For months, we’ve blown off the rumors of Florida State and Clemson jumping to the Big 12.  When it was reported in the last week that a secret deal was already in place for the Noles and Tigers to move, we scoffed.  Most any journalist who actually signs his name to his work did.  Oh, at the time we gave it the standard, “Never say never,” (now you see why) and we admitted that ADs and presidents often lie.

But we at MrSEC.com spoke to sources at SEC schools who thought realignment was slowing down, not speeding up.  We spoke with officials from two ACC schools who we have connections to and they both thought the talk of FSU/Clemson to the Big 12 was absolutely bonkers.  ESPN had just cooked up new television deals for both those leagues.  Why would they do that if they thought all that work could soon go up in smoke?  Even Orangebloods.com — the Rivals site that covers Texas — had repeatedly called the idea a “longshot” and like, oh, so many others had said there had been no contact between Big 12 officials and the folks from Florida State and Clemson.

Add to this 20 years of Florida State officials talking about how partnering with ACC schools had helped their own academic image and it was hard to imagine the FSU administration backtracking.  Plus, the commissioners of all the conferences are currently working on what’s expected to be a new postseason playoff plan.  Seems like it would be difficult to agree on a plan if you don’t even know who’ll be playing where in a couple of years.

So we were inclined to buy it — for once — when FSU athletic director Randy Spetman said this on Friday:

“We’re in the ACC. We’re committed to the ACC.  That’s where our president and the board of trustees has committed to, so we’re great partners in the ACC.”

Well, uh, no.  At least that’s not the case according to the outgoing chairman of Florida State’s board of trustees, Andy Haggard.  On Saturday, he completely cut the legs out from under his school’s athletic director, the Atlantic Coast Conference, and ACC/FSU television partner, ESPN.  Hell, Haggard sawed through more legs than a Civil War doctor.  His barrage against his own league and — by default — his own athletic director was epic.

He was ticked that the ACC gave away its Tier 3 rights for football to ESPN while holding on to its basketball rights:

“It’s mind-boggling and shocking.  How can the ACC give up third tier rights for football but keep them for basketball?… It continues the perception that the ACC favors the North Carolina schools.”

(Remember that part.  It’s important.)

As for the long-held argument made time and again by the “Knowledge is Good” crowd in Tallahassee that ACC + FSU = Win, Haggard scoffed:

“No FSU graduate puts on his resume or interviews for a job saying they are in the same conference as Duke and Virginia.  Conference affiliation really has no impact on academics.”

And then he dropped the bomb that yes indeedy he wants Florida State to start talking to the Big 12:

“How do you not look into that option?  On behalf of the Board of Trustees I can say that unanimously we would be in favor of seeing what the Big 12 might have to offer.  We have to do what is in Florida State’s best interest… With the SEC making the kind of money it does it’s time to act.  You can’t sit back and be content in the ACC.  This is a different time financially.  This isn’t 10-15 years ago when money was rolling in.”

“On behalf of the Board of Trustees I can say that unanimously.”  Really?

Boom.  (And we ain’t talkin’ Will Muschamp.)

We’ll break this down from a few different angles below, but that’s just an amazing interview for Haggard to have given Warchant.com — the Rivals site covering FSU — just one day after his own school’s athletic director had said the complete and total opposite.  We know — we’ve written it — ADs lie.  You can call it spinning if you like, but technically, they lie.  Often.  Still, they’re usually not outed within 24 hours by their own top trustee.

Just remarkable.

Even more amazing?  Seminoles football coach Jimbo Fisher — who sources had pegged as a pro-ACC guy — told The Orlando Sentinal post-Haggard’s rant:

“There have been no official talks, but I think you always have to look out there to see what’s best for Florida State.  If that [jumping to the Big 12] is what’s best for Florida State,then that’s what we need to do.”

If Haggard dropped Fat Man, Fisher unloaded Little Boy.  Both fell right into the laps of Spetman and the ACC.

Some thoughts:

It seems the tail’s been wagging the dog at FSU

You would think Haggard would be pretty clued in to the ACC/ESPN television contract.  He’s FSU’s top trustee until his term ends — reportedly — at the next board meeting.  But like so many others in the last few days, he was actually all wrong regarding those hotly-debated Tier 3 rights.

Jim Lamar of The Tallahassee Democrat reports that ACC assistant commissioner Michael Kelly said Saturday that all ACC schools have the exact same Tier 3 rights.  Moreover, all the men’s basketball and football games go to ESPN.  Now, that won’t put any more cash in FSU’s coffers, but the idea of the basketball schools being given an advantage?  Unless Kelly is lying — and the contracts would be pretty hard to forge — Haggard was 100% off base on that front.

Which makes this writer wonder just how connected to this process he’s been.  Could that be the source of his anger?  Is this an Arab Spring type of moment we’re witnessing, driven by rumors, exaggerations, anonymous blogs and social media?

Think about it:  The ACC cuts a deal with ESPN.  One blog drives the story that FSU and the Big 12 are talking.  Somebody floats their rage over the Tier 3 rights on a messageboard or two.  It hits Twitter.  An outgoing, left-out (and possibly angry about it) Haggard sees all this and decides to do a number on his own AD and ESPN because he  believes what he sees in the blogosphere, the messageboards and Twitter.  But then it turns out that a good part of his spiel is based on faulty information.  ”They’re favoring the North Carolina schools!”  Uh, no, actually they’re not.

Additionally, FSU reportedly made all of a whopping $350,000 last year on its Tier 3 rights.  In other words, it’s not like the new deal with ESPN is really going to cost the Florida State a whole lot of cabbage.  It wasn’t making it under the old deal, either.

Trouble is — the damage is already done.

What can the ACC say now?

Nothing.  There is no way back from what Haggard’s done.  Perhaps as an attorney and uber-booster he knew all along he could drive FSU to the Big 12 by simply opening his mouth.  Trustees at Missouri forced chancellor Brady Deaton’s hand last year.  Key boosters and trustees led the charge for Texas A&M to join the SEC, too.

The ACC has already come out to declare that the deal is even-Steven for everyone.  They’ve said the perception of uneven Tier 3 rights is “totally inaccurate”.  Kelly also said, “There is no change in fundamental rights at this time.  ESPN does have the rights to all of our football and all of our men’s basketball games.  There is no opportunity for our conference or our schools to produce games beyond that in those two sports.”

So it’s the exact same deal ESPN and the ACC had put together years ago.  They just extended it.

Some FSU fans won’t care, though (and that number grows every time a guy like Haggard spreads inaccurate information about the deal that was cut).  The deal may be even, but it’s still worth $3 million less per year than what other schools in other conferences are making.  Nevermind the fact that if the Seminoles had been winning as much as the ACC expected when it brought them in, the league’s contract would’ve probably paid a whole lot better.

Ironically, the ACC’s spring meetings begin today in Amelia Island, Florida.  Oh, that should be a fun event.  Especially for Spetman, who thanks to Haggard, will arrive without the use of this testicles.

What can Spetman do?

Call Bill Byrne at Texas A&M, perhaps?  Call a realtor?

Spetman’s been emasculated by his school’s top money man.  Whether he’s the chairman of the board or just Johnny Millions, Haggard will continue to have clout via six-inch sheets of green paper.  Lots of ‘em.  And clearly he’s not in the same corner as his athletic director when it come to the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Worse, nothing Spetman says from this point forward can ever be believed again.  Literally.  He was either a liar regarding FSU’s interest in the Big 12 (and was outed quicker than most lying ADs) or he is just a stooge standing in front of the real power brokers on FSU’s board (which is closer to the truth for most athletic directors, including Spetman).

He may stay in Tallahassee and Haggard may be discredited as having gone rogue, but Spetman’s credibility is kaput.  Dunzo.  Finito.

What can FSU do to save face?

Florida State president Eric Barron put out a press release Saturday night trying to calm the storm (or cover up whatever’s happening behind the scenes):

Naturally, the Big 12′s already interested

There will be a lot of “told ya so’s” coming from the crowd that said a deal had already been struck between FSU and the Big 12.  By all accounts that’s not true.  Sources from Lubbock to Austin to Tallahassee have all said there’s been no contact between the parties and that the Big 12 hasn’t even talked expansion with its new commissioner Bob Bowlsby.

You can bet they’ll talk about it now.

Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports immediately responded to the Haggard/Warchant.com story by Tweeting that a Big 12 source said, “I can’t imagine how we wouldn’t be interested in Florida State.”  He went on to say that there’s “legit concern in ACC” that Miami may also try to leave if FSU goes.

Where’s ESPN’s coverage of this?

The chairman of Florida State’s board of trustees just said he wants the Big 12 to give the Seminoles a ring and as of midnight this morning, ESPN.com did not have the story as one of its featured frontpage headlines.  Hmmm.  That wouldn’t be because Haggard’s statements make the ACC/ESPN deal look bad, would it?

Or maybe ESPN is just hoping/praying that the deals it negotiated with the Big 12 — paying it a higher-then expected fee just to keep it together — and the ACC — extending its deal through the late 2020′s — aren’t going to be tossed into the trash heap just yet.  ”Ignore it, maybe the story will go away.”

The Dude abides

Hey, we at MrSEC.com have been right on a lot of things regarding conference expansion.  So right in fact that a lot of other sites have copied our material and then patted themselves on the back for getting our predictions and theories right.  But we can admit when we were wrong.

In this case, “The Dude of WV,” a blogger who won’t sign his name to his posts, had heard from someone who knew some FSU backers were ready to move.  Kudos.

Now, the “done deal” part of the story, well, that’s pretty much been shot down by everyone who a) has legitimate sources and b) signs his name to his posts.  Still, we didn’t think this was coming.  We trusted our sources.  On FSU’s interest in the Big 12 — or at least in one very influential man’s interest — those sources were wrong.  Which means we were wrong.  Which means we tip our hat to the unknown West Virginia fan who tossed his horseshoe a lot closer to the stake than most anyone else on this FSU/Big 12 thing.

Blankety-Blank, Blankety-Blank

Speaking of our sources, I followed up with a good friend who happens to be in a pretty high-up position with an ACC school’s administration.  After being told repeatedly for the last week that folks in the league really did feel good about the future and that FSU officials were A-OK with the new ESPN deal, I zipped him a text this afternoon: “What gives?”

His response?

Well, I can’t tell you exactly what he said because this is a family site.  But I can give you the gist.  The folks at his school were not happy.  They were blindsided.  And Haggard was viewed as a “petulant child” — that is a quote — for his outburst.

Academics don’t matter

Perhaps to Haggard academics don’t matter, but to most top dogs at major universities, they sure as heck do.  No school has left the Big Ten, Pac-12 or ACC in decades in order to move to a richer league with a worse academic reputation.  If FSU heads to the Big 12, it will be the first.

The grant and research money that can be brought in for schools via cooperative programs such as the Big Ten’s Committee on Institutional Cooperation is enormous.  Try more than $500 million each year.  

A school like Florida with its $100,000 athletic budget?  UF recieves more than $550 million annually in sponsored research funding.

Academics might not matter to Haggard and they might not matter to Florida State (despite 20 years of saying just the opposite).  There might not be enough shared academic/research cash in the ACC to give FSU pause in the first place.

But for a man to suggest conference affiliation doesn’t have anything do with academics?  He sounds like a guy who was born rich and didn’t have to do a lot of homework of his own in college.

We’ve talked to so many university officials over the years who’ve said that getting “name” schools into a league is big, big, big for the pointy heads running those schools.  If academics didn’t matter, why has the SEC been promoting Missouri and Texas A&M’s AAU status non-stop since they climbed aboard?

The Big 12 would be catching a big fish

If the Big 12 lands Florida State, that’s a win for Bowlsby’s league and a loss for Mike Slive’s.  Missouri has a better academic reputation, solid athletics, and will bring in a lot of new cable households in a brand new part of the country.  We’re all in on Mizzou, so don’t start screaming when you read this, Tiger fans, but…

Florida State is a national brand.  When it comes to national television ratings, FSU versus Arizona State would draw more eyes than Mizzou versus Arizona State.  Florida State versus Georgia would get better ratings than Missouri versus Georgia.

No, FSU wouldn’t add a new state or new households to the SEC.  If the league doesn’t start a new network with ESPN, then what’s the difference on that front?  Florida State would’ve been a bigger brand name and would have drawn bigger numbers for every SEC contest they played.

FSU to the Big 12 would be a major coup for a league that was on a respirator about 12 months ago.

The Big 12 would also get a nice little tit-for-tat by picking up the Noles.  The SEC just got a foothold in Texas with A&M.  FSU would give the Big 12 a foothold in Florida.  Take that, SEC.

FSU would get more cash, but…

Let’s face facts, Florida State is a national brand despite the fact they’ve fallen off in football over the last decade.  If they couldn’t beat the Wake Forests and Georgia Techs of the ACC for a league title, just how are the Seminoles going to fare in the Big 12 with Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and TCU?  Careful what you wish for, Mr. Haggard.

In addition, FSU already has a rival with Florida and could easily develop rivalries with Georgia, Auburn, Alabama and others in the much closer SEC.  At some point Seminole fans might be faced with road trips to Lubbock, Ames and Manhattan (Kansas) that make their current excursions to Atlanta, Coral Gables and Tobacco Road seem like neighborhood strolls.

Clemson, Miami, Louisville and Notre Dame… you’re on the clock

What once was an unsubstantiated rumor supported by no quotes an written by an unknown person has quickly become an honest-to-God mega-story thanks to Haggard’s comments (and Fisher’s response to them).  You can bet the expansion/realignment talk will go absolutely nuts at this point.

FSU will be viewed as a done deal and schools all over America will be kicked around as being the next to join the Big 12… or Big 14… or Big 16.

What about Notre Dame?  The Big Ten?  Will the Big East collapse?  Will the ACC?

You can also expect all the talk of a 16-school SEC to start up again.  Expansion chatter is good for business when football and basketball are out of season.  So get ready to read that Commissioner Slive has secretly flown into Blacksburg and Raleigh and Chapel Hill and Durham.  Get ready for East Carolina fans to start their campaign for SEC entry again.  Get ready for rumors of a Big 12 versus SEC tug-of-war for Florida State to commence.

Oh, it’s all coming.

Damnit.  (Trust me, I’m not excited to be writing about this stuff at 1am on a Sunday morning.)

If you’re a conference commissioner, good luck on the playoff front

Those talks between the league commissioners and Notre Dame’s AD just got a lot more interesting, didn’t they?  Let’s see if they can design a playoff system while also trying to figure out who’ll be playing who on a regular basis.

Will Florida State get any Texas A&M-style blowback?

Last summer, a myriad of national writers took aim at Texas A&M for destabilizing college football with its move to the SEC.  (How the third school to leave a league was to blame for realignment, I’m still not sure.)  But let’s see if the columnists now hammer Florida State for with equal vigor for kicking off Expansionpalooza 2012.

Shoot, let’s see if ESPN ever gets around to even mentioning this story.

While we think the SEC should have grabbed Florida State…

Have we made this clear yet?  If FSU lands in the Big 12, that’s a huge plus for the Big 12 and — like the extension of their grant of rights and their new TV deals — it will further stabilize a league where everyone needs a set of handcuffs to stick together.

But…

When you consider how loudly factions at FSU just broke ranks and went in separate directions, you think, maybe the Seminoles really wouldn’t have been a good fit for the SEC.  Seriously.  When’s the last time you saw an SEC or Big Ten school do something like Haggard and Florida State just did?  Never?  Those are the two top leagues in America because they don’t air their dirty laundry.

Saturday in Tallahassee was dysfuntional at best.  And while the Big 12 is clearly improving, it could have easily changed its name to the Dysfunctional 12 over the last few years.  Maybe FSU is better off with the Texases and Oklahomas of the world after all.

Nah.

We still think the SEC and/or FSU missed the boat on this one.  Florida State should be in the Southeastern Conference.

Kudos to the Big 12 if they land ‘em.

I think that deal’s supposed to be done in two months, right, Dude?

I gotta start following that guy’s Twitter feed.

Florida State athletic director Randy Spetman must be a big ol’ liar.  Either that or he’s not as well connected as messageboard posters and insiders like “The Dude of WV.”  I say that because Spetman told The Orlando Sentinel today that the Seminoles are committed to the ACC.

Doesn’t he know FSU’s already got an agreement in place to move to the Big 12 along with Miami, Clemson and others?  A deal to start their own television network?  A deal that would grant them a full-share of revenue as soon as they enter Big 12?  And a deal for the Big 12 to help buy the Noles’ way out of the ACC?

Apparently not:

“We’re in the ACC. We’re committed to the ACC.  That’s where our president and the board of trustees has committed to, so we’re great partners in the ACC… I’m not out negotiating.”

Further, Spetman told The Sentinel that any reports about any Florida State officials talking to Big 12 officials are — in the writer’s words — patently false:

“They’ve said I’ve been in Texas all this week.  My wife was wondering how I was getting back and forth every day…  I don’t know why people have written (about FSU to the Big 12).  I don’t know how they can say that — and I don’t mean to pick on the media – but how can the media person come out and say that there was a Florida State person in a meeting that wasn’t true?  How can they get away with that?  To my knowledge, nobody from our organization was there.  So I don’t know how they can get away with saying that.”

Spetman also said he and his fellow FSU officials “weren’t actively seeking” an invitation to the SEC last summer, either.

Things change.  People lie (or “spin” if you prefer).

But Spetman’s definitive comments sure seem to confirm what we wrote last week and what we’ve been told all this week from people actually working inside athletic departments and university administrations — Florida State and Clemson aren’t going to the Big 12 in the near future.

It started last week just as soon as spring practices wrapped up across the country (almost as if some folks needed stories that would drive ratings, call-ins, and pageviews… hmmm).  This week, word came that two of the remaining Big Five conferences had cut new television contracts worth billions of dollars.  But did that slow the expansion talk?  Not for many.

For those keeping score at home…

Orangebloods.com — the Rivals site that covers Texas — wrote yesterday that maybe, just possibly Florida State could consider a move to the Big 12.  Now, last week the same site reported that they’d been told by people at Clemson and Florida State that representatives from those schools had had no conversations with the Big 12 at all.  Yesterday’s piece didn’t conflict that.  Yet it’s still being passed around the internet as though there’s some breaking news involved.  Granted, they make a good case for all the reasons FSU might want to consider a move, but they don’t say the Seminoles are considering a move.

In fact, in another post from Chip Brown — the site’s administrator — Orangebloods refers to “the longshot scenario that Florida State would possibly leave the Atlantic Coast Conference.”  So while the site itself says it’s been told the parties haven’t actually talked and that such a move is a “longshot scenario,” it’s being passed along on other sites that a new gospel has been handed to us, written by Brown, stating that FSU is ditching the ACC for the Big 12.  Talk about seeing what you want to see and reading what you want to read.

Further, Orangbloods writes that FSU president Eric Barron “is seen as an academic who is not tied in closely with athletics and prizes FSU’s place in the academically strong ACC,” despite working for the University of Texas from 2006 through 2008.  In addition, the site says football coach Jimbo Fisher “is apparently opposed to leaving the ACC.”  Oh, and the site questions whether or not AD Randy Spetman — facing a budget shortfall — is in any postion to push his school into a new league.

Funny.  While Orangebloods is being tabbed as breaking some sort of news of an FSU move, in reality the site looks to be stating, “Hey, it’s possible, but there are a lot reasons to think it won’t happen.”

(Ironically, this is the exact same stance we’ve taken here, here, and here only to be clubbed over the head for it by Big 12 messageboarders.)

Another person being quoted by Big 12 fans is someone who refers to himself as “The Dude of WV.”  Yep, no name.  We just know the following from his tagline: “The Dude abides.  Truth seeker, philosopher, sPitt hater, and Mountaineer fan.”  Well that sounds like an objective point of view.  (Nevermind the unwillingness to sign his name to his work.)

At any rate, the Dude wrote last week that not only have their been talks between FSU, Clemson and the Big 12 — you listening, Orangebloods? — but that “both FSU and Clemson have reached a tentative agreement to leave the ACC for the Big 12.”  Well, hell, that’s strong as new rope, as we say Down South.

Yesterday, he provided an update that starts with this bit of homerism:

“The vast majority of media pundits and traditional journalists just can’t accept an ACC team would leave for the Big 12.  They offer a litany of reasons why any move would be a bad idea.  Yet switch ‘Big 12′ with ‘SEC’ and they all agree a move would be a great thing.”

No, grand sweeping generalizations there.  But, since the Dude chose to go there…

People would think an SEC move for Clemson and Florida would make more sense than a Big 12 move for three simple reasons:

1.  Those schools are already in the same region of the country which would make travel easier and cheaper.

2.  Those schools already have existing rivalries with SEC schools.

3.  The SEC is a more stable league than the Big 12.  We wrote earlier this week — though it was ignored by several Big 12′ers because it didn’t fit their “You hate the Big 12″ narrative — that the Big 12′s decision to extend its grant of rights is a terrific step for the league and goes along way toward stabilizing things inside that conference.  However, the SEC has no exit fees.  Think about that.  They’re so unworried about schools leaving that they don’t even have exit penalties in their handbook.  On the other hand, the Big 12′s granting of media rights is akin to a married couple saying, “Yeah, we trust each other, but we better handcuff ourselves together just in case.”

Those three points are facts.  We here at MrSEC.com cover the SEC, we don’t pull for, root for, or puff up the SEC.  Those three points aren’t homerism, they’re reality.

So is this: You know why Notre Dame is never mentioned in connection with the SEC?  Because that school would more likely align itself with a league better known for its academics, like the Big Ten or the ACC.  SEC fans won’t like to hear that and we’re sure to hear that by adding Missouri and Texas A&M Mike Slive’s league has now grown to four AAU schools total, more than the Big 12.  True.  But it’s still a fact that the ACC, Big Ten (and Pac-12, too) have better reputations academically than the SEC.

Notre Dame’s also a lot closer to the Big Ten and the Big 12 than it is to the SEC.  That doesn’t hurt us to say that because we… don’t… care.  We cover.  We give honest opinions unclouded by allegiance to a school (or hatred toward sPitt, for example).

But back to the Dude’s latest ultra-popular expansion piece…

Yesterday he wrote that FSU has already asked the Big 12 “to help with the ACC buyout and demanded a full share of Big 12 revenues from the start.  And they want Miami to join them.”  Further he adds: “Miami’s money problems are worse than FSU’s and FSU believes that travel in the new Big 12 East would not be that much of a burden with WVU, Clemson and Miami in the division.  Add Louisville or Maryland in there and travel is no longer an issue.”  And for a sweetener: “FSU really likes the spirit of cooperation they are getting from the Big 12.”

Yep, because when you think of the Big 12 in recent years, the words “spirit of cooperation” often come to mind.

So last week we had FSU and Clemson with tentative deals to jump leagues.  Now we have a Big 12 featuring Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and Louisville or Maryland making up a new 14-school league.

Now that seems like a big jump in a week’s time, but that’s what’s been sent to my john@mrsec.com email account about 50 times since yesterday afternoon.  (Most of those emails also mention that Notre Dame will jump in as a non-football member of the league, too, to bring the total number of Big 12 schools to 15.)

That would be a helluva conference, no two ways about it.  Good football and basketball, mega-brands, a huge geographic footprint for recruiting and a big “electronic” footprint in terms of desirable television matchups.  And if the Dude’s nailed that one, we’ll be the first to tip our hat to him.

But doesn’t it seem that there would be a lot of hoops to jump through to make all of that happen?  And doesn’t it also seem odd that ESPN and Fox would cut new TV deals with the Big 12 if they thought all those moves — or any of those moves — were truly likely in the short-term?  Just saying.

That’s not all, of course.  Brett McMurphy of CBSSports.com writes that Boise State might now be reconsidering its decision to join the Big East.  If so, they could get directions from TCU on how to leave a conference before ever entering it.

And Andy Katz of ESPN.com writes that according to his sources, Louisville AD Tom Jurich “told the Big East board of directors that the Cardinals want to be in the Big 12 or the ACC.”  But wait, there’s more.  ”Connecticut, meanwhile, states publicly that it wants to stay in the Big East, though a number of UConn sources have said privately that they want to be in the ACC with Notre Dame.”

Of course, they do.

While all the world appears to be spinning off into the Realignment Twilight Zone again, we’re sticking to the same points we’ve been making for a week:

1.  Any changes in conference affiliation aren’t likely to lead the SEC to expand anytime soon.  The smaller conferences — we’re looking at you, Big East — might be drawn and quartered like William Wallace, but the big boys probably aren’t going to be adding four to five teams, regardless of what anonymous writers with good taste in movies claim.  (Two thumbs up for “The Big Lebowski”)

2.  If the Big 12 expands, it will do so probably in hopes of getting back to 12 teams in order to add a conference championship game (which Big 12 officials have publicly stated isn’t an actual goal).  Louisville almost got in over West Virginia last year.  Katz’ news on Jurich and the Cardinals wanting to join the Big 12 or ACC is perfectly believable.  That’s why we’ve listed Louisville as the most likely school to join the Big 12… if invited.

3.  We’re still not convinced that adding a league championship game by grabbing Louisville and Cincinnati — the other school we’ve thought makes the most sense if a biggie can’t be grabbed — would add enough revenue to justify even adding two more schools.

4.  No one pays attention to academics, but academic budgets are far larger than athletic budgets.  Would a move by FSU increase or decrease its academic standing?  Would that in turn lead to more grants for research or less, more funding or less, more donations or less?  These things don’t matter as much to schools like Boise State and San Diego State who need to grab every penny — academic, athletic or otherwise — that they can find.  They do matter to Top 100 universities, their presidents and their donors.  Keep in mind, in the history of expansion the three most-respected leagues academically have never lost a single team to a conference with a lesser academic reputation.  Not the Pac-12.  Not the Big Ten.  Not the ACC.  Call that dumbluck or claim “there’s a first time for everything,” but to date, the schools most prideful of their academic standing have never stepped down the ladder.

5.  Even if the Big East disintegrates, it’s likely that each power league other than the SEC will scoop up a school or two.  Louisville and Cincinnati or Notre Dame to the Big 12.  Notre Dame or Rutgers to the Big Ten.  Notre Dame or UConn to the ACC.  None of those moves would force the 14-school SEC to react.

6.  While some continue to trumpet Virginia Tech and NC State as future members of the SEC – ignoring the fact that the majority of NCSU’s board is put in place by UNC’s board — we don’t see the SEC raiding the ACC.  In fact, if the SEC has a pal among the other Big Five leagues right now it appears to be John Swofford and his conference.  As 14-schools leagues, the SEC and ACC are fighting similar battles right now when it comes to the layout of a new playoff system (assuming the Big Ten and Pac-12 presidents don’t blow that whole idea up).

Yesterday, we wrote that the ACC’s new television agreement should hush some of the rumors regarding ACC defections.  One commenter asked beneath our story, “What fans have you been talking to?”

The answer: None.  We don’t form our opinions and go on the record with those opinions based on what we read on messageboards.

Instead I’ve personally spoken to people inside two SEC athletic departments, two SEC administrations, two ACC administrations, and one high-ranking television executive (not with ESPN or Fox) in the past 24 hours.

Those seven phone calls and email conversations have led those of us at MrSEC.com to believe that what we’ve said all along is still true — expansion and realignment at the highest levels is slowing down, not speeding up.  Everyone seems to believe the Big East could crumble at any moment.  No one seems to believe FSU or Clemson will leave the ACC, despite the rumors which — to date — have not had a single quote attached to them.

So if you’re thinking FSU might land in the Big 12 North as the folks at WFOR-TV in Miami seem to, you might want to take a deep, deep breath.  Sure the Big 12 could be the Big 20 tomorrow.  Never say never.

But I think Big 12 fans and everyone else should pay attention to what Oklahoma State president Burns Hargis said regarding his league’s possible expansion:

“No, I don’t think there’s a consensus on it.  I think there are a lot of variables [and] a lot of factors that have to be considered.  Right now we have a lot of views on it, but they’re all subject, I think, to what we believe the future of college athletics will be and who might we ask to join.

I do think there’s a strong feeling in the conference for the round-robin nature of our schedules.  I know our athletic directors really like that [and] I think fans really like that.  So there would have to be a very good reason to abandon that.”

Money is a very good reason.  That said, it certainly sounds as though the Big 12 — like most other leagues out there — would rather catch its breath and see how its most recent changes play out before racing into more moves.

Blair Kerkhoff of The Kansas City Star seemed to agree with that sentiment while appearing on a West Virginia-based radio show this week:

“At least the league isn’t backpedaling and having to add schools to save its existence.  Now it adds schools to enhance its existence, if it decides to.  My gut is telling me is it has to be the right schools.  You don’t add for the sake of adding…

I threw out Florida State and Clemson only because those names have been popping up since February.  I had not written that in any story or blog, but I said ‘if we’re going to round up everybody, let’s include those two.’ 

Everybody that I’ve talked to in the Big 12 and at schools in the conference office tell me there have been no conversation between those schools and the Big 12.  But, that’s not to say back channeling hasn’t happened or various other ways that schools can communicate with conferences.”

True enough.  But again, with previous expansion moves there has always been some level of talk among the major players before a move took place — the Pac-12′s Larry Scott flying hither and yon to meet with various Big 12 school officials in 2010, SEC officials and Texas A&M officials chatting one another up in 2011, etc.

At some point, the big boys may start talking.  Until then, the “it’s coming and it’s coming fast and it’s ALMOST HERE!” crowd probably need to relax.

We could be wrong.  No doubt about it (even though we trust our sources because they’ve given us great information over the past four years).  But we don’t believe the Big 12 will be raiding the ACC and the Big East and grabbing Notre Dame in the next week or so.

We think a lot of this stuff just feeds on itself.  Remember, there was a time when the Pac-10 was definitely going to add Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Baylor.  There was a time when the Big Ten was definitely going to add Missouri, Notre Dame, Rutgers and Connecticut.

So put your money on the hype if you like.  You might hit the jackpot.  We at MrSEC.com will be keeping our cash in pocket until we hear something just a bit more definite.

UPDATE — Chuck Carlton of The Dallas Morning News writes: “…two sources indicated that Florida State’s name has not yet been mentioned in expansion talks among Big 12 athletic directors.  One source also wondered about the rumor’s resiliency and what it said about legitimate Florida State discontent.  And multiple sources listed Louisville as the most likely Big 12 possibility, given the wobbly Big East and the Cardinals’ runner-up status to West Virginia int he most recent expansion sweepstakes.”

Yesterday the Atlantic Coast Conference and ESPN announced a massive extension of their current television agreement that goes a long way toward helping ACC schools keep up with the Joneses of the other power conferences.  After agreeing to a 12-year deal worth $1.86 billion two years ago, the two parties have now extended that contract through the 2026-27 season for a grand total of $3.6 billion.

The deal came as a result of the ACC’s move to nab Pittsburgh and Syracuse from the Big East conference in 2011.  Instead of 12 schools making $12.9 million per year from the old deal, the 14 schools of the new ACC — whenever Pitt and Syracuse arrive — will make an estimated $17.1 million per year.

That $17.1 million per school figure still lags behind the Pac-12′s new deal (about $21 million per school per year), the Big Ten (more than $20 million per) and the new Big 12 television deals announced earlier this week (about $20 million per).  SEC schools have been making about $17 million per year, but Mike Slive’s league is currently negotiating bumps in pay with both ESPN and CBS as a result of Missouri and Texas A&M entering the league.  When the smoke clears, it’s expected the SEC will make more per school than any other conference (either through enhanced deals or the launch of a new SEC network — with ESPN as potential partner — or both).

Overall, however, all of these leagues are now in the same general ballpark (even considering that the ACC has given ESPN its Tier I, II, and III rights).  That fact — as well as the timing of yesterday’s announcement — is being taken as a sign by most that those recent, much-hyped rumors of Clemson and Florida State moving to the Big 12 were in fact baseless.  We wrote as much last week.  It’s unlikely that ESPN would cut and announce new deals with the Big 12 and the ACC within a week’s time if the network thought there was even the remotest chance it would have to tear those deals up and negotiate new ones due to an impending Big 12 raid on the ACC.  A raid to take place before the end of summer according to some websites and many Big 12 supporters on messageboards.

We suspect, however, that those who’ve been behind the Clemson/FSU rumors — as well as those who’ve simply been hoping the rumors are true — will stick to their guns and point to the Tier III dollars lost by the ACC as a “sure” sign that the Tigers and Seminoles will jet from their current league.  And we’re still won’t buy it.

The ACC has a better academic reputation and more money flowing through its current academic partnerships than the Big 12.  Remember, research budgets at most major universities dwarf athletic budgets.  Additionally, we still can’t imagine the presidents at Clemson and FSU being able to sell their fans on traveling to places like Manhattan (Kansas), Lubbock, and Ames over places like Coral Gables, Chapel Hill and Atlanta.  For that matter, what about the parents of recruits?  Think Southern families would want to make longer trips to see their kids play football in a distant conference home?  Texas A&M and Missouri are going east instead of west by joining the SEC.  Clemson and FSU would be jumping an entire region in their move to go even farther west.

While anything’s possible when it comes to realignment and expansion, we at MrSEC.com think the current cycle has pretty much played itself out.  We’ve been saying that for a while now and from the folks we’ve spoken to at multiple SEC institutions, two ACC institutions, and one Big Ten institution… everyone seems to be in agreement.  Any remaining moves are likely to be either small or isolated.  Example: The Big 12 might decide to run at Louisville and another Big East team to max out at 12 schools and host a football championship game.  But with ESPN announcing deals with both the Big 12 and the ACC in the past week, we think that’s less likely as well (for the time being).

ACC commissioner John Swofford immediately put the following spin on his league’s new contract via press release:

“We are excited to have further enhanced our partnership with ESPN through the extension of our multimedia contract. We are proud that ESPN has invested so deeply in the ACC both from a resource and exposure standpoint.  As we look to the future, this relationship will be tremendous for our schools, fans, coaches and student-athletes.”

He could have just as easily said, “We feel much more stable today than we did yesterday.”  Better still: “We’ve been more stable than a lot of you have thought ever since we invited Pittsburgh and Syracuse to join us last year.”

Linebacker Josh Harvey-Clemons from Lowndes High School in Valdosta, Ga., is still pondering his college decision.

It looked to be a Florida-Georgia battle until last weekend when Harvey-Clemons took a visit to Florida State. The Seminoles became team No. 3 on his list when he returned home from the trip.

Could Florida State now be the favorite to land Harvey-Clemons? Maybe so. At least, that’s what Michael Carvell of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution indicated on Wednesday night.

“I’m hearing (yikes) #FSU is school to beat now,” Carvell wrote on twitter. “Never saw that coming.”

Former Georgia quarterback Buck Belue sees Harvey-Clemons headed to Florida. Belue, who hosts a talk show on 680 The Fan in Atlanta, also made it clear via twitter that Harvey-Clemons could change his mind.

Kipp Adams of ESPN.com chimed in while answering questions on a recruiting mailbag. His belief is that Harvey-Clemons would sign with Georgia if signing day were today. Of course, it isn’t and much could change in the next week. Adams accurately pointed that out in the mailbag.

The moral of this post? Harvey-Clemons doesn’t appear to have a decision. And if he does, he’s done a great job of making people guess what it is.

Defensive end Dante Fowler Jr. from Lakewood High School in St. Petersburg, Fla., has decided not to visit Southern California this weekend.

That report comes from Gerald Martinez of USCFootball.com.

Fowler, who’s committed to Florida State, took an official visit to Florida last weekend.

“It was cool,” Fowler said of his trip, according to ESPN.com. “We got to hang out with coach (Will) Muschamp and his family and the other coaches and their families.”

Did Florida show Fowler enough to convince him to switch his commitment? It’s tough to tell.

“It gives me some things to think about,” said Fowler, who plans to make a final announcement on Feb. 1, “but as far as switching my commitment, no it doesn’t give me anything to think about. I’m still committed to FSU.”

Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain seems to be a ready-made fit at Fresno State.  The man who either turned down Memphis at the last minute or got passed by Justin Fuente at the finish line this week — depending on who you to talk to — was Pat Hill’s top offensive coach in 2007, before joining Nick Saban’s staff.  According to one long-time FSU booster, McElwain expressed in the job two years ago.

“Just let me know when Pat Hill leaves or retires,” he told a group of Bulldog boosters at the 2009 Alabama-LSU game.  Well, Hill’s been forced out and now McElwain is believed to be a hot candidate for the job.  How hot?  Here’s what that long-time Fresno State booster, Harry Gaykian, told The Fresno Bee:

“I know he said he was interested (in) coming back to Fresno State before, and he’d definitely be a good choice for the university to consider.  Whether he’s the best fit, I don’t know.  I know a lot of people would be excited about him coming back.  He did a lot of good things when he was at Fresno.”

A Fresno State official also told the paper: “We can sell tickets with McElwain.  We can sell McElwain.  He knows Fresno and knows how to recruit in California.”

Personally, I can’t hear Fresno mentioned without hearing Johnny in “Airplane II” saying, “Fresno?  No one goes to Fresno anymore.”

Mario Pender‘s commitment to Florida State appears to be solid following his weekend visit to Tallahassee.

“I am going to FSU,” Pender told Rivals.com. “I don’t plan to visit anywhere else.”

The running back from Island Coast High School in Cape Coral, Fla., has already visited Tennessee and West Virginia.

Florida State will likely be happy to hold onto the commitment of Pender, who’s considered the nation’s third-best running back in the nation by Rivals.

Pender’s character off the field has been questioned in the last few days after word surfaced that he was arrested last week.

Pender was charged with misdemeanor battery and grand theft following an alleged incident with his “on-again, off-again girlfriend” on Tuesday, according to police. A police report states the incident took place inside her car, where Pender hit her with a right backhand before asking her to give him the keys and get out.

Pender, who will turn 18 next month, took the girl’s car and returned it to her home around 8 p.m. on Tuesday, according to police.

Pender has refused comment on the alleged incident but told Rivals he doesn’t expect the issue to affect his scholarship offer to Florida State.

In the last 12 hours, a wave of Mike Slive/SEC-related nuggets have hit the internet and we’ll do our best to break them down below.  Here goes…

1.  Making major headlines on ESPN is Slive’s comment that the BCS’ two-team limit might be removed as conference’s expand.


“I do know this: That Bill Hancock has put together a lit of issues that he believes the commissioners and the BCS bowl oversight committee out to be looking at as the BCS develops a position on upcoming negotiations.  I think that’s one of them.”

Obviously, the more teams a league lands in BCS bowls, the more money for that league and its schools.  And the SEC and Big Ten would likely benefit the most from such a move.

If this is the first you’ve heard of such talk, then you’re probably in the majority.  No outlets have been discussing this possibility at all.  Well, except for one:

“With more schools, the Big Ten and SEC would most certainly push for the current two-teams-in-the-BCS limit to be upped to a three-teams-in-the-BCS rule.  Additional bids would mean millions more for the leagues that land them.”

That’s from right here at MrSEC.com.  On May 17th.  May 17th of 2010. It was in Part 4 of our exhaustive “Expounding on Expansion” piece from 18 months ago.

Again, if you want to know what’s happening in expansion from a business point of view — before it happens — keep it tuned right here.

(For that matter, there’s been talk on the internet this week of the SEC expanding to 16 teams, forming four four-team divisions, and holding its own type of mini-playoff.  Not new.  We discussed four-team divisions in this May 17th, 2010 piece.  And while I can’t find the piece using our somewhat flaky archive system, we also wrote an article detailing how a four-team semifinals might be added to the SEC somewhere down the road, creating a new, massive influx of television cash.)

2.  According to an Associated Press chit-chat with Slive, the SEC is fine and dandy with sticking at unlucky 13.  Here’s what the commish said during a media conference yesterday:

“I really can’t emphasize this enough.  This has all been about Texas A&M.  We have not initiated any conversations with any institution.  This was about Texas A&M understanding that some of the complexities that 13 teams brings, and that’s really it…

“I know there will be enormous speculation (about a 14th school).  There will be speculation about how we’re going to schedule.  There’ll be speculation about whether we’re going to go to 14 and if we go to 14, who’s that going to be, how’s that going to happen, when’s that going to happen.  They’re all appropriate questions.  We will deal with those on a timetable that works for us.”

And none of that, of course, means that the SEC will actually be a 13-team league next year.  At this point — depending on what Missouri does — we believe it likely will be a 13-team league, but that’s not a guarantee.

After all, it was just a few weeks ago that the SEC presidents said they were happy at 12 schools.

3.  With some Mizzou fans wondering about the bowl tie-ins for the SEC and Big 12, The Columbia Tribune has put together a list right here.  The SEC has lined up nine bowl partners across the Southeast and into Arlington, Texas.  The Big 12 features seven bowl tie-ins with only a bowl at Yankee Stadium in New York residing East of the Mississippi.

The Tigers recruit heavily in Texas — one reason they would want A&M as a permanent opponent or as a divison-mate if they joined the SEC — and they may prefer the location of the Big 12′s games.  But the bet here is that the SEC’s bowl line-up is actually more attractive to Tiger coach Gary Pinkel.  More opportunities, more locations, more money.

4.  Meanwhile, Kevin Scarbinsky of The Birmingham News writes that it’s time for the SEC to add Florida State or “leave the door open for the Seminoles.”

“After swiping two new members from the Big East, the ACC has no legal ground to object should the SEC go after Florida State.  After the ACC added Pitt and Syracuse, Florida State has no logical reason to stay where it is.  It’s time for FSU and the SEC to admit that they’re perfect for each other.  The sooner, the better.”

Why aren’t the two parties dancing?  FSU certainly left its own door open with a non-denial denial from president Eric Barron and a “we’d listen if they called” statement from Andy Haggard, the chairman of the schools board of trustees.

It’s not because of a gentleman’s agreement.  We’ve been told that no such agreement exists — though the rest of the civilized world is passing this around as gospel because one blog floated it.

Also, Florida didn’t get in the way of Roy Kramer making a pitch to FSU in the 90s.  Another SEC ex-commissioner — Harvey Schiller — has told reporters that he remembers Florida actually pushing for Florida State during his tenure.

As Scarbinsky states, legal issues would likely not be a concern, either.  So what’s the hold-up?

Possibly this: The SEC didn’t want to expand in the first place.  The league feels good about its current position.  If it could have stood pat at 12 teams, it would have.  Texas A&M — long on the SEC’s wish list — was simply too good to pass up… even though the Aggies timeline left a little to be desired.

This site has been told by multiple SEC sources that the league has absolutely no interest in going all the way to 16 schools.  That’s an emergency situation only.  The league does not want to be a guinea pig in that area.

Therefore, the league might be worried that by grabbing/accepting FSU from the ACC, it might force that league to add UConn, Rutgers and — at that point — West Virginia.  That 16-team set-up would ensure the ACC’s survival.  It would also likely set off a wave of expansion moves forcing every other major league — including the SEC — to balloon to 16.

Why aren’t the SEC and FSU already in bed together?  That — and FSU’s administration’s love of ACC academics — are our bet.

In John Milton’s “Paradise Lost,” Satan says that it is better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.  It seems Florida State and ol’ Scratch have something in common.  Perhaps we should start saying “Florida Statan” around here.

FSU is the crown jewel of Atlantic Coast Conference football.  But that’s akin to being voted the sexiest man alive… on Gilligan’s Island.  It doesn’t take much to achieve that honor.

Oh, sure Clemson’s had success in the past.  Miami was once a national power before becoming a national scourge.  And as strong as Virginia Tech has been the last two decades, the Hokies still have never won a national crown.

The ACC is Hell when it comes to football.  But FSU can reign there.  If the Seminoles were to move to the more fitting, football-mad SEC, their fight to the top of the leaderboard would no doubt be much, much tougher.  But at least they’d be hanging out with kindred spirits.

Lightning-rod columnist Mike Bianchi of The Orlando Sentinel believes it’s time FSU pack its bags and start serving in Heaven.  An excerpt from his latest column:

“I’m starting to realize why more and more Florida State fans crave a move to the SEC and why the school reportedly has set up an exploratory committee to look into — among other things — whether the ACC is the best fit for FSU’s athletic program.

It’s becoming more and more apparent that the answer is no.  Let’s be bluntly honest here: ACC football just does not excite Florida State’s fan  base.  Never has.  Never will.  It didn’t really hit me until last weekend when a record crowd showed up at Doak Campbell Stadium for a game against No. 1-ranked Oklahoma.  That’s when I realized FSU fans are starving for the monumental mega-games that the ACC rarely provides.

All you have to do is look at FSU’s four home conference games this season — Maryland, NC State, Miami and Virginia — to understand.  Only the Miami game will truly get FSU fans jacked up, and UM-FSU was a big game long before Miami joined the ACC seven years ago.  It’s no wonder FSU has thousands and thousands of empty seats for its ACC home games.

Now juxtapose FSU’s ACC schedule with Florida’s SEC home schedule of Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia (neutral site) and Vanderbilt.  Three of Florida’s four league home games are marquee matchups against other big-time football schools who bring nearly as many fans on the road as some ACC teams draw at home.

This latest round of expansion shows once and for all that the Seminols are miscast in a basketball league.  Philosophically and geographically, Florida State is clearly an SEC school.”

Realignment is driven by television money.  If the SEC and FSU could put aside whatever differences divide them and partner up, the networks would pay large chunks of cash to gain access to an SEC upgraded with yet another major, national brand that provides cross-country drawing power.

Academics and administrators at FSU would definitely need some convincing to walk away from a highly-respected academic conference, but money talks.  And lots of money talks even louder.

The key here — as was the case at Texas A&M — might be the collective will of the school’s fans.  Aggie fans influenced boosters who influenced boardmembers and up the power chain the SEC vibe went.  Interestingly, Missouri fans have gone from relatively quiet on expansion a few weeks ago to screaming quite loudly for an SEC berth today.

If FSU fans were to campaign for the SEC, perhaps the FSU administration would listen.  And if that happened, then perhaps Mike Slive and the SEC would in turn listen to the Seminoles’ administrators.

(Isn’t it ironic that as we in the media cry and whine about the evils of expansion, fans at some schools are actually influencing the outcome of this realignment game?)

For FSU, the school faces a new spin on an old choice: Is it better to reign in football Hell or serve in gridiron Heaven?