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Vegas And The SEC: Just How Accurate Are Those Opening Lines?

Here at MrSEC.com we’ve been known to travel out to Las Vegas on occasion in order to chat with various bookmakers about the lines that they set.  If you’ve read this site for any length of time, you know that we’re told just about every summer by just about every oddsmaker who’ll talk that:

 

1.  The line is set purely to bring in equal amounts of cash on both sides.

2.  The line is set with Las Vegas gamblers in mind.  The casino companies don’t care what deal you get from Vinny the Nose in Valdosta.  They make money off what people spend in their sportsbooks.

3.  For that reason, West Coast schools often get a little more love when it comes to setting the opening lines.  Ditto Big Ten schools with their enormous alumni bases.  Simple math and geography suggest casinos are more likely to be visited by Ohio State and UCLA alums on a fall Saturday than they are by Western Kentucky grads.

4.  Big names get a little bump, too, because they’re big names.  “Softcore” gamblers are more likely to throw money at some school they’ve heard of so big-time, traditional programs like Alabama, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma often see their lines fudged a point or two.

 

All that said, many fans still believe that the opening line set by Las Vegas Sports Consultants — and many Vegas’ books start with that company’s number — is truly a prediction of who will win a game and by what margin.  Whenever we write a piece trying to explain that that’s not what the books are doing and that they’re simply trying to make money based in large part off local gamblers’ perceptions of teams (re-read points 1-4 above), we always get a number of responses asking us something akin to this: “Then why are those numbers so often right?”

Honest answer?  They’re not so often right.

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Bad News For UGA As Leading Receiver Bennett Goes Down With ACL Tear

On Saturday, receiver Michael Bennett was hauling in five catches for 70 yards and two touchdowns in Georgia’s 51-44 win over Tennessee.  Yesterday he was helped off the Bulldogs’ practice field with a torn ACL in his right knee.

According to The Macon Telegraph, Bennett is now done for the season.  The redshirt sophomore leads Goergia with 24 catches for 345 yards and four touchdowns through five games.

Bennett announced via Twitter:

 

“God has a plan for me and everything happens for a reason.  Get ready for a historic season Dawg nation.  Our boys are gonna get it done!”

 

Expect Malcolm Mitchell — who just moved back to receiver from defensive back last week — to see his role expand with the loss of Bennett.  Bennett had basically picked up the slack while Mitchell served his stint on defense.

For the season, 12 different players have caught passes for the Dawgs: eight receivers, two tight ends and both freshman running backs.  If there’s a bright spot to this it’s that UGA is deep when it comes to pass-catchers.

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Will They Or Won’t They? UGA Player’s Tweet Raises Questions About Who’ll Play Saturday

Before the season even kicked off, it was reported far and wide — though never confirmed officially — that Georgia would be without the services of starting safety Bacarri Rambo and starting linebacker Alec Ogletree for the first four games of the year due to suspensions.

With four games now in the books, most expect Rambo and Ogletree to be back in action when Tennessee visits Athens for a CBS affair on Saturday.  Mark Richt is keeping mum in an attempt to keep the Vol coaching staff guessing, apparently.  But Chip Towers of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution felt strongly enough about the return of the duo to write the following yesterday afternoon:

 

“While no one is still coming right out and saying as much, we know from outside testimony, school policies, indirect hints and good old-fashioned horse sense that star linebacker Alec Ogletree and All-American free safety Bacarri Rambo are returning from four-game suspensions this week.”

 

Perhaps Towers feels comfortable writing that because Alec Ogletree’s twin brother — UGA fullback Alexander Ogletree — tweeted last Saturday that his brother and Rambo would be back and “on a mission” starting with practice this past Monday.

But just to keep things interesting, Rambo used his own Twitter account yesterday to muddy the water once more:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So will Rambo and Ogletree play or won’t they?  In the words of the Magic 8-Ball, “All signs point to yes.”

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Georgia Guard Compares His Game To Bradley Beal

Our Joseph Thompson recently caught up with Georgia point guard prospect Devin Mitchell as part of his ongoing series of Q&As with potential future SEC hoopsters.

Joseph Thompson: Who is interested in you?

Devin Mitchell: Miami, Ga Tech, Alabama, Stanford,, LaSalle, Florida and UCF

JT: Do you have any offers?

DM: I have offers from UGA, Boston University, College of Charleston, Mercer, Georgia State, Tennessee Tech, Kennesaw State, UAB, and Ole Miss

JT: What teams did you grow up watching?

DM: I grew up watching a lot of Chicago Bulls tapes from the 90′s. My dad was a big fan of the Bulls and Micheal Jordan, so I always watched him. As far as the pros. I watched Kobe and Allen Iverson growing up  as well. As far as college teams, I watched Illinois in the 2004-2005  season when they had Deron Williams and Luther Head. They are my  favorite team of all time!

JT: Who would you compare your game to?

DM: I would compare my game to a bigger version of Jason Terry and  Brad Beal.

JT: What are you looking for  in a NCAA program?

DM: My first thing that look for in a school is the coaching staff. I like to play for guys that I’m comfortable with because I play my best basketball when I’m comfortable; so coaching staff is always first. Second would have to be location.

JT: Do you have a dream school?

 DM: When I was growing up I always dreamed of playing for Michigan. I guess that would be like a dream school but besides that, not really.

JT: Are you a fan of an NCAA team?

 DM: I’m really not a fan of any team because I watch so much  basketball. I like everybody. I’m more of a fan of how teams play, and how they play as teams.

JT: Do you have any visits planned?

DM: Yes, I have visits that I’ll be taking in the next couple of  weeks. I’ll be at College of Charleston, Mercer, Tennessee, UGA,  Georgia Tech,Georgia State, UAB, and hopefully UCF and Miami.

JT: Have you visited any schools?

DM:Yes, I’ve visited UGA, Georgia Tech, UAB, Georgia State, and Kennesaw State recently.

JT: You had a great summer. What are your goals for the upcoming season?

DM: My personal goal is to take Collins Hill to the state playoffs   this year and make a run while there. We haven’t been in the last 3  years and it would be special for our seniors on the team to play in a State Playoff game before they head out and our fans deserve it!

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Wiggins: I’m ’100 Percent’ Committed

Cornerback Shaq Wiggins from Sandy Creek High School in Tyrone, Ga., maintains he’s “100 percent” committed to Georgia.

But that doesn’t mean he’s finished looking at other schools.

Wiggins told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution he plans to take official visits to five schools this fall: Georgia, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

“In talking with some players that came before me, one of the things they wish they would’ve done was to visit other schools,” Wiggins told the AJC. “I don’t want to make the same mistake. My parents want me to visit other schools to have something to compare to Georgia. But I don’t think anybody will compare to Georgia.”

Georgia fans will naturally worry about the strength of Wiggins’ commitment while he visits other schools. Wiggins said there’s no need.

“I can see where (UGA fans) might worry but there’s nothing to worry about,” he said. “I’m 100-percent committed to Georgia. I talked to the coaches over there on Monday. Nothing has changed between me and Georgia.”

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Dawg Fans, Meet Uga IX

At Georgia, folks take their mascots pretty seriously.  When an Uga passes, he’s given a funeral — really — a few words are said and he’s laid to rest with several of his famous forebears.  So for those of you new to the conference who might be wondering “Why the hell is he writing about a mascot?” now you know.  It’s big dang doin’s in Athens when a new Uga is named.

All that’s missing is the puff of white smoke from the Vatican chimney.

And today, Georgia has announced a new Uga (he’s the one on the left of the photo).  Russ — a half-brother to Uga VII — has received a “battlefield promotion” and will henceforth be known as Uga IX.  According to UGA president Michael Adams:

 

“Like many great memorable Bulldogs, Russ has earned the opportunity to serve in this capacity.  I am confident that he will represent the Bulldog Nation very well and continue the grand tradition of Ugas.”

 

Uga IX, the half-brother of Uga VII, huh?  Sounds a bit like the English monarchy, which is appropriate since Uga is an English bulldog.  But it’s only a matter of time before one of these Ugas wants a divorce and breaks from the Catholic church.  Say, maybe that’s why there’s no puff of Vatican-esque smoke.

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Boo! UGA’s Richt Expects Malcome To Be Starting Tailback (Maybe)

Ken “Boo” Malcome will likely be Georgia’s first tailback onto the field when Buffalo visits Athens next weekend.  According to Mark Richt, he’s “pretty sure” Malcome will get the start, but he also told reporters yesterday that “something could change between now and then.”

After briefly considering a transfer last September, Malcome worked his way into the #1 tailback slot for UGA’s spring game in April.  He’d come to split time with the mercurial Isaiah Crowell by 2011′s end, so it’s no surprise that he’ll be the likely starter to open 2012.  Especially since Crowell was booted from Richt’s squad in June.

How long Malcome remains the starter remains a question.  For that matter, if the Dawgs rotate their tailbacks, starting might not mean much anyway.

Currently Malcome is competing with senior Richard Samuel as well as freshmen Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall.  Marshall was the top tailback signee in February, but Gurley has led Georgia in rushing in its three fall scrimmages.

Malcome — a redshirt sophomore — says he won’t let Richt’s hint about starting slow him down.  According to The Athens Banner-Herald:

 

“It’s a relief.  I came from the bottom, and it’s just hard work.  It tells people hard work matters, it gets you where you want to go.  I’m not gonna take it for granted.  Because he said that, I’m not gonna let up.  It’s still gonna be all me on the field, telling the freshmen what to do.

I’m gonna be a leader.  I feel like I’ve been a leader the last couple weeks.”

 

Richt refuses to provide a definitive depth chart for his tailbacks saying that he doesn’t “even want the guys to know” so they will “keep fighting, keep competing.”  The coach said, “We’ll tell them the night before the game maybe.”

So there you have it.  Malcome will start.  Maybe.  How much he’ll play and who’ll be in line behind him if he does get the start won’t be known until the Dawgs step on the field for their opener.

Clear as mud.

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Richt Not Worried About Scholarship Numbers At UGA; I Am

“What?  Me panic?”

That seems to be the attitude of Georgia coach Mark Richt as the season quickly approaches… and his roster size slowly dwindles.  Over the summer, the number of scholarship players at UGA has been a hot topic.  Depending on who’s doing the counting the Bulldogs have seen that number drop below 70, inch back above 70 with a number of walk-ons handed schollys last week, or move all the way back up over the 75 mark.

According to Marc Wieszer of The Athens Banner-Herald, the Dawgs currently have 69 players who were “recruited to the program on scholarship.”  The NCAA maximum is 85.  All teams have attrition and injuries, but to be 16 scholarship-caliber athletes down before Game One is not a good thing.  Especially not in the SEC.

But Richt isn’t showing any sign of jitters to his team:

 

“I don’t think it’s going to hurt us… I think our scout teams will be fine.  Sometimes a really eager walk-on does better than a scholarship guy who’s bummed out he’s being redshirted.”

 

True or not, that’s not a spin you hear everyday.

The reality is that UGA is ranked #6 in the nation and is favored to win the SEC East.  Most league followers believe the Dawgs have an advantage in their division thanks to an “easy” schedule.  But anyone who’s watched the SEC over time knows there is really no such thing as an “easy” SEC schedule.  (Anyone remember Florida’s 2008 BCS championship team losing at home to Ole Miss?  Or LSU’s 2007 BCS championship team losing t0 Kentucky?)  Also, anyone who’s watched the SEC over time knows that contending for a BCS crown usually requires more than 69 scholarship players.

But no one seems to be paying much attention to the warning signs and from my vantage point that’s not a good thing for Richt.  He’s expected to reach Atlanta and field a Top 10 team in 2012.  If he doesn’t, it will be viewed as another disappointment on his watch.

“If we stay healthy throughout, we’ll be OK,” Richt claims.  And Wieszer astutely points out that SEC teams can only travel with 70 players for road games anyway.

But if UGA doesn’t stay healthy — and most teams don’t — they’ll start having to use more and more walk-ons to fill bigger and bigger backup roles.  That’s not the traditional recipe for championships.

Georgia should be good — very good, in fact — but I still believe the expectations are being set a bit too high considering the roster situation and the difficulty of their conference.  Time will tell.

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UGA Sack Master Jones Needs To Be Ready For Offenses’ Tactics

Georgia outside linebacker Jarvis Jones led the SEC in sacks with 13.5 last season.  But he wasn’t able to get to the quarterback in either of the Dawgs’ final two games, both losses.  Jones told The Athens Banner-Herald that he’s watched and re-watched the LSU (SEC Championship) and Michigan State (Capital One Bowl) games and that he’s “beaten myself to death because I can see myself making those plays.”

He didn’t get many opportunities to hit the QB against LSU because the Tigers put the ball in the air just 13 times.  But Michigan State’s Kirk Cousins dropped back 50 times to throw in Orlando.  So why did Jones go 0-for-50?

 

“I pressure him quite a bit, but came a second late.  They were cutting the mess out of me.  That’s something I’ve been working on.  They were cutting, chop-blocking.  It was crazy.  They were trying to tear my leg off.”

 

While that quote will no doubt rile up some Spartan faithful, UGA defensive coordinator Todd Grantham seems to think his star had better get used to more of the same this season.  “We watched tape and as a player he’s got to understand there’s a lot of good coaches in this league and they’re going to say, ‘All right, we’re not going to let this guy wreck the game.  We’re going to try to find ways to take him away.’  You’ve got to have answers for that.”

Even when someone’s cutting the mess out of you.

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    SEC Headlines – 8/17/12

    SEC West Football

    1.  Which Alabama player is most like Nick Saban?  AJ McCarron.  “They’re just like brothers.”

    2.  Auburn has “already put a good chunk of time” into their first few gameplans.

    3.  Through 15 practices at Arkansas, safety Ross Rasner says “everybody’s a little banged up.”

    4.  Nick Holt — the man filling the job left vacant by Jessica Dorrell’s departure — took on the administrative role in Fayetteville to help old pal John L. Smith.

    5.  LSU’s offense put up big, big numbers in yesterday’s scrimmage.

    6.  Les Miles didn’t let his team do their traditional “hit the bars after the final scrimmage” thing last night… the annual activity that led to Jordan Jefferson’s arrest last year.

    7.  Hugh Freeze was pleased with Ole Miss’ Thursday practice session.

    8.  It’s time to shift from camp mode to game mode at Mississippi State.

    9.  Johnny Manzeil’s confidence helped him win the starting quarterback job at Texas A&M.

     

    SEC East Football

    1.  Freshman linebacker Antonio Morrison has caught the eye of Florida defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.

    2.  Quinn also likes the work of freshmen D-linemen Dante Fowler and Jonathan Bullard.

    3.  Christian LeMay is getting more reps behind Aaron Murray at Georgia.

    4.  UGA’s tailbacks are all bunched together at the moment.

    5.  The Dawgs’ “dream team” signing class of 2011?  Uh, yeah… not so dreamy.

    6.  This writer says Joker Phillips’ seat at Kentucky isn’t as hot as Derek Dooley’s at Tennessee.

    7.  New defensive coordinator Lorenzo Ward is allowing his South Carolina defenders to be more aggressive.

    8.  After a week off campus at small Milligan College, Tennessee’s players “came back a new team.”

    9.  The Volunteers’ final scrimmage today will focus on situational football.  (No surprise… Bill Belichick begat Nick Saban and Nick Saban begat Derek Dooley.)

    10.  Vanderbilt’s James Franklin admitted that he doesn’t do his own voting in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, but he does look it over before a staffer sends it in.

     

    SEC Basketball

    1.  Florida and Kentucky will take part in a pair of hoops tournaments in 2017 to celebrate the 80th birthday of Nike founder Phil Knight.

    2.  A little fanfare please… John Calipari has announced the number assignments for his team this year.  (Only at Kentucky would this be a news story.  Not a knock.  A fact.)

     

    SEC/College News

    1.  “The SEC’s critics insist that it’s top-heavy and that it’s really a league comprised of two or three heavyweights and a lot of mediocre teams after that.”

    2.  Another writer — this one from Alabama! — believes Bill Curry would be a perfect fit for the imaginary role of college football commissioner.

    3.  Longtime Aggie player, coach and administrator John Thornton is retiring from Texas A&M.

    4.  Russ will continue to serve as a fill-in for Uga as Georgia’s mascot.

    5.  Kentucky and Tennessee won’t bring back their Beer Barrel trophy, but Coach Cal will be signing more limited-edition bourbon bottles this year.  Mixed messages, anyone?

    6.  Yahoo! Sports’ Pat Forde says the situation at North Carolina might cause “the ‘new NCAA’ to flex its precedent-setting muscles again.”

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