If we were having a conversation about conference expansion and I uttered the word “location,” you might roll your eyes.  ”If San Diego State can land in the Big East and Florida State and West Virginia could land in the Big 12, location is irrelevant,” you might counter.

Ah, but proximity to current schools in a conference is probably the least important aspect of location during short-term feeding frenzies (long-term, proximity does seem to matter and we’ll have more on that later) .  No, location matters in terms of a school’s nearest television market, it’s state’s population (for cable household purposes), and it’s recruiting grounds.

In 2010, we took a numbers-based look at possible SEC expansion.  You can read that here.  Last fall, we updated our data and took another look-see.  You can start reading that series here.  The final part of that series as well as links to all the parts in between can be found right here.

Today, Tony Barnhart of CBSSports.com examines many of those small programs that are announcing — daily it seems — that they’re planning a jump to the FBS level of the football world.  Specifically, he looks at Charlotte, Georgia State, Old Dominion, Texas-San Antonio and Appalachian State (an FCS school that wants to follow those others up the ladder).  What he found was that location, location, location matters more than just about anything else.

As Barnhart points out:

* Charlotte won’t play its first football game at any level until 2013.  By 2015, it’s already set to join Conference USA.  Why?  Charlotte is located in he 25th biggest television market in the country.

* Georgia State will be playing its third season of football this fall and it will jump to the FBS level and join the Sun Belt Conference.  Why?  Because Georgia State is located in the Atlanta television market as well as the recruiting hotbed of Georgia.

* Old Dominion has been playing football for just three seasons, but it will be joining Charlotte in Conference USA in 2015.  Why?  ODU is located in a Top 50 television market (Norfolk) and the Tidewater section of Virginia is rich in high school talent.

* Texas-San Antonio played its first season of college football last year.  It will play in the WAC this season before moving — sign of the times — to Conference USA in 2013.  Why?  San Antonio is the 36th biggest TV market in the country and I think we all know just how many recruits there are in Texas.

Sure they’re fledgling programs, but conferences are ready to snap them up because they provide inroads into good recruiting territory, populous areas, and sizeable television markets.

But then there’s Appalachian State.  Located in tiny Boone, North Carolina — population: 14,138 — the Mountaineers will mark their 85th year of football this year.  From 2005 through 2007, ASU won three straight FCS national titles.  They knocked off Michigan in Ann Arbor in ’07.  They led all FCS-level schools in attendance last season.  And they’ve made it know that they want to take a step up in class.

Only no one’s called them.  Conference USA and the Sun Belt would rather have the deep recruiting zones and television viewers provided by newborn programs than the proven football school located in a small, mountainous region of the Tarheel State.

As Barnhart points out, Appy State might still eventually land an invite into either C-USA or the Sun Belt, but as of now, those leagues are more interested in location than they are on-field proof of performance.

A year ago, we were bombarded with emails from West Virginia fans who were angry that we suggest WVU’s location wasn’t likely good enough to provide the SEC — or as it turns out the ACC — with what those conferences were looking for in terms of recruiting zones, total population, and television eyeballs.    That wasn’t a knock on WVU’s program which landed safely in the more distant, but once again strong Big 12.  It was simply a statement of fact.

And the fact is… location, location, location matters when it comes to conference expansion.  Whether that’s at the top of the food chain or the bottom of the food chain, as Barnhart points out in his latest column.

The BCS title game is set and it features a rematch of a regular season game between two teams from the same conference, one of whom technically didn’t win a single prize all year.

To folks inside that conference — the SEC — it’s no big deal.  To people outside the South, it’s darn near conniption time.  For that reason, none other than NCAA president Mark Emmert expects the current BCS system to get a few more tweaks this offseason:


“After this season, I think there will be the beginning of a great debate on what the model looks like.  It’s changed a couple of times in its short history and I wouldn’t be surprised if it changed again.”


When asked if a playoff might be in the offing, Emmert said no.


“That becomes a demand that is physically enormous for these students.  It becomes a huge academic strain on them because you’re playing ball right through final and into the next semester.”


Someone might want to inform the prez that the 2011-12 FCS playoff schedule began November 26th and runs right through its championship game on January 7th of next year.

Double-talk and excuses aside, the best fans can hope for is a plus-one model at this point.  And a seeded plus-one model — a Football Final Four, if you will — should allow any squad with a legitimate claim at the title to vie for it on the field.

Boy the rumors and reports are flying today.  I can’t type a word before someone else makes a new claim.

Pete Thamel of The New York Times is now reporting that West Virginia has “applied and are accepted” into the Big 12 “leaving only legal entanglements from making the move official.”

The fact that WVU is already accepted — if Thamel’s source is correct — shows that Missouri is already “unofficially” out the door.  But according to Thamel:

“Legal problems are holding up Missouri’s move, as it has to negotiate an exit fee, and there is a concern among Big 12 teams about how to fill the void in their schedules that Missouri would leave.  That creates two problems, as universities will have to scramble to find another opponent, perhaps from the Football Championship Subdivision.  A victory over a team from that level would not count toward a Big 12 member’s bowl eligibility.  It will also cause the Big 12 to fall short of fulfilling its television contract.  Both could be costly for the league.”

(Technically, the NCAA allows one win against an FCS school to count toward bowl eligibility, depending on the situation.)

Thamel also reports that the Big 12 is planning to stick at 10 schools for now.  (Talk of a push to 16 teams is nonsense.)

Isn’t it amazing how schools can jump from the Big 12 and MWC to the Pac-12, from the Big 12 to the Big Ten, and from the Big East to the ACC without massive threats of lawsuits?  Yet let anyone talk to the SEC and they’re going to be forced to lawyer-up.

At this point, Missouri is still trying to work out its departure from the Big 12.  As stated earlier, we still believe MU will be able to buy its way out of that league and we believe MU will be playing in the SEC East in 2012.  That’s the goal for all involved.

A collapse of the Big East would certainly speed up the process, though, allowing WVU to fill Mizzou’s slot in the Big 12 as soon as possible.  Anybody else out there want to finish off the Big East?

Football coaches are well known for talking up their opponents.  Lou Holtz, for example, used to be a master of that art. 

Apparently Dan Mullen is working on an advanced degree in puffery, too.  Check out what Mississippi State’s coach has to say about Kentucky, his Bulldogs’ foe on Saturday:


“One of the issues has been turnover ratio and I think that is what’s giving them their negative results.  All of a sudden, you take away their turnovers and they’re a pretty hot team right now.”


A pretty hot team?  UK did whip FCS-level Jacksonville State 38-14 over the weekend and they did pile up 445 yards of offense.

But out of 120 teams nationally, Kentucky ranks…


118th in total offense
117th in first downs
116th in passing offense
114th in 3rd down conversions
111th in scoring offense
107th in red zone conversions
106th in rushing defense
104th in turnover margin (a checkmark for Mullen on that one)
 

A pretty hot team?

1.  Florida’s John Brantley won’t take part in practice this week, but it’s still possible he’ll return for next week’s Georgia game.

2.  The Gators haven’t been giving Brantley’s backups enough support during UF’s three-game losing streak.

3.  Freshman corner Marcus Roberson is facing an underage drinking charge. 

4.  Georgia’s Isaiah Crowell hopes a week off will give his bum wrist time to heal.

5.  Winning five games in a row hasn’t silenced all of Mark Richt’s critics.

6.  Linebacker Danny Trevathan has been one of the few bright spots for Kentucky this season.

7.  UK players were shocked to see that USA Today and odds-maker Danny Sheridan had made them a 9-point underdog to FCS-level Jacksonville State.  Turns out the listing was a mistake.

8.  The South Carolina team took the news of Marcus Lattimore’s season-ending injury hard.

9.  It sounds like Lattimore’s recovery will be a lengthy one.

10.  Look for Bruce Ellington to take on a bigger role for the Cocks.  (Good thing Steve Spurrier poached him.  Again, kidding.)

11.  After half a season of off-target shotgun snaps, Tennessee will be switching centers… just in time for a date with Alabama’s wicked defense.

12.  Defensive back Prentiss Waggner will be moving from safety to corner this week, too.

13.  Vanderbilt coaches have put in extra work preparing for Army’s triple-option offense.

This weekend, Georgia will face FCS-level Coastal Carolina.  If you watch the game — yeah, right — you may recognize the Chanticleers head coach David Bennett.  Earlier this month, ESPN picked up this one-minute clip from a Bennett presser and aired it repeatedly.  From there the video went viral on the internet.

In case you haven’t seen it, here’s Bennett’s explanation for why he wants his players to act more like dogs and less like cats:






Man.  Wouldn’t you like to spend 15 minutes in a room with Bennett and former Vandy coach Robbie Caldwell?

The Week Two odds have been set out in the desert.  Below you’ll find the lines from:

* The Las Vegas Sports Consultants

* The Las Vegas Hilton

* The MGM/Mirage Casinos

* The Caesars/Harrah’s Casinos

The favorites are in italics.

The games featuring Ole Miss and LSU aren’t on the boards because their opponents are from the FCS level.

The college football season is underway and a pair of SEC teams already have wins under their belts.  But they sure got those win in very different ways.


Mississippi State 59, Memphis 14

Quick Take:  No one should get too carried away with a win over miserable Memphis, but State fans have reason to smile this morning.  Vick Ballard ran for 166 yards and three TDs while Chris Relf threw for 202 yards and a pair of long, beautiful scoring strikes… all in just three quarters of action.  It was a feel-good start for a program that’s been doing a lot of feeling good since Dan Mullen arrived.

Relf, Ballard sine as MSU offense picks up where it left off

Mississippi State rolls past Memphis

Mullen dwells on “teaching moments” after easy win

Bulldogs Notebook: Defensive youngsters litter field for State

Mississippi State: Talking points from Memphis win



Kentucky 14, Western Kentucky 3

Quick Take:  Does the word “retch” mean anything to you?  There’s not much to be gained by scheduling teams from the FCS-level or the bottom of the FBS-level.  While UK’s defense did the job, there’s the obvious caveat of: Yeah, but it was against one of the 10 worst teams in the country.  But there was no way to spin any positives out of UK’s offensive performance.  Where have you gone, Randall Cobb?  Heck, where have you gone Mike Hartline?  (Kudos to the less than 25,000 fans who showed up to watch such a boring football game.)

Kentucky football overcomes WKU 14-3

Kentucky struggles past WKU in season opener

Kentucky wins, but not the way it expected

Well, at least it was a Kentucky win

“It’s better to be 1-0 than 0-1″

Gearing up for Tennessee’s season opener on Saturday, Derek Dooley shared a new analogy with the Knoxville press today:


“A lot of new guys.  Got to teach them what it means to prepare.  I equated it to every day you’re depositing money in your bank account — every day.  The investment that you put in physically, the investment you put in mentally is a deposit.

On gameday, you withdraw it all.  So, the more you deposit during the week, the more money you’re going to have on gameday to play well.

Today we put a pretty good deposit in and we’ll see if we can keep it going all week.”


Dooley’s Vols will host FCS-level Montana in their opener on Saturday evening.

They consistently compete for national championships.  They went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan.  They would allow the SEC to dip a toe into the state of North Carolina.

Maybe the SEC should make Appalachian State the league’s 14th school.  An Appy State committee voted yesterday to recommend a move from the FCS to the FBS.  That’s just Step One in the process, however.

And, yes, we’re kidding about the SEC inviting the Mountaineers to enter the league.  (Though we do wish them the best in trying to move up the ladder.)