23-point second half lead before falling 74-67 today against the 25th-ranked Rebels.
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By Cecil Hurt
Sports Editor

TUSCALOOSA | The University of Alabama men’s basketball team managed to end its streak of one-point losses on Saturday — only to find something worse.
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National signing day came and went Wednesday, proving again the myth that parity exists in college football. The same programs that dominate the recruiting rankings are the same ones who have controlled the game’s power for what seems like forever.

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They take on Alabama at 5 p.m., today at Tad Smith Coliseum.
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From combined reports

Tuscaloosa | The University of Alabama men’s basketball team hits the road to play its second game in three days when it faces No. 25 Ole Miss tonight.
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Sorry for the delay between posts.  I can assure you I’d have rather been uploading stories than driving four hours through a monsoon behind several people who’ve apparently never seen rain before… much less driven in it.

Here are a few of the bigger stories from across the SEC this afternoon:

1.  A special prosecutor who looked into the case involving three Arkansas basketball players who were accused of rape last fall has decided not to file charges.  This is the same decision that was reached by authorities shortly after the frat party incident occurred.

2.  Here’s a collection of recruiting class reviews from a number of different analysts.  The big surprise seems to have been Derek Dooley’s work at Tennessee.

3.  This writer breaks down the basketball race in the SEC West.

4.  New Ole Miss co-offensive coordinator Dave Rader said he’ll learn Houston Nutt’s system “and go from there.”

5.  Rader also said that for UM’s new quarterbacks “there’s nothing between them but air and opportunity.”

6.  Folks are still talking about Tim Tebow’s soon-to-air Super Bowl ad.  (Enough already.)

Jimmy Kimmel also had a little fun with the controversy last night:



7.  This Georgia writer/fan says “thank goodness for AJ Green and Orson Charles.”

8.  John Calipari asked his Kentucky team three questions during yesterday’s practice.

9.  John Wall and Devan Downey are among 11 finalists for the Bob Cousy Award.

10.  Tennessee has finally sealed the deal and hired Chuck Smith as defensive line coach.



In other news, it’s expected that Kentucky won’t make the hiring of receivers coach Tee Martin official until next week.

And just weeks after he turned them down, the name of Ole Miss defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix is once again being associated with Florida NEW search for a D coordinator to call their own.  (If Nix wouldn’t go the first time around, why would he go into what is now a “co-coordinator” job?)

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As I gear up for the drive home from Atlanta — thanks to Bob Neal and the “SportsNite” crew at CSS for hosting me last night, by the way — I thought I’d give you some things to think about.

Below are 10 SEC-related issues that I will be keeping a close eye on over the next three seasons.

Here’s goes:

1.  South Carolina in 2010 — It appears to be a now or never season for Steve Spurrier and the Cocks.  The big dogs in the East don’t look to be quite so big next year and the Gamecocks will have an edge with an experienced quarterback.

2.  Arkansas in 2010 — Folks here in Atlanta keep waiting for Bobby Petrino to skip town again.  If the Razorbacks can’t make progress with their defense this year, Petrino might start getting the itch to find an easier gig somewhere else.

3.  Tennessee vs Georgia — In the 1990s, two teams from the East won SEC titles (Florida and Tennessee).  In the 2000s, two teams from the East won SEC titles (Florida and Georgia).  History shows that the East usually has two dominant programs at a time.  There’s some uneasiness in both Athens and Knoxville these days.  Over the next three years we should get a clearer picture of which program will best compete with Florida over the long haul.

4.  Ole Miss vs Mississippi State — Houston Nutt and Dan Mullen are already firing small barbs at one another.  Both schools are trying to win the battle for in-state recruits.  Whichever school best takes control of the Magnolia State will be primed to potentially climb into the upper half of the SEC West on a regular basis.

5.  Kentucky vs Vanderbilt — Someone has to be at the bottom of the East.  The Vandy-UK rivalry is a lot closer historically than most folks realize.  And Bobby Johnson just put together his best recruiting class.  Can Vandy climb over the Wildcats long term?  They’ll have to start beating them on the field again to do so.

6.  LSU vs Auburn — Auburn appears to be on the rise while LSU has dropped nine games in the last two seasons.  One of these teams will be Alabama’s stiffest competition in the years ahead.  Which will it be?

7.  Florida vs Alabama — Florida was the SEC’s best in 2008.  Alabama was tops in 2009.  Let’s see which team does what in the next three seasons.  That’ll make it a “best-out-of-five” to claim “flagship program” status in the SEC.

8.  Les Miles vs Mark Richt — Richt is the dean of SEC coaches and that’s never a good place to be.  Miles is the guy who will always be compared to Nick Saban… and that’s not a good situation, either.  Which man will be the last standing?

9.  Which school will be the next first-timer to reach Atlanta — Ole Miss, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vanderbilt have never made it to an SEC Championship Game.  Which program will be the first to make it?

10.  Nick Saban vs Urban Meyer — Like Richt and Miles, there’s a battle here to see who survives the longest.  Will Meyer give in to stress and health concerns and walk away at some point in the next three years?  Will Saban pull a Pete Carroll and head back to the NFL to prove himself at that level?  Which great coach will outlast the other in the SEC?

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1.  Phillip Sims has the high school resume and the tools to become the best Alabama quarterback in a while.

2.  For the second game in a row, Bama lost a nailbiter… this one 66-65 to Florida last night.

3.  For the second game in a row, Alabama failed to get off a potential game-winning shot in the closing seconds.

4.  It was a case of the teacher (Billy Donovan) beating the pupil (Anthony Grant).

5.  Auburn cornerback Aairon Savage has been granted a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA.

6.  Recently-promoted offensive coordinator Garrick McGee earned his keep by leading Arkansas’ recruiting charge into Oklahoma.

7.  Former UA linebacker Khiry Battle will play at Memphis next year.

8.  John Pelphrey used some reverse psychology to spark the Hogs’ come-from-behind win at Georgia on Wednesday.

9.  Pelphey has been pushing a lot of correct buttons during the Razorbacks’ three-game win streak.

10.  Les Miles’ signing class looks to have filled a lot of needs.

11.  LSU made a valiant comeback late, but the Tigers still fell to Tennessee 59-54 last night…

12.  And dropped to 0-8 in the SEC in the process.

13.  The loss wasted a terrific 25-point effort from Bo Spencer.

14.  Reggie Buckner’s sprained ankle is getting better, but it’s still not certain that he’ll be back on the court for Ole Miss against Alabama on Saturday.

15.  Dan Mullen has done a good job recruiting Mississippi kids, but some feel he needs to broaden his approach.

16.  Here’s more on the Renardo Sidney situation.

17.  ESPN’s Andy Katz took up the Sidney issue, too.

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What’s the first thing many of you thought of when you read that headline?  Let me guess: “How ’bout his commitment to the Miami Dolphins!”

Okay, now that we’ve got that out of the way, the man did coach the Dolphins for a couple of years before leaving town, so it wasn’t like he just showed up and left.

And sure, he did say he wasn’t going to leave Miami for Alabama, but that’s the kind of thing all coaches say to keep from destroying their current lockerrooms.  So let’s put all of that aside and focus on what Saban had to say post-signing day about commitments:



“I’m old-fashioned.  I think a commitment is a commitment.

“We tell guys when they commit that we want the recruiting to be over or we really don’t want them to commit.  If you’re not really ready to stop recruiting, then you aren’t really ready to commit because committing means you are coming to that school.

“I would rather you go visit other schools until you’re sure that this is what you want to do rather than making a commitment and then not feeling comfortable and wanting to go explore other opportunities.

“There is an old saying, ‘If you’re shopping, then we should shop.’  It shouldn’t be that way, but when guys make commitments and then don’t stick up for them, then you kind of get stuck a little bit because there may be other guys that you didn’t recruit, that you could have recruited, that could have actually taken their place.

“I wish there was a better way, but there is not.  We’ll just have to manage it and keep recruiting guys and do the best we can with them.”



Sounds good.  In fact, Kevin Scarbinsky of The Birmingham News believes a policy/rule should be written based on Saban’s statements.

Mr. Scarbinsky writes: “In the recruiting world, your commitment, even if it’s verbal, should end your recruitment.  You don’t continue to pursue other schools, and they don’t continue to pursue you.”

That sounds good, too.  But it would be an impossible rule to enforce. 

There would be questions of whether or not a verbal commitment behind closed doors differs from a verbal commitment made in the media.

And what if a recruit gives a commitment only to see the NCAA begin and investigation of his fav school before signing day?  Shouldn’t he have the right to back out?

Mr. Scarbinsky is right that a “my word is my bond” recruiting rule would make life easier for everyone (including folks like us who try to cover the whims of 17-year-olds).  Unfortunately it’s just not practical.  As I’m sure he realizes. 

Still, there is iron in Saban’s words of life.  No signed paper can hold the iron.  It must come from men. 

(And yes I wrote that last line just so I could quote “The Outlaw Josey Wales.”)

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Hope you folks like our links, digits, grades, breakdowns and recruiting studies today.

I’m heading off to Atlanta where tonight I’ll be a guest on “SportsNite” with Bob Neal.  If you want to see someone who should NOT be on television, you can catch the show at 6pm on CSS.

I’m just thankful to be invited.

Our recruiting guru, Josh Ward, should be fully recuperated from yesterday and posting some more recruiting updates here this afternoon.

And if any breaking news should occur, we’ll have it for you right here.

Til then… have a good rest of your morning and afternoon.

John

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For the past four years, I’ve been trying to see just how much having a top-ranked recruiting class correlates to winning football games.

We all know that the recruiting services miss on guys.  So do coaches.

Some five-star guys never pan out.  Some no-star guys make all-conference.  So just how much emphasis should fans put on recruiting rankings? 

Should they ignore them?  No.  And we’ll show you why.

Should they then consider them gospel?  Also no.  And we’ll also show you why.



In studying recruiting numbers from the SEC dating back to 2002, I’ve found that these rankings should be thought of a bit like a raffle.  The more raffle tickets you buy, the better your odds of winning.  Likewise, the more five-star signees you lock up, the more likely one or two of them will pan out.

Examining the numbers, I’ve found that recruiting rankings can give fans a general idea of their program’s direction.  Like a compass.  There will always be exceptions, but if you eye the “ballpark” in which your program sits, you can get a good feel for how it will do inside the conference in an upcoming season.

These rankings are not a GPS system.  Signing one all-star class will NOT guarantee a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.

But let me show you what I mean.



To break things down, I began by looking at the 2006 season.  I tossed out the non-conference games (because not everyone plays an equal schedule) and focused entirely on SEC in-conference games.

Then, to see how each team was built, I tallied up their recruiting rankings (via Rivals.com) for the five years leading up to the 2006 season.  2002 would include a team’s fifth-year seniors… while 2006 would include the program’s true freshmen.

By 2006 some folks would have flunked out, been kicked off, transferred, been injured, or left school early for the pros.  I know this.  But again, we’re talking about generalities here.  The more talent signed over a five-year period, the better off a team should do.

As you’ll see below, the rankings do seem to matter… when you look in “ballpark” terms. 

The best team over a five-year period might not have the best conference record.  But the four best teams in recruiting WOULD have a better conference record than any other bunches of SEC teams.

Here’s what I mean:

Above you see how each SEC team ranked in terms of recruiting for each year from 2002 through 2006.  I added up the Rivals’ yearly rankings and ranked the teams (in red) based on their recruiting haul over a five-year period.  Each school’s actual conference record is at right.

As you can see, there is no direct correlation between a team’s recruiting and its on-field performance.  Schedule, injuries and a dozen other factors play a role in wins and losses.



But look at the results when you simply look at the schools by their “ballpark” finish in recruiting:

Georgia, Florida, LSU and Tennessee combined to go 22-10 in conference play.  That’s a winning clip of 68.7%

Auburn, Carolina, Alabama and Arkansas finished in the middle of the recruiting pack.  Their SEC record in 2006 was a combined 18-14 (56.2%)

The bottom four teams in recruiting over that five-year span were Ole Miss, MSU, Kentucky and Vandy.  They went 8-24 in SEC play in 2006 for a 25.0% winning mark.



So does that “ballpark” view of recruiting rankings work over the long haul?  Uh-huh.

Here’s 2007:

The teams with the best recruiting rankings from 2003-2007 were Florida, Georgia, LSU and Tennessee.  They went a combined 23-9 in league play in ‘07 (71.8%).

The middle of the pack’ers in recruiting were Auburn, Carolina, Alabama and Arkansas who went 16-16 (50.0%).

And the bottom four were Ole Miss, MSU, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  They went a combined 9-23 (28.1%).



Here’s 2008:

The top four recruiting rankings from 2004-2008 belonged to Florida, Georgia, LSU and Alabama.  They went 24-8 in 2008 (75.0%).

The middle four in recruiting were Auburn, Tennessee, USC and Ole Miss who went 14-18 in league play (43.7%).

The bottom four ranked teams were Arkansas, MSU, Kentucky and Vandy who went 10-22 in SEC games (31.2%).



Fast forward to last season, 2009:

From 2005 through 2009 the teams with the best five-year recruiting rankings were Florida, Georgia, Alabama and LSU.  They finished last season 25-7 in the SEC (78.1%).

The middle four recruiting hauls belonged to Auburn, Tennessee, USC and Ole Miss who recorded a combined league record of 14-18 (43.7%).

And the bottom four teams in terms of recruiting rankings were Arkansas, MSU, Kentucky and Vandy who tallied a 9-23 league mark last year (28.1%).



Remember, we’re looking at the four teams grouped together by their recruiting rankings over a five-year period… not the final conference standings.

The fact that the top four teams in recruiting almost always win 67-75% of their conference games is an interesting find.

Ditto the facts the the middle four in recruiting usually win about 50% of their SEC games and the bottom four in recruiting usually win about 30% of their conference games.



If you add up all of the numbers over the past four years, here’s the result:

The Top 4 in Recruiting Rankings from 2002-2009 — 94-34 in SEC play (73.4%)

The Middle 4 in Recruiting Rankings from 2002-2009 — 62-66 in SEC play (48.4%)

The Bottom 4 in Recruiting Rankings from 2002-2009 — 36-92 in SEC play (28.1%)

So is there a direct correlation between a team’s five-year recruiting haul and its final in-conference record?  No.  But when you step back and see where a team ranks in regards to its rivals, you can get a feel for the general direction in which the team is headed.



So what should we expect for 2010?

Well, the four best schools in terms of recruiting rankings from 2006 through yesterday’s class are Florida, Alabama, LSU and Georgia.  Based on past results, it’s likely those teams will combine to win about 70% of their conference games this fall.

The middle four schools in terms of recruiting are Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina and Ole Miss.  If history repeats, those schools will combine to win about 50% of their SEC games this fall.

And the four programs who fared the worst in recruiting from 2006 to 2010 are Arkansas, MSU, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  You can look for them to combine to win about 30% of their conference games.



Again, recruiting rankings aren’t a GPS system showing you exactly where your favorite team will finish in 2010. 

But they do serve as a compass. 

Look at what your team has done over the past five signing days and you’ll get a ballpark idea of the direction your school is headed this fall.

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So what grades are we handing out to the coaching staffs across the SEC today?  Well, we could just give our thoughts based on the final team rankings provided by the major scouting services.

But what fun would that be?  Plus, not all of the SEC’s coaches were playing on an even field.  So taking into consideration “degree of difficulty,” here’s how we ranked the work of the league’s coaches:



Florida / Rivals rank: 2 / Urban Meyer = A
Meyer signed an unbelievable class and did so despite rumors swirling about his future.  But he’s already got one of the nation’s best programs and he’s based in a talent-laden state.

Auburn / Rivals rank: 4 / Gene Chizik = A+
Chizik’s hire drew laughs a year ago.  Not now.  With a staff built for the recruiting game, Chizik has Auburn competing with the big boys across the country… and most importantly with the monster across the state.  Chizik’s crew also Tiger Prowl’ed their way into just about every SEC state to steal someone of note.  A stellar, stellar job.

Alabama / Rivals rank: 5 / Nick Saban = A
Saban has the Tide — like Florida — rolling.  He’s also in a talent-rich state.  This year he could simply pick and choose and target areas of need.  Saban doesn’t get an A+, but I’m guessing he could have gotten one if he needed it.

LSU / Rivals rank: 6 / Les Miles = A
Miles needed this one.  He needed the last-minute converts from other programs.  As Saban has risen, LSU’s fortunes have fallen off.  Getting a better than expected class should keep the wolves from howling… at least until fall.  The best news for Miles is that he owns the state of Louisiana and 2011 looks to be a great year for in-state prospects.

Tennessee / Rivals rank: 9 / Derek Dooley = A+
Dooley gets a top mark because of degree of difficulty.  He got the UT job less than three weeks before signing day.  He didn’t have a full coaching staff.  Lane Kiffin (and the rest of the SEC) were trying to sway Vol commitments.  And his state’s recruiting base is weak.  Still Dooley pulled a Top 10 class and swiped the #1 player from the state of Georgia.  There’s no other grade but A+ to give.

Georgia / Rivals rank: 16 / Mark Richt = C
Based on the type of athlete Georgia brought in, Richt deserves an A.  But he didn’t bring in many.  And those he did land lack the kind of star power that make recruiting analysts go ga-ga.  A bigger concern — as we pointed out yesterday — is the fact that that other schools (Auburn, Tennessee) are finding it easier to raid the Peach State for four- and five-star players.  Miles got a boost from recruiting… Richt did not.

Ole Miss / Rivals Rank: 17 / Houston Nutt = B+
Nutt closed with a flurry as he often does.  He’s not a guy that believes in early commitments.  He also made a comeback inside his home state to nab most of the top in-state talent.  A good day for Nutt.

South Carolina / Rivals rank: 25 / Steve Spurrier = C
Spurrier hit a home run in landing Marcus Lattimore.  But overall, Clemson still grabbed more of the top guns from inside the state.  Also, take Lattimore away from this class and tell me what you have.  Spurrier says the class will feel needs.  Maybe so.  But on paper, it’s not great.

Mississippi State / Rivals rank: 38 / Dan Mullen = B+
Dan Mullen talks a good game and he backed it up with his recruiting haul.  Oh, there are few true stars in the bunch, but again, Mullen faces a higher degree of difficulty than the school to his north.  He came close to equaling UM’s pull among the state’s Top 25 players.  That’s a positive for a guy leading one of only two SEC schools to not reach a bowl last year.

Arkansas / Rivals rank: 48 / Bobby Petrino = C
The Razorbacks targeted defense and they landed a pair of four-star defensive tackles.  Petrino fight an uphill battle in the state of Arkansas, but there is some talent that he allowed to escape — Michael Dyer for example.

Kentucky / Rivals Rank: 49 / Joker Phillips = C-
Phillips did edge past Charlie Strong at Louisville, but Kentucky should have had a better year.  They had some stability, the Cardinals did not.  UK was coming off another bowl game, Louisville was coming off another bowl loss.  The Cats landed just one four-star recruit.  The Bluegrass State doesn’t have a lot of talent — but as we wrote yesterday — Phillips needs to start drawing the best in-state players to Lexington.

Vanderbilt / Rivals Rank: 61 / Bobby Johnson = B+
How can I give Johnson such a good grade?  For one, he just signed the best class Vandy’s landed in years.  For another, we’re talking about Vandy.  Johnson is the anti-Nutt, locking up commitments early and often.  Credit to him for holding on to most of them.

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1.  Alabama didn’t pick up any surprises on signing day… but they didn’t need to.

2.  Two of the Tide’s big name signees are already getting to work.

3.  Alabama’s signing class includes seven defensive backs.

4.  Here’s a breakdown of everyone UA signed.

5.  The Bama basketball team will be looking for a big win against Florida tonight.

6.  Billy Donovan sees “a lot of similarities” between his own background and Anthony Grant’s.

7.  Gene Chizik wants folks to know that Auburn’s Top 5 class is “the first building block of a foundation that is going to take us some time to build.”

8.  Here’s a look at the Tigers’ signees.

9.  AU had to wait a while, but they got two of their best signees late.

10.  This writer believes Tiger fans need to remember that these top recruits will need to be developed and coached well, too.

11.  One recruiting analyst said, “I’m not sure that when Gene Chizik was hired, there was an expectation that Auburn would be recruiting with the top teams in the country.”

12.  This writer breaks down the AU class with a series of Top 5 lists.

13.  The goal was defense for Bobby Petrino on national signing day.

14.  The class includes five defensive linemen.

15.  Here’s a quickie look at the Razorbacks’ signees.

16.  Don’t look know, but John Pelphrey’s basketball team just won it’s third game in a row, 72-68 at Georgia last night.

17.  Once again the Hogs fell behind by double-digits and once again Courtney Fortson brought ‘em back.

18.  A strong finish made for a better signing day than expected in Baton Rouge.

19.  This writer believes Les Miles realizes that the 2010 and 2011 classes will have to be the foundation for his future success.

20.  Two players expected to sign with LSU didn’t… but there are reasons for both.

21.  Here’s a look at the guys Miles signed.

22.  The Tiger basketball team will be looking for answers when they try to get their first SEC win at home against Tennessee tonight.

23.  Trent Johnson says his team just needs “a guy to make a shot.”

24.  Ole Miss climbed in the national recruiting rankings thanks to a strong finish and a stronger-than-usual showing in its home state.

25.  Two players are on campus and in school though neither will count toward this signing class.

26.  UM’s focus was on the defensive side of the ball.

27.  Did Houston Nutt take a subtle jab at Mississippi State yesterday?

28.  Speaking of MSU, the Bulldogs did a good job in the Magnolia State, too.

29.  Mullen fired a shot at “the school up north” regarding the number of Mississippians who’ve signed with State over the last two years.

30.  MSU fell behind by 14 before rallying in Nashville last night… but they could get no closer than  a 75-72 Bulldog loss.

31.  Rick Stansbury said “this is one of the better Vanderbilt teams” that he’s seen “in a long time.”

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