If there is one myth that we at MrSEC.com would like to bust it’s the belief that the Vegas line is a prediction by the Las Vegas oddsmakers of who will win a particular game.  It isn’t.  It never has been.  It never will be.

Yet millions of everyday fans view the Vegas line as a form of prognostication.  Media members — and we should flat know better — wonder openly about how the folks in the desert can like this team over that one.  And coaches use the line as motivation to their players: “They think that team’s 20 points better than you!”

In reality, the oddsmakers who set the initial opening line in Las Vegas each week are trying to come up with the number that will lead as many people to bet on Team Y as bet on Team X.  That’s why the lines move throughout the week.  Once the LVSC (Las Vegas Sports Consultants) provide casinos with its opening lines, the numbers start moving based on the action coming in on each side.

The casinos want the same amount of money to come in on each team.  Ideally, the money made off of people who bet the loser will pay off all the people who bet the winner.  The casinos lose no cash in those kinds of transactions but they do get to keep the vigorish which is what the casinos charge gamblers to place a sports bet.

Let’s say you want to win $100 on a game.  You would need to bet $110 on Team Y to cover the spread and the casino would keep $10 of those dollars as the vig.  Now, let’s say I put $110 on Team X to cover the spread.  If Team Y wins, you get your $110 back plus $100 for the win — from me in this case, not from the casino because there was an even amount of cash bet on each team.  And the extra $10 bucks I put down, the casino keeps that as the vigorish.

Still, the myth of the Vegas line continues.  When bowl season rolled ’round and SEC teams were favored in all nine of their bowl games, talkshow host after blogger after sportswriter incorrectly stated that the Las Vegas bookmakers really loved the SEC.  No.  Las Vegas bookmakers knew that the sports gamblers coming to Las Vegas in December would love the SEC.  Joe Q. Sportsfan knows that the SEC is dominant.  That average fan — the kind of guy who doesn’t bet every weekend — would therefore be more likely to put his money on Southeastern Conference teams.  From there, the spreads were moved until they were large enough to bring in an equal number of dollars on the teams those SEC squads were facing.

This is remedial stuff for you gamblers out there.  And for those scoffers who refuse to accept the fact that the Vegas line is not a true prediction on who’ll win a game, pick up a book or do a Google search on the topic.  Heck, you can get started here, here, or here.  And the next step is to ignore it when you hear someone declare that “Vegas thinks we’ll win by 10.”

There’s also a myth within the myth that has convinced many people that the Vegas Line is a prediction.  “The guys in Vegas are always right on the number!”

Again, no, they’re not.  Oh, they’re often on the number regarding what digits will convince an even number of people to be on both teams in a game, but they’re not as dead-on accurate as many believe when it comes to their opening lines.

During the 2012 season and the 2013 postseason, Southeastern Conference teams played a total of 122 football games.  There was an opening line for 103 of those contests.  Four opened as “pick ‘em” games and the other 15 had no line because the SEC teams were facing teams from the FCS.

For the sake of our exercise, we’ll toss out the “pick ‘em” and no-line games.  In the remaining 103 SEC contests, the opening odds from the LVSC were off by an average of 13.69 per game.  Yes, almost two touchdowns.  So much for, “the guys in Vegas always come close.”  That — like the point spread being a prediction — is a myth.  It only seems like the bookmakers are always close because we remember the times when they do hit the nail on the head.

For example, this year the opening line for South Carolina’s game with Kentucky had the Gamecocks favored by 21.  Turns out, Carolina won the game 38-17 by 21 points exactly.  Impressive.  Yet that was the only time all season the LSVC opening line matched the final point differential in an SEC game with the favored team winning.

Here’s a bit more for you to chew on…

Opening Line within 3 points or less of being correct:  11 of 103 possible games (10.6%)

Opening Line within 7 points or less of being correct:  29 of 103 possible games (28.1%)

Margin of victory 14 or more points off from the Opening Line:  49 of 103 possible games (47.5%)

Margin of victory 21 or more points off from the Opening Line:  24 of 103 possible games (23.3%)

In other words, the opening line was off by 21 or more points almost as many times as it was within a touchdown or less.  And the line was off by two TDs or more nearly half the time.

This isn’t to bash the bookmakers.  It’s to try to show you that they’re not even attempting to do what so many people out there think they are attempting to do.

Below are all 122 SEC games from 2012-13.  You can see who was favored, by how much, and how far off the opening line actually was at game’s end.

When the fall rolls around, maybe there will be a few less fans and media members running around saying, “Vegas thinks we’re gonna lose by 3!”

Read the rest of this entry »

The nation’s top high school basketball seniors will be in action on Wednesday during the annual McDonald’s All-American Game in Chicago.

Kentucky will have two signees participating in the game: guard Archie Goodwin and forward Alex Poythress. Goodwin is the more highly-rated player of the two, and he’s shown this week why Rivals considers him the nation’s 12th-best prospect for the class of 2012.

Just talked to NBA guy at McDonald’s All-American practice. Was impressed with Shabazz Muhammad, Brandon Ashley (AZ) & Archie Goodwin (UK).

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanCBS) March 27, 2012

Muhammad is another Kentucky target, although many believe UCLA leads for the forward from Las Vegas. He’s expected to announce his college decision on April 10.

Kentucky will be the only SEC school with signed or committed players in Wednesday’s game. That could change with a few players, including center Tony Parker and forward Devonta Pollard, undecided on their college decisions.

Click here to see the rosters for Wednesday’s All-American game.

Pat Dooley of The Gainesville Sun caught up with SEC commissioner Mike Slive for a quick, but good little Q&A today.  The focus is on Southeastern Conference basketball and much of the discussion centers on the league tournament and its future.

It’s a good read, but here’s the section that stood out to this writer:

Dooley: The SEC Football Championship and baseball tournament have permanent homes. Why does the league like to move the basketball tournament around?

Slive: As we have looked at basketball, we knew we wanted to be in Atlanta on a somewhat regular basis and at the same time our fans enjoy the somewhat smaller basketball venues, so we’ve experimented by moving it around. We’ve been to Florida, we’re in New Orleans this year and we have found Nashville has served us well, so, as you know, we’re projected to come to Bridgestone Arena a little more often. In the future, we’ll settle in to Atlanta, Nashville and another site yet to be determined.

Dooley: Do you see a time when it might stay in one place?

Slive: I don’t know. I wouldn’t say no, but there has been a tradition of moving it around. Many of the venues that we want to go to are also competing for NCAA second and third rounds and regionals, and they are not available on an annual basis.

Dooley: With the new additions to the league, will other cities become part of the rotation?

Slive: Yeah, I think we anticipate we will hear from St. Louis. Whether or not we’ll hear from cities in Texas I don’t know. We still have two open years. We’re going to be in Nashville a lot, but ’17 and ’18 are open.

Assuming the commissioner wasn’t being waterboarded during questioning, it’s possible that his answers should not be taken too literally.  Having said that, in Slive’s own words he expects the league tourney to “settle in to Atlanta, Nashville and another site.”

For a while now — most recently last week — we at MrSEC.com have called for the league to create a regular rotation through four host cities: Atlanta, Nashville, New Orleans and Memphis.

Atlanta and Nashville are easy to reach, centrally-located, tourist destinations.  Memphis is located within reach of several SEC fanbases and is also a tourist destination, but the city lost out on its bid to land the 2015 tourney.  Also, hosting a five-day event would force the NBA’s Memphis Grizzlies on a road trip for that bit of time (as is the case with the New Orleans Hornets this week).  In addition, there’s no telling how much interest University of Memphis booster and FedEx boss Fred Smith has in allowing 14 SEC schools to strut their stuff in front of West Tennessee recruits right in the FedExForum.

New Orleans — while a bit of a hike for most fans — is still New Orleans.  The fact that the SEC’s first first-round game today seems to have fewer fans in attendance than the other league tourneys currently on television doesn’t help the city’s case, but we expect Kentucky fans will invade tonight and tomorrow.

Currently the SEC is scheduled to play its tournament in Nashville in 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2019.  The tourney will move back to Atlanta for 2014.  (We know many would like to see the league bump the NBA’s Hawks for five days in order to play at the Philips Arena, rather than in the cavernous Georgia Dome.)

The tournament is still up for bid in 2017 and 2018.  Which brings us to another remark from the commissioner that jumped off the page.

Slive said that he anticipates hearing from St. Louis.  There was no mention of Kansas City.  Some folks in KC had suggested making a play for an SEC tourney and Missouri AD Mike Alden gave them his blessing.  We at MrSEC.com did not.  Kansas City is just too far away from most league schools and it’s very hard to imagine area fans paying attention to the SEC tourney while the Big 12 Tournament is going on elsewhere at the same time.

The commish also said he’s not sure if the SEC will hear from any cities in Texas.  As was the case in Missouri, there’s been some chatter among Texas A&M backers that Houston or even Dallas might bid to host a tournament.  As for Dallas, see: Kansas City.  Houston?  Well, we’d be okay with the league tossing the Aggies a bone and allowing a single tourney to be played there, but no more.

So where does all this leave the tourney?  Apparently in Nashville quite often.  That’s fine for yours truly.  Broadway is just steps from The Bridgestone Arena and that’s a good thing.  (Total sidenote — The downtown Hilton in Nashville ranks for me alongside the Royal Sonesta in New Orleans, the MGM Signature in Las Vegas, the Millenium Bostonian in Beantown, the Harbourview Inn in Charleston, the Edgewater Hotel in Seattle, the Hotel Birger Jarl in Stockholm, the NH Porta Rossa in Florence, and the Pennington Hotel — of course — in England’s Lake District as a personal favorite.  Free plugs for all.)  After Nashville in 2015 and ’16, here’s guessing Atlanta will add either 2017 or 2018 to its 2014 hosting duties.

That would leave one tourney in either ’17 or ’18 for St. Louis and the Gateway to the West.  And all of that sounds rather easy for multiple fanbases.  Anyone can get to Atlanta and Nashville.  And St. Louis would be a draw for Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Alabama and Ole Miss fans.  If you’ve seen the movie, “Up In The Air,” you know St. Louis has an airport for those inclined to wing it to a tourney, as well.

If the SEC created a regular rotation of Altlanta, Nashville, New Orleans and St. Louis — with a bit heavier dose of Atlanta and Nashville — Slive and company would get good marks from those of us here at MrSEC.com.

Something you can be sure the folks in the league offices yearn for everyday.

Sidenote – As noted above, the current four-day tournament will most likely become a five-day event next year when the SEC adds A&M and Mizzou.  Here’s how we believe that bracket should look.

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas have set the lines for this weekend’s SEC games and you can find them below.  Eleven league teams are in action, one team has an open date, and one future league squad will dip its toes into SEC waters a year early.

Here’s the full rundown (all times Eastern):


Mississippi State at Georgia
12:00pm on FSN
Georgia -7.5

Kentucky at LSU
12:00pm on SEC Network
LSU -28.5

Texas A&M at Arkansas
12:00pm on ESPN
Texas A&M -3

Buffalo at Tennessee
12:30pm on CSS
Tennessee -28.5

Auburn at South Carolina
3:30pm on CBS
South Carolina -11.5

Alabama at Florida
8:00pm on CBS
Alabama -5

Ole Miss at Fresno State
9:15pm on ESPN2
Fresno State – 4.5

LSU is scheduled to wear a new Nike Pro Combat uniform against Auburn later this season.  Making the rounds on the internet is this photo of an LSU all-white-with-old-gold uni seen at a Nike store in Las Vegas.

If this is LSU’s 2011 Pro Combat uni, it looks a heckuva lot better than the red pajamas Georgia wore last Saturday.

Judging by our travel plans, we must be pretty close to football season.

You see, each summer, a representative from MrSEC.com heads to Las Vegas to get the latest odds and the inside scoop from the biggest casino chains and bookmakers regarding the upcoming football and basketball seasons.

A quick tip from this year’s junket: If you’re ever in Las Vegas and a record amount of rain falls on the city… things could get sticky.  Literally.  One hundred degrees and no humidity is fantastic.  One hundred degrees and 45% humidity and you might as well be in Opelika.  Trust us.

Here are a couple of more serious tips we’ve picked up from the guys who actually set the odds before the season and during the football and basketball campaigns:


1.  Oddsmakers care only about who’s placing bets in their casinos.  What your bookie in Smyrna, Georgia’s doing has no impact.  They don’t get a piece of that action.  So when the experts are setting their boards each week, knowing who’ll be betting in Las Vegas is a key to making sure they get an even amount of money coming in on both squads in each game.

2.  For that reason, the folks in Vegas like three kinds of teams.  Name teams — the traditional powerhouses — will often pull in cash from the casual gambler.  The guy who bets once a year is more likely to put his money on Alabama, Notre Dame or Southern Cal than he is on Cincinnati (whether or not he knows a thing about those teams or not).   Teams with big alumni bases also get a little extra love from oddsmakers.  Ohio State, Texas, Arizona State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Florida have some of the largest enrollments in the country.  Therefore, it’s more likely that a Buckeye grad or a Gator fan will stroll into a casino and plunk down a few hundred bucks on his favorite team this fall.  Finally, West Coast teams often get a bump from the bookmakers, too.  Who bets in Vegas on most weekends?  A whole lot of folks from Arizona and Southern California.  Then toss in folks from across the rest of the Pac-12 region for good measure.  The oddsmakers know this and they factor it in to the lines they set.


With all that in mind, lets take a look at some of the future bets you could make on SEC teams as of late last week (we’ll include the teams with the 10 best odds overall, plus all listed SEC squads):


Odds of Winning BCS Championship — Caesar’s Entertainment

Now lets look at the odds as set by another family of casinos.  Again, we’ll list the 10 best odds on the board and the remaining SEC odds:


Odds of Winning BCS Championship — MGM Resorts

The numbers from the MGM casinos also include that group’s opening lines.  Using those opening lines we can see which teams gamblers have been putting cash on:


MGM Resorts BCS Championship Opening And Current Odds

(And just to reiterate our earlier statements regarding who bets and why they bet… Big-name, big-alumni-base Notre Dame has jumped from 25/1 to 8/1… West Coast Washington has jumped from 175/1 to 60/1… and nearby, big-alumni-base Arizona State has leapt all the way from 175/1 to 40/1.  Remember those insider nuggets passed to us by an oddsmaker or two when you’re looking at the odds this fall.)

Finally — just for you Kentucky fans out there — here are the latest SEC odds for next March’s NCAA basketball championship.  Again, the odds come from Caesar’s and MGM:


Odds of Winning Basketball Championship

Sunday is Father’s Day.  Maybe you’d forgotten.  Or maybe you had just planned on just giving Dad a tie.

Come on.  You can do better than that. 

Make this Father’s Day the one that you and your pop talk about for years to come.

Imagine giving your Dad up to 80 laps to put his foot on the gas and his hands on the wheel of an authentic NASCAR racing car.  600 horsepower.  Up to 165 miles per hour.  And you can ride along with him!

From Atlanta Motor Speedway to Texas Motor Speedway.  From Kentucky to Daytona to Las Vegas.  You pick the track (from 20 across America) and the time.

Just click right here for more details on the Richard Petty Driving Experience.  There’s literally nothing like it — the speed, the fun, the amazing story to tell afterwards.

Just imagine breaking down the details of a trip like that for your father this weekend.  Life’s short, make this Father’s Day the best he — and you — have ever had!

Father’s Day 2011 is just 10 days away.  Have you made your plans for Dad?  Are you thinking about giving him a tie?  Maybe one of those cheapie grills you can pick up at Target?

Come on.  That’s no way to thank someone for taking you to countless ballgames when you were a boy.  Do Pop a solid this year.  Give him something the two of you will never forget.  Something you can experience together, just like all those trips to see your favorite team play all those years ago.

Look on our site and you’ll see a number of ads for Richard Petty Driving Experience.  Now that is a one-of-a-kind way to thank your Dad for everything he’s done for you.

Imagine zipping around one of more than 20 tracks nationwide for anywhere from eight to 80 laps at up to 165 miles per hour! 

Atlanta, Bristol, Charlotte, Darlington, Kentucky, Richmond or many others.  And by others, yeah, we mean Las Vegas or even Daytona, too.

How do you beat a gift like that?  You don’t.  It’s the King of all Father’s Day gifts.  (Richard Petty… King… get it?)

Click right here to learn more about how you and your father can share an incredible Father’s Day experience this summer. 

With Mississippi State preparing for a game against St. Mary’s in Las Vegas tomorrow, Andy Katz reported today that “sources close to the team” have told ESPN that Rick Stansbury is “working off an investigation that (Elgin) Bailey was the instigator” in last week’s much-publicized fight with teammate Renardo Sidney.

Supposedly, Bailey did not “move his feet in the aisle while Sidney was trying to walk past him.”  (Well, that’s something to fight about.)  According to Katz’ sources, if Sidney had started the fight — and not Bailey — then Sidney would have already been dismissed from the team.

As for his eventual discipline, Stansbury said: “It’s going to be my decision.  Our athletic department can be a part of it, and Scott (Stricklin) and I have talked about it.  But the one thing I’ve always done in my program is to make the right decisions about my program.  This was an embarrassing situation for everybody.”

One would have to question at this point if bringing the controversial Sidney onto his team was, in fact, the right decision for his program.

“I don’t like the perception, but anybody who knows our program over the past 13 years knows we’ve had no problems,” Stansbury said.  “In my 13 years, there hasn’t been a public embarrassment.  This isn’t the norm.  It just happened.  I won’t understand why it happened.  It just happened.  And if people don’t do right in our program, then we’ll hold them accountable.”

And when might his discipline be handed down?

“When I get back from this trip, (the decision) will be pretty quick.”

When it comes to the folks in the Las Vegas casinos who set the lines, reputation matters.  And no league has a better reputation than the SEC.

Sports bettors knows that.  And Vegas bookmakers know that sports bettors know that. 

As oddsmakers have shared with us for our yearly “Here’s what Vegas thinks of the SEC” summertime pieces — also known as a business trip to Pleasureland for those of us here at MrSEC — the bookmakers set their lines in the hopes of drawing in even cash on both teams.  Therefore, they take into account public perception when setting their lines.

Again, no league’s got a better public perception than the SEC.  Which probably explains the following…


Las Vegas Bowl Odds

Ten SEC teams in bowls.  Eight of them are favored.  In fact, only two SEC teams have seen money go against them since the lines were first set: Arkansas (versus Ohio State) and LSU (versus Texas A&M).