If there is one myth that we at MrSEC.com would like to bust it’s the belief that the Vegas line is a prediction by the Las Vegas oddsmakers of who will win a particular game.  It isn’t.  It never has been.  It never will be.

Yet millions of everyday fans view the Vegas line as a form of prognostication.  Media members — and we should flat know better — wonder openly about how the folks in the desert can like this team over that one.  And coaches use the line as motivation to their players: “They think that team’s 20 points better than you!”

In reality, the oddsmakers who set the initial opening line in Las Vegas each week are trying to come up with the number that will lead as many people to bet on Team Y as bet on Team X.  That’s why the lines move throughout the week.  Once the LVSC (Las Vegas Sports Consultants) provide casinos with its opening lines, the numbers start moving based on the action coming in on each side.

The casinos want the same amount of money to come in on each team.  Ideally, the money made off of people who bet the loser will pay off all the people who bet the winner.  The casinos lose no cash in those kinds of transactions but they do get to keep the vigorish which is what the casinos charge gamblers to place a sports bet.

Let’s say you want to win $100 on a game.  You would need to bet $110 on Team Y to cover the spread and the casino would keep $10 of those dollars as the vig.  Now, let’s say I put $110 on Team X to cover the spread.  If Team Y wins, you get your $110 back plus $100 for the win — from me in this case, not from the casino because there was an even amount of cash bet on each team.  And the extra $10 bucks I put down, the casino keeps that as the vigorish.

Still, the myth of the Vegas line continues.  When bowl season rolled ’round and SEC teams were favored in all nine of their bowl games, talkshow host after blogger after sportswriter incorrectly stated that the Las Vegas bookmakers really loved the SEC.  No.  Las Vegas bookmakers knew that the sports gamblers coming to Las Vegas in December would love the SEC.  Joe Q. Sportsfan knows that the SEC is dominant.  That average fan — the kind of guy who doesn’t bet every weekend — would therefore be more likely to put his money on Southeastern Conference teams.  From there, the spreads were moved until they were large enough to bring in an equal number of dollars on the teams those SEC squads were facing.

This is remedial stuff for you gamblers out there.  And for those scoffers who refuse to accept the fact that the Vegas line is not a true prediction on who’ll win a game, pick up a book or do a Google search on the topic.  Heck, you can get started here, here, or here.  And the next step is to ignore it when you hear someone declare that “Vegas thinks we’ll win by 10.”

There’s also a myth within the myth that has convinced many people that the Vegas Line is a prediction.  “The guys in Vegas are always right on the number!”

Again, no, they’re not.  Oh, they’re often on the number regarding what digits will convince an even number of people to be on both teams in a game, but they’re not as dead-on accurate as many believe when it comes to their opening lines.

During the 2012 season and the 2013 postseason, Southeastern Conference teams played a total of 122 football games.  There was an opening line for 103 of those contests.  Four opened as “pick ‘em” games and the other 15 had no line because the SEC teams were facing teams from the FCS.

For the sake of our exercise, we’ll toss out the “pick ‘em” and no-line games.  In the remaining 103 SEC contests, the opening odds from the LVSC were off by an average of 13.69 per game.  Yes, almost two touchdowns.  So much for, “the guys in Vegas always come close.”  That — like the point spread being a prediction — is a myth.  It only seems like the bookmakers are always close because we remember the times when they do hit the nail on the head.

For example, this year the opening line for South Carolina’s game with Kentucky had the Gamecocks favored by 21.  Turns out, Carolina won the game 38-17 by 21 points exactly.  Impressive.  Yet that was the only time all season the LSVC opening line matched the final point differential in an SEC game with the favored team winning.

Here’s a bit more for you to chew on…

Opening Line within 3 points or less of being correct:  11 of 103 possible games (10.6%)

Opening Line within 7 points or less of being correct:  29 of 103 possible games (28.1%)

Margin of victory 14 or more points off from the Opening Line:  49 of 103 possible games (47.5%)

Margin of victory 21 or more points off from the Opening Line:  24 of 103 possible games (23.3%)

In other words, the opening line was off by 21 or more points almost as many times as it was within a touchdown or less.  And the line was off by two TDs or more nearly half the time.

This isn’t to bash the bookmakers.  It’s to try to show you that they’re not even attempting to do what so many people out there think they are attempting to do.

Below are all 122 SEC games from 2012-13.  You can see who was favored, by how much, and how far off the opening line actually was at game’s end.

When the fall rolls around, maybe there will be a few less fans and media members running around saying, “Vegas thinks we’re gonna lose by 3!”

Read the rest of this entry »

The national semifinal game, er, SEC Championship Game is upon us and we’ve put together our final game preview of the year.  Below you’ll find our take on college football’s biggest game this weekend.

Good luck to all you Alabama and Georgia fans out there…

#2 Alabama (11-1) vs #3 Georgia (11-1) at Atlanta

4:00pm ET on CBS

Opening Line:  UA -7.5

Current Line:  UA -7.5

Storylines:  To paraphrase a line from “Deliverance,” it ain’t nothin’ but the biggest frickin’ game in football.  The winner grabs the SEC title and a shot at undefeated Notre Dame in the BCS Championship Game, January 7th in Miami.  Another national crown would be the seventh in a row for the SEC.  This is Georgia’s second appearance in the SEC title game in two years.  It’s Alabama’s first trip back to the Atlanta game since 2009.  Mark Richt has won two SEC titles in four previous trips to the Georgia Dome.  Nick Saban is 3-1 in four previous SEC Championship Games with LSU and Alabama.

Common Opponents:

Alabama 33-14 over Ole Miss; Georgia 37-10 over Ole Miss

Alabama 42-10 over Missouri; Georgia 41-20 over Missouri

Alabama 44-13 over Tennessee; Georgia 51-44 over Tennessee

Alabama 49-0 over Auburn; Georgia 38-0 over Auburn

Opponents’ SEC Wins:  Alabama finished 7-1 in the SEC and its seven wins came over teams with a combined 18-38 SEC record.  Georgia finished 7-1 in the SEC and its seven wins came over teams with a combined 18-38 SEC record.

Only Defeats:  Alabama lost to 6-2 Texas A&M 29-24 in Tuscaloosa on November 10th.  Georgia lost to 6-2 South Carolina 35-7 in Columbia on October 6th.

Keys for Alabama:  Shore up the pass defense and win the special teams battle.  As we showed you earlier today, Alabama is second in the SEC defensive pass efficiency, a very important statistic when it comes to winning football games.  But the Tide hasn’t been perfect.  Over a four-week span covering games with Tennessee, Mississippi State, LSU and Texas A&M, Bama allowed 203, 209, 296 and 253 yards passing.  Against LSU, the Tide needed a last-minute touchdown to squeak out a win.  The next week against A&M, a late interception ended another comeback attempt in UA’s only loss of the season.  Georgia QB Aaron Murray has taken some guff in his career for not playing his best in “big” games, but his team has gone 21-5 over the last two seasons.  There were a few big games among those 21 wins.  UGA is without WR Michael Bennett and WR Marlon Brown and their absence will likely be felt tomorrow.  But the Tide can’t afford to let Murray and the Dawgs start moving the ball through the air.  As for our second key, Bama holds an advantage in the punt return battle, but Georgia has the edge in terms of kickoff returns.  Bama has allowed seven kickoffs of 30 or more yards this season (10th in the SEC).  The Dawgs are fourth in the SEC with six kickoffs returned of 30 or more yards.  The Crimson Tide has slight advantages just about everywhere else statistically, so as long as they don’t give up anything cheap in the kicking game.

Keys for Georgia:  Be stout against the run and play for 60 minutes.  Alabama ranks #1 in the SEC in rush defense (82.8 yards allowed vs SEC foes).  Georgia ranks #5 in the league (127.38 yards allowed vs SEC foes).  That’s a pretty sizable gap.  Add to that the fact that UA averaged 209.8 yards on the ground versus SEC opponents while Georgia averaged “just” 180.2 and you have a distinct advantage for Bama.  But Georgia played a different brand of defense down the stretch following a mid-season call out by safety Shawn Williams.  Todd Grantham’s D allowed just 1.88 yards per carry against Florida (the Gators averaged 4.33 yards per carry against the SEC), just 1.59 yards per carry against Ole Miss (3.08 yards per carry vs the SEC), and 2.11 yards per carry against Auburn (2.59 yards per carry vs the SEC).  Georgia will need for its defenders to wear their big boy pants tomorrow.  Tide QB AJ McCarron is second only to Murray in the SEC in passer rating.  Give him a running game and he becomes very, very difficult to stop.  The second key is a simple one — play a full 60-minute game.  LSU had Alabama on the ropes before allowing a five-play drive to cover 72 yards over a 43-second span in that game’s final two minutes.  The result was a 21-17 Tide victory.  The next week, Texas A&M raced out to a 20-0 first quarter lead and then watched the Tide gradually creep back into the game.  Nick Saban’s team got all the way to the Aggie two-yard-line before McCarron was picked off on fourth-down pass at the goal line with 1:36 to play.  You can’t play Alabama for 58 or 59 minutes.  Georgia will need to play its best 60 minutes of the year tomorrow in the Georgia Dome.

Extra Key for Both Teams:  Protect the football.  On the season — all games included — Alabama is plus-14 in turnover margin.  Georgia is plus-9.  In championship games, turnovers are killers.  UGA is the underdog in this one.  They have to win the turnover battle.  And Alabama can’t afford to get loose with the football and allow Georgia to hang around.

Pick:  Alabama 28, Georgia 20

Nine days ago we told you that the oddsmakers in Las Vegas had tabbed eight out of 10 SEC football teams as favorites in their bowl games.  Now, for those of you who like to do a little college football betting, we take another quick look at the Vegas lines to see where the money is going.

Below you’ll see each bowl’s opening line, the Las Vegas Hilton line from December 8th and the Hilton’s line from today.  Enjoy…

Sidenote — Though I’m giving free pub to the Hilton’s sportsbook, I personally am more of a Bellagio man.  Just me.