There’s an old adage in college football that’s been passed down in pregame talk after pregame talk, decade after decade.  Different coaches have phrased it differently, but the central message conveyed has remained the same since the days of leather helmets.

“The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.”

When it comes to football in the Southeastern Conference — a league known for its superior defenses — that one simple sentence is all a fan needs to know.  At the stadium or watching in HD from home, fans can begin every ballgame with the knowledge that the more their team’s turnover count rises, the more their team’s chances of winning decline.

That might not sound like much of a revelation, but six years worth of numbers pound home the fact that nothing — absolutely nothing — has as much bearing on the outcome of an SEC football game as turnovers.  You can set aside quarterback comparisons and coaching matchups.  You don’t need to break down two schools’ special teams units.  When asked who’ll win the next big SEC football game, just respond: “The team that wins the turnover battle.”

Regular readers of this site — as opposed to you irregular readers — know that we like to provide you with an annual examination of the SEC’s turnover statistics.  This year is no exception and below you’ll find the numbers for the 2012 season, the league’s first with 14 teams and a 57-game league schedule (including the SEC Championship Game).  We’ll also show you the updated six-year tally of turnover data.

But first, for the sake of comparison, we want you to see the impact fumbles and interceptions have had on the SEC standings over the past five years.

Below are the turnover numbers from 2007 through 2011.  We’ve included only conference games, SEC versus SEC.  In a 12-school league that equaled 49 games per year counting the SEC title game in Atlanta.  Therefore, the tables below contains 245 games worth of data.

In the first chart, we show you how teams fared when they turned the ball over zero times, once, twice, thrice, or four or more times in an SEC contest.  In the second chart you’ll see — in games where one team held a turnover advantage over another — how those teams on the positive side of the turnover battle fared record-wise.  (A tip for the mathematically-challenged: Reverse the numbers in the bottom chart and you can quickly figure out the records for teams that finished on the negative side of the turnover battle, too.)

2007-2011 SEC Games

As you can see, over the span of 245 SEC contests it’s abundantly clear that turnovers play an enormous role in who wins and who loses.  In fact, over the final five years of the 12-school SEC, teams that did not turn the ball over in a game won 75% of the time.

Think about that: Not turning the ball over = 75% chance of winning an SEC football game.

The chart showing turnover margins is even more telling.  If a team finished plus-one in turnover margin, it had a 71% chance of winning its game.  Finish plus-two and the number jumped to an 80% chance of victory.  Plus-three teams won an astounding 90% of the time.

See why we say you can toss all the other comparisons and breakdowns?

Now let’s look at last year, the 2012 season.  The SEC expanded by two teams which added eight more games to the overall conference slate.  Did we see much difference in a 57-game SEC season?

Read the rest of this entry »

SEC Football

1. Kentucky football player Ashely Lowery saw improvement this weekend from a car accident that ejected him from the vehicle.

2. Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron spoke to the media before driving the Honorary Pace Car at Talladega.

3. McCarron and Johnny Manziel get a lot of attention. Don’t forget about Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray.

4. Ole Miss showed it should be deep at running back coming out of spring practice.

5. South Carolina has showed it has two quality quarterbacks to rely on. They’ll need help at wide receiver.

6. Missouri’s battle at quarterback will be the main question for the Tigers heading into the summer months.

7. Players seem to have bought into new Tennessee coach Butch Jones. Quarterback and team depth are main concerns.

8. Vanderbilt finally has offensive line depth it will be able to rely on.

9. Kentucky football coach Mark Stoops was at the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.

Extra

10. Former Kentucky basketball player Nerlens Noel took a 7-year-old leukemia patient to the Kentucky Derby.

11. Cecil Hurt looks at the extra exposure and money that should be provided by the SEC network.

12. The SEC network was a win for Missouri, which hasn’t seen much on-field success in its first year in the league.

13. Mike Tanier looks at lessons that should be learned from this year’s NFL draft.

14. David Ragan was a surprise winner at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday.

1. A second arrest made Friday in the Baton Rouge bar fight that involved LSU running back Jeremy Hill but formal charges could take a while.”It will be several weeks, probably longer.”

2. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier:  ”It took us a while, but the black athlete has made our conference the best in the country. There is no question about it.”

3. Six of the ten most popular college coaches on Twitter are in the SEC – Les Miles No. 1, Butch Jones No. 3, Mark Richt, No. 4, Bret Bielema No. 5, Hugh Freeze No. 8, and Dan Mullen No. 9.

4. Florida A.D. Jeremy Foley on talk of a nine-game SEC schedule.  ”From a selfish standpoint, we have to play Florida State every year, OK?So nine conference games and Florida State, that’s a tough challenge.”

5. Auburn returns four of five starters along its offensive line.  Center Reese Dismukes likes the approach from new coach Gus Malzahn: “This year, there’s no grey area.”

6. Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin on defending his honorary WWE belt:  “What time is the fight?”

SEC Network

7. One key to the SEC Network? Watch the states of Florida and Texas – they makeup more than half the homes in the conference.

8. With the network announcement and Kyle Field expansion, a big week at Texas A&M.  Where would be the Aggies be if still in the Big 12?  “Well, we wouldn’t have had as big a week as we’ve had.”

SEC Basketball

9. An earlier start to Midnight Madness. NCAA allowing practice to start two weeks earlier than previous years.

10. Florida will travel to Connecticut in December.  Huskies will make return trip dependent on O’Connell Center renovations.

11. Arkansas wants a practice facility to help with recruiting.

Extra

12. St. Louis Cardinals pitching prospect (and former Texas A&M pitcher) Michael Wacha has a message for Johnny Manziel.

SEC Football

1. Baton Rouge police report: “Cell phone video shows LSU running back Jeremy Hill punching a man from behind and then celebrating with high fives when a second unidentified man knocked the victim out with another punch.”

2. Former Florida State quarterback Clint Trickett picks West Virginia.  Had considered transferring to Auburn.

3. Because his style of play is what the NFL craves, Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel “must strike now,” according to Matt Hayes of The Sporting News.

4. Manziel and the Aggies offense will be the focus of many SEC coaches over the summer.

5. Meet DJ Double R, the man providing the soundtrack for Texas A&M football.

6. Georgia coach Mark Richt on offensive line play: I’d rather have five guys that are in sync…. than three of them that are superstars and two guys that can’t play.”

7. How Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen’s 2009 recruiting class fared – compared to Ole Miss.

8. What the NFL draft says about the Arkansas program.

9. Auburn defense end Dee Ford led the team in sacks in 2012 and defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson likes what he saw this spring: ”He is our best and, at this point, our only pass rusher that is giving us the kind of pass rush we’ve got to get to be successful.”

10. Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron will be the honorary pace car driver at the Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday.

11. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier and former player Sterling Sharpe the best SEC golfers at the Chik-fil-A Bowl challenge.

SEC Basketball

12. Former Rutgers guard Eli Carter is transferring to Florida.  Averaged 14.9 points per game last year before breaking his leg. Seeking a waiver to allow him to be on the 2013-2014 roster.

13. One incoming -one outgoing for the Gators.   Guard Braxton Ogbueze is leaving.

14. Ole Miss guard Marshall Henderson – preseason All-American candidate?

15. Georgia and Georgia Tech scheduled to play on November 15th. In a series that dates back to 1905, the two teams have never met that early in the season.

SEC/College News

16. Expect the committee organized to review Auburn athletics to file a report “in a few weeks.”

17. An attorney vs. attorney dispute that’s generating attention from the NCAA and the NFL.

18. Which conference won realignment?  I doubt you’ll be surprised by the answer.

Extras

19. 15 candidates to be on the stage at New York City’s Radio City Music Hall for next year’s NFL draft.

20. A Tennessee State football player collapsed on the practice field and later died. Now his parents are suing the university for wrongful death.

SEC/NFL Draft

1. Bear Bryant had 13 first-round picks in 25 years at Alabama.  Nick Saban has 14 first-rounders in six years. Alabama coach discusses his former players.

2. Why is the NFL so lukewarm on Barrett Jones?

3. Former LSU cornerback Tharold Simon reportedly arrested Thursday night – projected as a mid-round pick.

4. Do character concerns explain why Sharrif Floyd dropped last night?

5. It was Tennessee coach Butch Jones who discovered Eric Fisher – the No. 1 overall pick of the draft – and recruited him to Central Michigan.

6. 32 of the last 96 first-round picks in the NFL draft have come out of the SEC.

7. The MrSEC breakdown of this year’s first-round SEC talent.

8. No Arkansas players taken in the first round but as many as six Razorbacks could get drafted this weekend.

9. Mississippi State has three potential late-round picks.

10. Former Alabama and now San Diego Chargers lineman D.J. Fluker on a controversial tweet earlier this week: ”I had nothing to do with it. My agent took care of it.”

11. Johnny Manziel sends congratulations to his former offensive tackle Luke Joeckel – taken second overall last night by Jacksonville.

SEC Football

12. Manziel is one of five SEC players on this Heisman Trophy Watch List.

13. Auburn defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson on depth along his defensive line.  “It’s also going to help us practice more physically each day.”

14. Answers to five questions about Auburn’s spring.

15. Tennessee’s new senior associate AD in charge of football is Mike Vollmar – previous work experience includes a stint at Alabama.

SEC/College Sports

16. Outgoing Georgia president Michael Adams doesn’t like the idea of an extra division in college sports - thinks the “have nots” belong in the same division as the power five conferences. “My view is they still belong.”

17. Heather Mason relieved of her duties as associate strength and conditioning coach at Tennessee. She was one of three plaintiffs in a lawsuit filed against the university.

18. Felony gun charges dropped against former Georgia running back Isaiah Crowell.

19. Emails, the NCAA, and concerns over video-game images.

20. The NCAA is facing 15 pending lawsuits.

SEC Basketball

21. Kevin Scarbinsky on what Trevor Lacy’s transfer means for coach Anthony Grant: “Grant will enter his fifth season at Alabama squarely on the hot seat.”

22. Coach Mark Fox talks Georgia basketball.

23. About 300 players across college basketball have announced plans to transfer.

Extras

24. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell’s rules for hugging – just don’t break a rib.

25. Best players still available in the draft.

26. JaMarcus Russell -” the biggest draft bust in NFL history, surpassing even Ryan Leaf.”

27. Digger Phelps diagnosed with bladder cancer.

28. Rick Pitino gets his tattoo.

29. RIP George Jones.  Country music legend dead at the age of 81.

Everytime Heisman-winning quarterback Johnny Manziel pops up in top-dollar seats at a basketball game or posts a photo of himself at the beach or hanging with another celeb, questions immediately follow. 

“How is he paying for that?”

“Think someone’s giving him illegal gifts?”

Well according to Manziel via CBSSports.com, the Texas A&M compliance department has wisely been covering all its bases when it comes to the jet-setting QB:

“They keep sending me questionnaires like, ‘How did I go to the Spurs game?’  Even though I’ve been going to Spurs games since I moved to Kerrville when I was in the seventh grade.  A good family friend who we’ve known since before I ever thought of playing college football has a suite there.  We’re going to go to the suite and we’re just gonna watch the game.  I know (Spurs’ star) Tony Parker on a personal level and if I go down to say hello, I’m not doing anything wrong.

They keep sending me questionnaires asking me who’s funding the trip?  Who’s doing this?  Every time I respond back, ‘ME, ME and ME,’ in capital letters.  Hey, I don’t mean to sound rude, but this is stuff I’ve always done, and I know you’re just doing your job, but it gets to you every now and again.”

Manziel has all the talent in the world, but only someone viewing the world through maroon-colored sunglasses could watch Manziel’s offseason (so far) and not be somewhat worried about fame going to this particular quarterback’s head.  It’s a legitimate concern.  And whether it’s chatting with Tony Parker at an NBA game or hanging with Justin Timberlake and Jessica Biel at the Super Bowl, there’s plenty of stuff that might’ve already gone to Manziel’s head.

Even Aggie coach Kevin Sumlin realizes his star’s transformation from Johnny Manziel into Johnny Football requires some coaching away from the playing field:

“The conversations, a lot of times, are on a non-football level.  The conversations are about a lot of other things and how to handle them.  Everyone has an idea about how they’d handle it, but until you’re in their shoes, you really don’t know.

I don’t know that ‘keeping it in check’ is the right way to put it.  In a lot of ways, if he hadn’t won the Heisman, he’d still be going to games and to concerts and trying to meet LeBron (James).  But now those guys want to meet him, too.  And that’s changed his life…

Johnny really like to play football, though.  He’d have stayed in and played the whole (spring) game if we’d have let him Saturday.  So what’s the next challenge?  Really great players deep down inside are not motivated by the fame or the money.  They’re just string to be the best, and he has that in him.  What’s the next big thing?  Playing at the next level.  He really wants to play football and he wants to improve.”

Ah, the NFL.

When Manziel declares himself eligible for the NFL draft — and many expect the redshirt sophomore will do so a year from now — all aspects of his game will be examined.  From his arm strength to his height, there will always be doubters.

There will also be a lot of NFL coaches and GMs who’ll pepper Manziel with questions about his high-profile lifestyle.

In the end, talent will win out and A&M’s quarterback will be a hot commodity on draft day.  But if Texas A&M’s compliance office gets under his skin a bit, he’ll really be tested when 32 teams at the NFL combine grill him about his personal motivations: Fame or football, Johnny?

And trust us, he will absolutely have to answer that question again and again and again.

When Tommy Tuberville surprised everyone by jumping the first train from Lubbock to Cincinnati last December, Texas Tech officials turned to one of their own when searching for a new head coach.  Kliff Kingsbury played at Tech under Mike Leach.  He still ranks near the top of all the Red Raider passing categories — yards, touchdowns, completions.  And now he’s being hailed as the savior of Texas Tech football.

Kingsbury had spent the previous five seasons working under Kevin Sumlin, first at Houston and then, last season, at Texas A&M.  In College Station he was offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, tutoring some fella named Johnny Manziel.

But Kingsbury’s new boss — Tech AD Kirby Hocutt — wants everyone to know where his new coach’s heart has always remained, telling CBSSports.com:

“Kliff was never an Aggie.  Ask him.”

Sounds like a little playful gig, but you can be sure some out there have taken offense.

Hocutt went on to say that Tech would “love to play A&M in every sport (but) nothing is in conversation right now.”  Asked why the schools aren’t talking, he added: “You’re not going to bait me there.  Hopefully someday those conversations can begin.”

One suspects Kingsbury would have no problem facing Texas A&M.  After all, he was never an Aggie.  Just ask him.

SEC Football

1. Spring game record crowd of 45, 212 at Kyle Field watch Johnny Manziel give fans a scare with a head first block. “I immediately regretted it. It was a mistake, but it was just my competitive nature.”

2. “When Manziel got up and jogged off, you could hear the sighs of relief from the Aggie sideline to Alabama’s football offices.”

3. Estimated 50,831 fans at Kentucky’s spring game.  One year ago – 4,500. Coach Mark Stoops: ”It was a great night for the program.”

4. Did quarterback Jalen Whitlow emerge from the pack Saturday?

5. He was wearing shorts and no pads, but Jadeveon Clowney scored a touchdown at South Carolina’s spring game.

6. Mike Davis wins the running back job at South Carolina and Steve Spurrier likes his tight ends. “I think you can tell we’ve got some tight ends that can really play,”

7. True freshman quarterback Johnny McCrary played in Vanderbilt’s spring game- his dad died of a heart attack on Tuesday.

8. Vandy’s projected starters barely beat the second team Saturday.

9. Crowd of 28,000 on hand at the Grove Bowl. But Ole Miss spring game really just another practice because of injuries.

10. Rebels unveil new uniforms.

11. Status of Marlin Lane clouds the running back situation at Tennessee – away for “disciplinary reasons.” Don’t expect the Vols quarterback competition to be settled anytime soon.

12. Missouri coach Gary Pinkel on wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham.  ”I think we’re starting to see really how good he can be.”

13. Arkansas coach Bret Bielema likes the way his offensive line has progressed: “If there’s a group from when we started to where we are that had to change the most and have done that, it’s been the offensive line.”

14. Timed at a sub 4.3 4o-yard dash, Mississippi State redshirt freshman wide receiver Brandon Holloway has speed to burn.

15. Alabama’s defense is banged up but coach Nick Saban still didn’t sound enthusiastic about their performance Saturday. “We definitely have a lot of things that we can correct on that side of the ball.”

16. Star of Auburn’s Saturday scrimmage - running back Corey Grant. Grant one of five Tigers turning heads this spring.

17. Columnist on Auburn’s recent troubles: “I don’t know which is higher: The touchdowns Cam Newton accounted for or the number of issues surrounding that team.”

18. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger dominates LSU’s second scrimmage Saturday.

19. When John Chavis was hired as defensive coordinator at LSU, his first request was to hire Brick Haley as defensive line coach.

SEC Basketball

20. Ricky Tarrant is transferring to Alabama.  The 2012 Conference USA Newcomer of the Year at Tulane will have to sit out 2013-2014 season.

21. Tennessee’s Jordan McRae won’t be leaving for the NBA.  “I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to be a part of next year’s team, because I think we have a chance to have a great season.”

22. This preseason projection has Tennessee at No. 16, Florida at No. 8 and Kentucky No. 1.

23. Possible off-season knee surgery for Florida’s Will Yegeute.

24. With Phil Pressey leaving campus, Tulsa transfer Jordan Clarkson has an opportunity to shine at point guard for Missouri next year.

SEC Football

1. Kentucky has a chance to double its spring-game attendance record tonight. 49,000 tickets distributed plus another 11,000 given to elementary and middle school students.

2. At Texas A&M’s spring game today, all eyes on quarterback Johnny Manziel.

3. Don’t expect starters to get much playing time at today’s South Carolina spring game . Coaches want to get young players some experience.

4. First team vs. second team at Vanderbilt’s spring game.  Coach James Franklin: “The gap between our ones and our twos is not like what it used to be.”

5. Former LSU cornerback Tyrann Mathieu on his failed drug tests: “I don’t remember saying a specific number. I said I’ve failed several drug tests.”

6. Expect a more “game-like” scrimmage today at Alabama. Crimson Tide off Sunday and then head to the White House on Monday.

7. More than 1,600 coaches watched Alabama practice Friday.

8. Auburn running back Tre Mason battling an ankle injury, not participating in full-contact drills.

9. Second scrimmage of the spring today at Auburn.  Coaches seeking major improvement.  Offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee: “We’re looking for a big jump.”

10. Verdict on second Mississippi State scrimmage? Defense dominated.

11. Tennessee coach Butch Jones and Peyton Manning – a mutual admiration society.

12. Evan Boehm started every game for Missouri at left guard as a true freshman.  His sophomore season will see him under center.

SEC News

13. The NCAA director of enforcement is leaving his job and returning to Auburn. Dave Didion will join Auburn’s compliance department, a post he left in 1999 to go to the NCAA.

14. Auburn’s board of trustees approve plan to redevelop Toomer’s Corner - will plant new trees.

15. A posthumous appointment for Mal Moore at Alabama.  Board of trustees name him Athletic Director Emeritus.

16. How are Tennessee athletics faring under A.D. Dave Hart?

17. Seton Hall guard Aaron Crosby transferring to Illinois - was also considering Missouri.

Extras

18. Louisville coach Rick Pitino will get a tattoo on his shoulder next month.

19. Some PR advice for Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops: “Just don’t trout out the Hungry Sunday line. At least not for public consumption.”

20. Tim Tebow – Great Floridian.

Two weeks ago, Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel said he would give up Twitter because it had become a distraction.  Then he popped up on Instagram instead.

This week he briefly popped up back on Twitter:

Before you ask if Manziel is claiming he’s got the cash to fly girls into town for fun, that tweet is actually a paraphrased — read: cleaned up — quote from a song called “5am in Toronto” by Drake.  (If you look it up, those of you at work should turn the volume on your computer way down.)

Manziel quickly deleted the tweet, but not before several of his 300,000+ followers could retweet it.

Why is this news?  Because Manziel has more than 300,000 Twitter followers and because he said he was giving up Twitter.

Will a tweeting quarterback have anything to do with Texas A&M’s final record in 2013?  No.  But if the Aggies and/or Manziel take the slightest step backward this fall, you better believe some fans will blame it on a “distracted” Heisman-winner who’s enjoyed his offseason and become a must-follow tweet-machine in the process.  Awww yeah.  (See?  We can quote Drake, too.)